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Post by ktim on Jan 14, 2020 10:57:49 GMT -5
Would it be crazy dreaming to think Afrezza might someday be 20% of that $7B? At current outstanding shares that would be roughly $6 EPS? Yes The vast majority of the meal time insulin sold is in countries where Regular human insulin is the standard. This is because in those countries it typically only costs $2 - $6 for a vial. This is unlikely to change because it's what people there can afford to pay. $7B must only be for RAA market. It was around $6B a decade ago. So I think that is the correct framing for addressable market. Will we reach 20%... how long would it take... will it then still be $7B market or eroded by biosimilars and potential government regulation/intervention ? ? ?
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Post by mcbone on Jan 14, 2020 11:14:28 GMT -5
Would it be crazy dreaming to think Afrezza might someday be 20% of that $7B? At current outstanding shares that would be roughly $6 EPS? Yes The vast majority of the meal time insulin sold is in countries where Regular human insulin is the standard. This is because in those countries it typically only costs $2 - $6 for a vial. This is unlikely to change because it's what people there can afford to pay. I don't understand your comment. Afrezza is not competing with human insulin available in 3rd world countries. It's competing with a $7B market that includes Humalog, Novalog, Apidra, Fiasp, etc. Indeed, based on Afrezza superiority and ease of use, many here (including me) believe the "crazy" thing is that Afrezza market penetration has been so low.
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Post by cjm18 on Jan 15, 2020 12:14:39 GMT -5
Yes The vast majority of the meal time insulin sold is in countries where Regular human insulin is the standard. This is because in those countries it typically only costs $2 - $6 for a vial. This is unlikely to change because it's what people there can afford to pay. I don't understand your comment. Afrezza is not competing with human insulin available in 3rd world countries. It's competing with a $7B market that includes Humalog, Novalog, Apidra, Fiasp, etc. Indeed, based on Afrezza superiority and ease of use, many here (including me) believe the "crazy" thing is that Afrezza market penetration has been so low.
Us market is at least half of 7b. What’s one percent of 4b? “U.S. market accounting for 15 percent of global insulin users but almost 50 percent of its worldwide revenues” www.google.com/amp/s/prospect.org/api/amp/health/insulin-racket/www.fiercepharma.com/special-report/5-humalogUSA sales vs total sales is over 50%
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 15, 2020 12:54:01 GMT -5
Don't forget, I said 20% of prandial market. aged already told me that wasn't realistic, but I gently ignored him.
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Post by matt on Jan 15, 2020 13:11:49 GMT -5
I don't understand your comment. Afrezza is not competing with human insulin available in 3rd world countries. It's competing with a $7B market that includes Humalog, Novalog, Apidra, Fiasp, etc. Indeed, based on Afrezza superiority and ease of use, many here (including me) believe the "crazy" thing is that Afrezza market penetration has been so low. Certainly the competition is mainly with RAA, mainly Humalog, Novolog, and FIASP. However, with Lilly and Novo getting sick and tired of being blamed for high prices that are due mainly to the high rebates paid to the PBMs, the manufacturers have started to cut rebates and price a monthly supply at $99. While that makes perfect sense for Lilly and Novo to do that, it creates an even larger price disparity with Afrezza. Since MNKD cannot cut the price for Afrezza to $99 for a month's supply and still make money, low penetration will continue until the price difference goes away or at least shrinks to a less significant amount. Can Afrezza compete at a 100% price premium? Maybe, but anything more than that and the patients will push back.
