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Post by savzak on Aug 12, 2014 9:51:43 GMT -5
I've been in MNKD for 6 plus years. There has always been a dark cloud over it. And the market has mostly treated it that way. With FDA approval for T1 and T2 and now with SNY on board to market and run the additional trials, the market apparantly still sees the dark cloud. I see mostly silver lining at this point, notwithstanding the PPS. In the next year, maybe 18 months, we're going to find out who's been right all along. There will be no manipulating sales growth. It will either happen or it won't.
I'm looking to buy Jan 2016 options today.
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 12, 2014 9:58:15 GMT -5
Along with the sales growth, of which I'm confident, it would also be handy to see that the sales will definitely turn into bottom line profits. I know profitability will lag behind sales, but that certainly hasn't stopped a lot of high fliers in both tech and biotech.
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 12, 2014 10:15:14 GMT -5
I've been in MNKD for 6 plus years. There has always been a dark cloud over it. And the market has mostly treated it that way. With FDA approval for T1 and T2 and now with SNY on board to market and run the additional trials, the market apparantly still sees the dark cloud. I see mostly silver lining at this point, notwithstanding the PPS. In the next year, maybe 18 months, we're going to find out who's been right all along. There will be no manipulating sales growth. It will either happen or it won't.
I'm looking to buy Jan 2016 options today.
Great post, Savzak - in my case the silver hair grows denser! I do like the Jan 2016 Leaps - wish I would have waited to buy mine now instead of a couple months ago. More concerned about my Jan 2015 calls. Those Leaps are stinking cheap!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 12, 2014 10:32:24 GMT -5
I've been in MNKD for 6 plus years. There has always been a dark cloud over it. And the market has mostly treated it that way. With FDA approval for T1 and T2 and now with SNY on board to market and run the additional trials, the market apparantly still sees the dark cloud. I see mostly silver lining at this point, notwithstanding the PPS. In the next year, maybe 18 months, we're going to find out who's been right all along. There will be no manipulating sales growth. It will either happen or it won't.
I'm looking to buy Jan 2016 options today. So you're thinking it won't continue to fall? To me it seems there is still downside potential until some new news changes the sentiment equation... analyst upgrades, target increases or new coverage, announcement of new clinical trials to prove some of the benefits that might really propel Afrezza beyond the "no needle" market, buzz in diabetes community, ?
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 12, 2014 10:48:40 GMT -5
I've been in MNKD for 6 plus years. There has always been a dark cloud over it. And the market has mostly treated it that way. With FDA approval for T1 and T2 and now with SNY on board to market and run the additional trials, the market apparantly still sees the dark cloud. I see mostly silver lining at this point, notwithstanding the PPS. In the next year, maybe 18 months, we're going to find out who's been right all along. There will be no manipulating sales growth. It will either happen or it won't.
I'm looking to buy Jan 2016 options today.
Great post, Savzak - in my case the silver hair grows denser! I do like the Jan 2016 Leaps - wish I would have waited to buy mine now instead of a couple months ago. More concerned about my Jan 2015 calls. Those Leaps are stinking cheap!
I also have Jan '15 $10 calls. I can only hope that the price recovers so I can roll them to Jan '16s.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 12, 2014 10:52:54 GMT -5
I also have Jan '15 $10 calls. I can only hope that the price recovers so I can roll them to Jan '16s. I have Sept 20 $10 calls. I can only hope the 20 means 2020 instead of the 20th. Lizards have great capacity for wishful thinking.
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 12, 2014 10:56:55 GMT -5
Great post, Savzak - in my case the silver hair grows denser! I do like the Jan 2016 Leaps - wish I would have waited to buy mine now instead of a couple months ago. More concerned about my Jan 2015 calls. Those Leaps are stinking cheap!
I also have Jan '15 $10 calls. I can only hope that the price recovers so I can roll them to Jan '16s. Hang in there... Part of this is that smart investors see that this is cheap. Now, they just need to act on it. People are selling today to lock in profits and out of fear. Fear seems like the stronger force today. We were at $10 yesterday, $11 a month before. Now almost all risk is gone. Its gonna be a little bumpy.
