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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 12, 2014 15:50:16 GMT -5
I certainly thought the floor would be $8, but I was clearly wrong. Given this, I'm keenly interested in how one might calculate Mannkind's valuation. By comparison, consider Puma (PBYI), a development stage biotech valued at $240+ per share and a $7B plus market cap without an approved drug. Is this company worth more than Mannkind? I realize that PUMA has only 28 million shares outstanding, but they have an overall market cap nearly three times that of Mannkind. Clearly, then, share price valuation is based on perception and market sentiment (and influenced by the percentage of the float in shares shorted). Given that Mannkind has FDA approval for Afrezza, a respected global partner with proven and existing sales in basal insulin (already used in combination with Afrezza during trials); exclusive manufacturing for their drug; and a novel, patented technology platform) one wonders how the market actually places a fair value on Mannkind and how they would arrive at any valuation. GLTAL Chris-C It seems like there should be ballpark valuation based on looking at what sort of return Sanofi would need to justify $975M in payments. If one looked at what sort of return over say 5-10 yrs to justify that upfront... calculate what revenue that means based on 65% cut. You'd then have MNKD's revenue based on its 35% cut. Whatever comes out of that would seem to be a base upon which the value of technosphere (discounted by long time to next FDA approval) would be added. |
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Post by savzak on Aug 12, 2014 16:04:19 GMT -5
I certainly thought the floor would be $8, but I was clearly wrong. Given this, I'm keenly interested in how one might calculate Mannkind's valuation. By comparison, consider Puma (PBYI), a development stage biotech valued at $240+ per share and a $7B plus market cap without an approved drug. Is this company worth more than Mannkind? I realize that PUMA has only 28 million shares outstanding, but they have an overall market cap nearly three times that of Mannkind. Clearly, then, share price valuation is based on perception and market sentiment (and influenced by the percentage of the float in shares shorted). Given that Mannkind has FDA approval for Afrezza, a respected global partner with proven and existing sales in basal insulin (already used in combination with Afrezza during trials); exclusive manufacturing for their drug; and a novel, patented technology platform) one wonders how the market actually places a fair value on Mannkind and how they would arrive at any valuation. GLTAL Chris-C It seems like there should be ballpark valuation based on looking at what sort of return Sanofi would need to justify $975M in payments. If one looked at what sort of return over say 5-10 yrs to justify that upfront... calculate what revenue that means based on 65% cut. You'd then have MNKD's revenue based on its 35% cut. Whatever comes out of that would seem to be a base upon which the value of technosphere (discounted by long time to next FDA approval) would be added. The $975 won't be SNY's only costs. I think you'd need to know their projected commercialization and other costs up to the point where they've realized their return in order to calculate the valuation in that manner. |
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 12, 2014 17:09:26 GMT -5
I certainly thought the floor would be $8, but I was clearly wrong. Given this, I'm keenly interested in how one might calculate Mannkind's valuation. By comparison, consider Puma (PBYI), a development stage biotech valued at $240+ per share and a $7B plus market cap without an approved drug. Is this company worth more than Mannkind? I realize that PUMA has only 28 million shares outstanding, but they have an overall market cap nearly three times that of Mannkind. Clearly, then, share price valuation is based on perception and market sentiment (and influenced by the percentage of the float in shares shorted). Given that Mannkind has FDA approval for Afrezza, a respected global partner with proven and existing sales in basal insulin (already used in combination with Afrezza during trials); exclusive manufacturing for their drug; and a novel, patented technology platform) one wonders how the market actually places a fair value on Mannkind and how they would arrive at any valuation. GLTAL Chris-C Great point, Chris - if you extrapolated the share count from PUMA to MNKD, we should still be trading at around $15 per share WITH an approved product, partner, and platform pipeline. |
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