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Post by buyitonsale on Jan 14, 2020 1:31:04 GMT -5
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Post by letitride on Jan 14, 2020 7:01:32 GMT -5
So if Amgen buys out MannKind at $2-$3 a share (realistic premium given current PPS), would people be cool with that? Was that $23
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 14, 2020 7:21:32 GMT -5
LOL. A buyout implies 51% ownership does it not? How long does it take to accumulate ~100 million shares? And since you have to declare ownership past 5% accumulation and people then know you’re accumulating, what does that do to the PPS? How much do you pay for the remaining 46% required for the buyout? And current PPS is whatever it is, but what is the average cost basis for the sellers? MNKD is apparently mostly retail, and I suspect longs. And we’ve mentioned before that if some company was willing to buy MNKD at whatever price, would other companies decide they might want to block that action by becoming the acquirers? Why should we assume there have not been BO offers before? I remember the crazy dude at one of the ASMs who said he represented Chinese who wanted to buy MNKD. I took him about as seriously as I do this conversation.
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 14, 2020 16:58:05 GMT -5
As far as we know, that crazy dude at the ASM was the closest we've gotten to a legit buyout offer (i.e. not very). Don't we think if there'd ever been a serious approach from a BP we'd have gotten wind of it?
And if some company wanted to buyout MNKD, wouldn't they present the offer to the company and then it could go to a vote of shareholders? A $3 per share offer would be a robust premium, so it's reasonable to presume such an offer would get shareholder approval. I'm assuming those of us on this message board are way more hardcore and emotionally invested (so we might not like that price) than most shareholders.
But i'm with you prcgorman in how seriously you're taking this convo. There ain't no buyout on the way.
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Post by awesomo on Jan 14, 2020 17:37:35 GMT -5
As far as we know, that crazy dude at the ASM was the closest we've gotten to a legit buyout offer (i.e. not very). Don't we think if there'd ever been a serious approach from a BP we'd have gotten wind of it? And if some company wanted to buyout MNKD, wouldn't they present the offer to the company and then it could go to a vote of shareholders? A $3 per share offer would be a robust premium, so it's reasonable to presume such an offer would get shareholder approval. I'm assuming those of us on this message board are way more hardcore and emotionally invested (so we might not like that price) than most shareholders. But i'm with you prcgorman in how seriously you're taking this convo. There ain't no buyout on the way. Just like every other vote, if the board/management wants it, it will happen. Retail investors have basically zero chance of influencing anything. But I've seen this kuka guy on StockTwits and he's about as big of a pumper as can be.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 14, 2020 19:10:05 GMT -5
Call me crazy but I still believe Al. He once told me Mannkind was worth significantly more than MiniMed. Clearly he believed it based on his investment in Mannkind. Based on afrezza clinical results to date afrezza is outperforming my expectations and probably that of most. The big question was long term lung issues and to date there have been none and some are reporting better FEV1. After DXCM's presentation yesterday, its as if Kevin Sayer is reading our Proboards predicting TIR to replace A1c and the major issue being postprandial BG control. I would not mind Kevin doing a MNKD buy in as he did with Onduo. Does Kevin just want to be the "Security Monitor"? www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8FNVsbnwWE
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 14, 2020 19:13:02 GMT -5
I assume a low PPS BO offer would be rejected, but it might drive a quick run for the exits by those with a considerable short position in the price range MNKD has inhabited for most of the last few years. And that might temporarily boost the price well above the offer. Could make for a good trade around a core if the offer was rejected. And I think that will be my last post on this subject for a while.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 14, 2020 19:20:10 GMT -5
I have reason to believe that Kevin Sayer personally bought Mannkind stock in 2017. He’s probably stumped at the lack of uptake.
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Post by lennymnkd on Jan 14, 2020 19:24:42 GMT -5
Call me crazy but I still believe Al. He once told me Mannkind was worth significantly more than MiniMed. Clearly he believed it based on his investment in Mannkind. Based on afrezza clinical results to date afrezza is outperforming my expectations and probably that of most. The big question was long term lung issues and to date there have been none and some are reporting better FEV1. After DXCM's presentation yesterday, its as if Kevin Sayer is reading our Proboards predicting TIR to replace A1c and the major issue being postprandial BG control. I would not mind Kevin doing a MNKD buy in as he did with Onduo. Does Kevin just want to be the "Security Monitor"? www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8FNVsbnwWEKevin mentioned Lilly as a partner , but also quickly mentioned verily.. do we have some sort of alliance with verily / sounds familiar.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 14, 2020 19:37:26 GMT -5
So you know that my name isn't Kevin Sayer ... because I started buying in 2014. Kevin might be stumped, but I've been happy that the pps has been down and allowed me to buy a LOT more shares to average down.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by ktim on Jan 15, 2020 19:10:37 GMT -5
Call me crazy but I still believe Al. He once told me Mannkind was worth significantly more than MiniMed. Clearly he believed it based on his investment in Mannkind. Based on afrezza clinical results to date afrezza is outperforming my expectations and probably that of most. The big question was long term lung issues and to date there have been none and some are reporting better FEV1. After DXCM's presentation yesterday, its as if Kevin Sayer is reading our Proboards predicting TIR to replace A1c and the major issue being postprandial BG control. I would not mind Kevin doing a MNKD buy in as he did with Onduo. Does Kevin just want to be the "Security Monitor"? www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8FNVsbnwWEBased on discussions here on proboards when Afrezza was first approved I think many did not expect issues with it that have materialized such as the units seeming to be off vs RAA resulting in titration problems, coughing, need for follow on doses with seeming reluctance to do that... all presumably contributing to retention having been low. Perhaps you were not a pie in the sky Afrezza supporter back then, though I think you were. I suppose that is a tried and true rhetorical technique to always say that things are even better than one could have hoped for. Even when it comes to a trials like STAT or the One Drop study, which were good results... back years ago I would have expected hit it out of the park good results.