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Post by papihoyos on Aug 12, 2014 11:40:30 GMT -5
I just read from George Rho's Article on SA that MNKD would be reimbursed for past R&D ($1.6B) through charges in COGS over five years. If correct, That HUGH. Get reimbursed for 65% your costs plus $925M. Can someone confirm? Also does anyone know whether the $925m milestone payments are also part of the JV costs, if so, then MNKD is actually paying for 35% of these costs.
The accounting on this transaction I can see is a nightmare. I see a lot of Fin46 issues.
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 12, 2014 11:48:10 GMT -5
I also have Jan '15 $10 calls. I can only hope that the price recovers so I can roll them to Jan '16s. I have Sept 20 $10 calls. I can only hope the 20 means 2020 instead of the 20th. Lizards have great capacity for wishful thinking. I feel the lizard's pain!!! I also have worthless Sep options...just not as many as my Jan '15s. Sorry...those aren't 2020 options! I wish they were!
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Post by cybergym66 on Aug 12, 2014 11:51:59 GMT -5
I also have Jan '15 $10 calls. I can only hope that the price recovers so I can roll them to Jan '16s. Hang in there... Part of this is that smart investors see that this is cheap. Now, they just need to act on it. People are selling today to lock in profits and out of fear. Fear seems like the stronger force today. We were at $10 yesterday, $11 a month before. Now almost all risk is gone. Its gonna be a little bumpy. I was *Smart* and bought some Jan'16s $5, $5.5 and $7 back in Jan/Feb, so I have some hope of making out OK. I do have some Jan'15s but again they are still ITM. Lots of pain today which could be a sign of a bottom...One can dream right?!
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 12, 2014 12:36:46 GMT -5
I would make sense that some of the cost that went into the whole process in Danbury would fairly be characterized within a broad concept of cogs, however, I'm no accountant. Beyond GAAP, it could easily also be that the parties agreed to that characterization, which would put an end to that, and it would be handled just that way. Now, MNKD might have to deal with if for tax purposes differently, but the do have a huge loss carry forward, so taxes are not a big issue.
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Post by rak5555 on Aug 12, 2014 13:35:45 GMT -5
In the next year, maybe 18 months, we're going to find out who's been right all along.
I'm looking to buy Jan 2016 options today. Your comment reminds me of this: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhRUe-gz690
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Post by lazio1982 on Aug 12, 2014 14:17:40 GMT -5
The Shorts have been preventing a run! Get those freaking shorts scared and we'll run back to $10. I'm long and own calls from August to January. This downgrade today was a joke. Just suppressing the stock. I'm still very bullish and believe we will see $25 in 2015
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Post by chicagpete on Aug 12, 2014 14:27:09 GMT -5
I respect "long" George Rho -and his seeking alpha article published today. The deal is most definitely a short term disappointment! I never invested in Mnkd for long term - And am fortunate to have liquidated half my holding yesterday morning at 9.89 - as most mnkd shareholders also had the opportunity to exit at a pps above 9. It is amazing to watch the so called longs complain about the daily pps fluctuations. This is clearly a 6-8 pps stock until actual sales begin materializing - albeit with less risk with this established and experienced partner plus some cash. I cringe when I hear posters are investing all 401k funds in a biotech like mankind.
I am am now reluctantly long on my remaining shares....... And will check back after the Super Bowl to see if any material pps movement has occurred with this stock. The exciting binary events have concluded for this stock until next year...........gamblers On this board - like me - should move on to the next value opportunity.
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 12, 2014 15:40:22 GMT -5
I certainly thought the floor would be $8, but I was clearly wrong. Given this, I'm keenly interested in how one might calculate Mannkind's valuation. By comparison, consider Puma (PBYI), a development stage biotech valued at $240+ per share and a $7B plus market cap without an approved drug. Is this company worth more than Mannkind? I realize that PUMA has only 28 million shares outstanding, but they have an overall market cap nearly three times that of Mannkind. Clearly, then, share price valuation is based on perception and market sentiment (and influenced by the percentage of the float in shares shorted). Given that Mannkind has FDA approval for Afrezza, a respected global partner with proven and existing sales in basal insulin (already used in combination with Afrezza during trials); exclusive manufacturing for their drug; and a novel, patented technology platform) one wonders how the market actually places a fair value on Mannkind and how they would arrive at any valuation.
GLTAL Chris-C
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