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Post by mango on Jan 15, 2020 14:33:42 GMT -5
I don't understand your comment. Afrezza is not competing with human insulin available in 3rd world countries. It's competing with a $7B market that includes Humalog, Novalog, Apidra, Fiasp, etc. Indeed, based on Afrezza superiority and ease of use, many here (including me) believe the "crazy" thing is that Afrezza market penetration has been so low. Certainly the competition is mainly with RAA, mainly Humalog, Novolog, and FIASP. However, with Lilly and Novo getting sick and tired of being blamed for high prices that are due mainly to the high rebates paid to the PBMs, the manufacturers have started to cut rebates and price a monthly supply at $99. While that makes perfect sense for Lilly and Novo to do that, it creates an even larger price disparity with Afrezza. Since MNKD cannot cut the price for Afrezza to $99 for a month's supply and still make money, low penetration will continue until the price difference goes away or at least shrinks to a less significant amount. Can Afrezza compete at a 100% price premium? Maybe, but anything more than that and the patients will push back. Sanofi, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk have all conspired in insulin price fixing. Not surprised, however, given all threes’ ethical track records (just do a simple search of each company on the Department of Justice website to get an idea of the criminal lengths these three companies will take to make a buck). Harris County sues Sanofi, Eli Lilly, and Novo Nordisk for Insulin Price Fixing 11/21/2019Lawsuit claims pharmaceutical firm engaged in insulin price fixing, and misled investors. 8/28/2019Sanofi, Novo Nordisk and Lilly named in patients' price fixing suit 1/30/2017
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Post by slugworth008 on Jan 15, 2020 18:48:58 GMT -5
I don't understand your comment. Afrezza is not competing with human insulin available in 3rd world countries. It's competing with a $7B market that includes Humalog, Novalog, Apidra, Fiasp, etc. Indeed, based on Afrezza superiority and ease of use, many here (including me) believe the "crazy" thing is that Afrezza market penetration has been so low. Certainly the competition is mainly with RAA, mainly Humalog, Novolog, and FIASP. However, with Lilly and Novo getting sick and tired of being blamed for high prices that are due mainly to the high rebates paid to the PBMs, the manufacturers have started to cut rebates and price a monthly supply at $99. While that makes perfect sense for Lilly and Novo to do that, it creates an even larger price disparity with Afrezza. Since MNKD cannot cut the price for Afrezza to $99 for a month's supply and still make money, low penetration will continue until the price difference goes away or at least shrinks to a less significant amount. Can Afrezza compete at a 100% price premium? Maybe, but anything more than that and the patients will push back. Until the PBM's realize that Afrezza will save serious dollars in reduced hypo events - it is what it is. If and when that light bulb goes off then we are golden. That should be the thrust of MNKD's talk track with those weasels. IMO
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Post by ktim on Jan 15, 2020 18:56:59 GMT -5
Certainly the competition is mainly with RAA, mainly Humalog, Novolog, and FIASP. However, with Lilly and Novo getting sick and tired of being blamed for high prices that are due mainly to the high rebates paid to the PBMs, the manufacturers have started to cut rebates and price a monthly supply at $99. While that makes perfect sense for Lilly and Novo to do that, it creates an even larger price disparity with Afrezza. Since MNKD cannot cut the price for Afrezza to $99 for a month's supply and still make money, low penetration will continue until the price difference goes away or at least shrinks to a less significant amount. Can Afrezza compete at a 100% price premium? Maybe, but anything more than that and the patients will push back. Until the PBM's realize that Afrezza will save serious dollars in reduced hypo events - it is what it is. If and when that light bulb goes off then we are golden. That should be the thrust of MNKD's talk track with those weasels. IMO They need a large enough study to actually show that. If they can show short term cost reduction then insurers and self insured companies would certainly pay attention.
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 15, 2020 22:57:58 GMT -5
Until the PBM's realize that Afrezza will save serious dollars in reduced hypo events - it is what it is. If and when that light bulb goes off then we are golden. That should be the thrust of MNKD's talk track with those weasels. IMO They could follow Medtronics approach with their pumps and refund the costs of ER visits or diabetes related hospitalization of users back to the insurers. That would attract attention.
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Post by slugworth008 on Jan 15, 2020 23:50:27 GMT -5
Until the PBM's realize that Afrezza will save serious dollars in reduced hypo events - it is what it is. If and when that light bulb goes off then we are golden. That should be the thrust of MNKD's talk track with those weasels. IMO They could follow Medtronics approach with their pumps and refund the costs of ER visits or diabetes related hospitalization of users back to the insurers. That would attract attention. Oh - I like that idea!