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Post by georgethenight2 on Jan 15, 2020 19:28:29 GMT -5
Call me crazy but I still believe Al. He once told me Mannkind was worth significantly more than MiniMed. Clearly he believed it based on his investment in Mannkind. Based on afrezza clinical results to date afrezza is outperforming my expectations and probably that of most. The big question was long term lung issues and to date there have been none and some are reporting better FEV1. After DXCM's presentation yesterday, its as if Kevin Sayer is reading our Proboards predicting TIR to replace A1c and the major issue being postprandial BG control. I would not mind Kevin doing a MNKD buy in as he did with Onduo. Does Kevin just want to be the "Security Monitor"? www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8FNVsbnwWENot crazy. I remember watching a video of him joking around about MNKD buying Pfizer. Many facts about diabetes still hold true. Nearly 500m with diabetes world wide. 700m estimated by 2045. It is an epidemic. We have a lot of potential customers, so to speak. Al new his stuff. He knew Afrezza's potential. Sadly, BPs do also, thus the constant struggle for adoption. But with nearly 1 in 16 people affected by this disease, it is only going to get worse. Thus. You are standing on the right side of the trade. As for me, nothing less than $200 a share. Looking at all distruptive tech, the pattern is the same. Old oligarchy fights against it. A few early adopters have success. Old oligarchy changes stance. Wide spread adoption by all.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 15, 2020 19:59:55 GMT -5
Call me crazy but I still believe Al. He once told me Mannkind was worth significantly more than MiniMed. Clearly he believed it based on his investment in Mannkind. Based on afrezza clinical results to date afrezza is outperforming my expectations and probably that of most. The big question was long term lung issues and to date there have been none and some are reporting better FEV1. After DXCM's presentation yesterday, its as if Kevin Sayer is reading our Proboards predicting TIR to replace A1c and the major issue being postprandial BG control. I would not mind Kevin doing a MNKD buy in as he did with Onduo. Does Kevin just want to be the "Security Monitor"? www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8FNVsbnwWENot crazy. I remember watching a video of him joking around about MNKD buying Pfizer. Many facts about diabetes still hold true. Nearly 500m with diabetes world wide. 700m estimated by 2045. It is an epidemic. We have a lot of potential customers, so to speak. Al new his stuff. He knew Afrezza's potential. Sadly, BPs do also, thus the constant struggle for adoption. But with nearly 1 in 16 people affected by this disease, it is only going to get worse. Thus. You are standing on the right side of the trade. As for me, nothing less than $200 a share. Looking at all distruptive tech, the pattern is the same. Old oligarchy fights against it. A few early adopters have success. Old oligarchy changes stance. Wide spread adoption by all. He was joking about buying Merck :-)
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 15, 2020 20:19:26 GMT -5
Call me crazy but I still believe Al. He once told me Mannkind was worth significantly more than MiniMed. Clearly he believed it based on his investment in Mannkind. Based on afrezza clinical results to date afrezza is outperforming my expectations and probably that of most. The big question was long term lung issues and to date there have been none and some are reporting better FEV1. After DXCM's presentation yesterday, its as if Kevin Sayer is reading our Proboards predicting TIR to replace A1c and the major issue being postprandial BG control. I would not mind Kevin doing a MNKD buy in as he did with Onduo. Does Kevin just want to be the "Security Monitor"? www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8FNVsbnwWEBased on discussions here on proboards when Afrezza was first approved I think many did not expect issues with it that have materialized such as the units seeming to be off vs RAA resulting in titration problems, coughing, need for follow on doses with seeming reluctance to do that... all presumably contributing to retention having been low. Perhaps you were not a pie in the sky Afrezza supporter back then, though I think you were. I suppose that is a tried and true rhetorical technique to always say that things are even better than one could have hoped for. Even when it comes to a trials like STAT or the One Drop study, which were good results... back years ago I would have expected hit it out of the park good results. I think anyone who understood the Affinity 1 trial results or were at the Adcom when the FDA accused the one doctor of "cheating" for achieving such outstanding results because he did properly titrate and encouraged 2nd dosing had a pretty could sense proper titration with T1s was going to require some work. In fact Al Mann discussed this at John Hopkins. However, the big market for afrezza is not with the T1s. Its with the T2s. In fact many believed afrezza was not even going to get T1 approval and without the Adcom it probably would not have based on the Affinity 1 A1c results and the concern of lung issues. The big question for me and I think some others was long term lung issues. Yes, MNKD did all kinds of studies and yes, the results all looked great but could afrezza really be this good? Who really knew? We hoped but no one would really know for years. Now we know and don't have to worry about "exploding" lungs as some predicted. As far as calling afrezza cartridges in units was IMO the greatest blunder Al Mann made and I have been saying that for years. He was trying to overcome the Exubera dosing issue and thought it would make it easier. It just made a big mess. They should have been called small, medium and large and there should have never been any association to the RAAs. Al, IMO did not appreciate that he needed to distance afrezza from all past "insulins" especially the "Rapid Acting" analogs. afrezza is not an analog and should have no association to them. He should have told people it was super glucose powder and never mentioned the word insulin in the same sentence with afrezza. As far as STAT what you are looking at are outstanding results based on the 2 hour profile of afrezza. The fact is you have 100% TIR during non-sleeping hours. With One Drop you have nearly a 1 point drop in A1c. Again an outstanding result even though A1c is not telling the story. The story is as Kevin Sayer laid out on Monday.
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Post by letitride on Jan 15, 2020 20:27:15 GMT -5
Back to whats driving recent volume? I bought more today at 1.49. Lets Go!
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