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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 11, 2020 9:24:38 GMT -5
A friend of mine and I were discussing the recent volume and I asked him what he thought was driving the volume. “The script counts”, he quipped. We both chuckled. But he followed it with, “I have no idea, maybe the warrants expiring?”
Either way it’s welcome, but I am curious what the board thinks is driving the volume.
Below is a short list of possible driving factors (in no particular order of liklihood or importance).
* Brazil getting underway * Retention improving (thank you VDEX, even if your Rx counts are paltry) * Warrants expiring * Recent study publications * Impending pediatric approval * Someone is exiting their short position * Someone is pumping with the intention of dumping (aka fake volatility) * Someone is acquiring
I have little basis for a hunch it is the last one, but it just feels right. I suspect it’s UTHR. If they are, they have to announce it once they own more than 5%. Complete speculation though. Whatever is going on, I’m liking 2020 so far!
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Post by cjm18 on Jan 11, 2020 9:39:33 GMT -5
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 11, 2020 10:26:59 GMT -5
Good thread. Thank you for the redirection cjm18.
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Post by golfeveryday on Jan 11, 2020 11:34:46 GMT -5
A friend of mine and I were discussing the recent volume and I asked him what he thought was driving the volume. “The script counts”, he quipped. We both chuckled. But he followed it with, “I have no idea, maybe the warrants expiring?” Either way it’s welcome, but I am curious what the board thinks is driving the volume. Below is a short list of possible driving factors (in no particular order of liklihood or importance). * Brazil getting underway * Retention improving (thank you VDEX, even if your Rx counts are paltry) * Warrants expiring * Recent study publications * Impending pediatric approval * Someone is exiting their short position * Someone is pumping with the intention of dumping (aka fake volatility) * Someone is acquiring I have little basis for a hunch it is the last one, but it just feels right. I suspect it’s UTHR. If they are, they have to announce it once they own more than 5%. Complete speculation though. Whatever is going on, I’m liking 2020 so far! the first 3 on your list could definitely be doing it. The last one related to UTHR is something I have been thinking about and possibly expecting for a while. There are several pulmonary drugs they could get on the TS platform, so having a stake can offset any investment they need to make to get those TS licenses for a group of opportunities. I believe MNKD has about 11M shares to work with now, which is about 5% of the company. UTHR could buy on the open market up to 5%. How fast do they have to report? 14 days? They could acquire much more than 5% on the open market before it becomes public, maybe 10%?. If this happened the price would jump. Mnkd could sell some shares to bring in cash or sell some more to UTHR. Whatever happens, MNKD will be requesting more shares at the next shareholder meeting. My hunch is they need some big developments like the above to have the votes to do it.
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Post by golfeveryday on Jan 11, 2020 11:37:32 GMT -5
A friend of mine and I were discussing the recent volume and I asked him what he thought was driving the volume. “The script counts”, he quipped. We both chuckled. But he followed it with, “I have no idea, maybe the warrants expiring?” Either way it’s welcome, but I am curious what the board thinks is driving the volume. Below is a short list of possible driving factors (in no particular order of liklihood or importance). * Brazil getting underway * Retention improving (thank you VDEX, even if your Rx counts are paltry) * Warrants expiring * Recent study publications * Impending pediatric approval * Someone is exiting their short position * Someone is pumping with the intention of dumping (aka fake volatility) * Someone is acquiring I have little basis for a hunch it is the last one, but it just feels right. I suspect it’s UTHR. If they are, they have to announce it once they own more than 5%. Complete speculation though. Whatever is going on, I’m liking 2020 so far! the first 3 on your list could definitely be doing it. The last one related to UTHR is something I have been thinking about and possibly expecting for a while. There are several pulmonary drugs they could get on the TS platform, so having a stake can offset any investment they need to make to get those TS licenses for a group of opportunities. I believe MNKD has about 11M shares to work with now, which is about 5% of the company. UTHR could buy on the open market up to 5%. How fast do they have to report? 14 days? They could acquire much more than 5% on the open market before it becomes public, maybe 10%?. If this happened the price would jump. Mnkd could sell some shares to bring in cash or sell some more to UTHR. Whatever happens, MNKD will be requesting more shares at the next shareholder meeting. My hunch is they need some big developments like the above to have the votes to do it. to answer my own question: The Section 13(d) reporting requirement is satisfied by filing Schedule 13D with the SEC. Schedule 13D must be filed within 10 days of crossing the 5% ownership threshold.
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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 13, 2020 12:06:41 GMT -5
So much for the recent argument that shorting and the warrants would keep this stock below $1.60 for another year.
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Post by cjm18 on Jan 13, 2020 12:14:42 GMT -5
So much for the recent argument that shorting and the warrants would keep this stock below $1.60 for another year. Smart money will short soon before the warrants are exercised. Then back down to 1.60 we go. Not today though.
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Post by awesomo on Jan 13, 2020 12:15:33 GMT -5
So much for the recent argument that shorting and the warrants would keep this stock below $1.60 for another year. We clearly passed $1.60 last year, even the warrants at $2.60 were in play at some point. But that’s the thing with warrants, they can short freely above the exercise price because they are guaranteed protection. And look where we ended up around the exercise date. Crossing the threshold now is great, but doesn’t prove anything.
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Jan 13, 2020 13:09:11 GMT -5
Oppenheimer gave MNKD an "Outperform" rating on 12/23/19. Maybe a second molecule is pending, the stock is then run up similar to Oct 2017 ($6.85 ish) and an offering is made. Just a thought.....
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 13, 2020 15:10:47 GMT -5
I forget. What is it, like 5mm warrants outstanding? Is that enough to ward off longs if the volume remains above 4mm per day?
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 13, 2020 15:12:36 GMT -5
The range is between $1.10 and $1.70 for the warrants. When it ran up to $6+ that was on the label change ..if we got another molecule it would depend on what the upfront payment was.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 13, 2020 16:08:52 GMT -5
I forget. What is it, like 5mm warrants outstanding? Is that enough to ward off longs if the volume remains above 4mm per day? So they essentially got $5.85M from selling 4.5M shares, extended 7M at $1.60 until June 2020, and took back 12M.
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Post by letitride on Jan 13, 2020 21:08:31 GMT -5
Ive been trying to keep this on the down low but I gotta let you know I been buying shares. But not today that was someone else. Lets Go!
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Post by kuka on Jan 13, 2020 21:19:24 GMT -5
its due to the impending buy out or buy in from AMGEN.
I have been saying this since March 2017.
Do a little research about Tony Hooper and what he currently does for AMGEN.
His name has been scrubbed in the last week but he is the Exec VP:Commercial Operations, Amgen Ventures.
Google Hooper and BeiGene .....
its been a "Complcated Deal" but it is going to happen.
Get ready for an "Embarrassment of Riches in 2020"
It gonna Happen folks ....cant deny im right for much longer.
Peace out .....
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Post by nylefty on Jan 13, 2020 21:50:57 GMT -5
Yeah, it's always a good sign when your name is "scrubbed" by the company you worked for.
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