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Post by bababooey on Jan 16, 2020 0:26:44 GMT -5
prcgorman2 weren't you the author of this post I have copied and pasted below? This was calculated before the reverse split...Therefore the reverse split adjusted price prediction is nearly $11,000/share. Now don't you find that a little silly? $11,000 per share? Sometimes one needs to be reminded how out of touch of reality they can be... "Let's scare the shorts with some math Approx 400 million diabetics world wide; let's assume that 1/4 that is dependent on meal time insulin, that's 100 million. Let's assume that 1/4 of that population can afford Afrezza, 25 millions at $2000/pt/yr. That is a $50 billion annual revenue. Isn't that almost the same as Apple computer? At revenue of $50 billion with PE ratio of 20, with 430 million shares puts share price at $2,325/sh. That is insane amount of money. What mnkd needs to do is convince some deep pocket to pay a huge upfront cash to move the launch. We are trading at $1, unbelievable!!! If they get this into international markets I would see no reason to sell. This is way too cheap. The fact there are so many stupid toolbags trying to convince us otherwise tells me they know this too. They are working WAY TOO HARD to convince us that we need to sell. In fact, it is down right hilarious and I just keep buying more! "
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Post by slugworth008 on Jan 16, 2020 1:03:29 GMT -5
prcgorman2 weren't you the author of this post I have copied and pasted below? This was calculated before the reverse split...Therefore the reverse split adjusted price prediction is nearly $11,000/share. Now don't you find that a little silly? $11,000 per share? Sometimes one needs to be reminded how out of touch of reality they can be... "Let's scare the shorts with some math Approx 400 million diabetics world wide; let's assume that 1/4 that is dependent on meal time insulin, that's 100 million. Let's assume that 1/4 of that population can afford Afrezza, 25 millions at $2000/pt/yr. That is a $50 billion annual revenue. Isn't that almost the same as Apple computer? At revenue of $50 billion with PE ratio of 20, with 430 million shares puts share price at $2,325/sh. That is insane amount of money. What mnkd needs to do is convince some deep pocket to pay a huge upfront cash to move the launch. We are trading at $1, unbelievable!!! If they get this into international markets I would see no reason to sell. This is way too cheap. The fact there are so many stupid toolbags trying to convince us otherwise tells me they know this too. They are working WAY TOO HARD to convince us that we need to sell. In fact, it is down right hilarious and I just keep buying more! " After 6+ years of long pain and unfulfilled expectations - I'll start adding after the PPS breaks $2 and holds. Still massive upside but I'll feel better with that pps traction. JMHO And 'yes' they are working 'way too hard' to convince us to sell - agreed.
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Post by ktim on Jan 16, 2020 2:25:37 GMT -5
prcgorman2 weren't you the author of this post I have copied and pasted below? This was calculated before the reverse split...Therefore the reverse split adjusted price prediction is nearly $11,000/share. Now don't you find that a little silly? $11,000 per share? Sometimes one needs to be reminded how out of touch of reality they can be... "Let's scare the shorts with some math Approx 400 million diabetics world wide; let's assume that 1/4 that is dependent on meal time insulin, that's 100 million. Let's assume that 1/4 of that population can afford Afrezza, 25 millions at $2000/pt/yr. That is a $50 billion annual revenue. Isn't that almost the same as Apple computer? At revenue of $50 billion with PE ratio of 20, with 430 million shares puts share price at $2,325/sh. That is insane amount of money. What mnkd needs to do is convince some deep pocket to pay a huge upfront cash to move the launch. We are trading at $1, unbelievable!!! If they get this into international markets I would see no reason to sell. This is way too cheap. The fact there are so many stupid toolbags trying to convince us otherwise tells me they know this too. They are working WAY TOO HARD to convince us that we need to sell. In fact, it is down right hilarious and I just keep buying more! " Guess their hard work back then was really aimed at convincing naive longs to buy the shares they were shorting. And comparatively speaking it wasn't that much effort for them... certainly not compared to how handsomely they got rewarded for it.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 16, 2020 7:04:30 GMT -5
I didn’t see a link to the post. I suspect that may have been edited. The naive assumptions do look like something I might have posted 5 years ago on Yahoo! Message Boards. Some of the wording doesn’t look like me. I can’t remember saying toolbags but maybe I did. I used to be a lot more vehement about the shorting. Now I just look at it like part of life. You know, like terrorists and theives. Now, truth be told, I get that shorting is a legal and legimitate way to make money using a “hedge” strategy, but honestly I think anymore it is used to destroy value for the benefit of the short. I would be heartily in favor of a market that did not permit shorting. I am curious if many companies would be willing to list there. SOX caused many companies to go private and to de-list. Did the rise of “hedge” funds contribute to that too? Don’t know. But as to whether I wrote that post or not. Maybe I did. Not everything I write is good. Same for bababooey. :-)
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 16, 2020 7:06:15 GMT -5
P.S., I like it that bababooey is trying to trash me. It makes it clear what his agenda is.
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