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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 21, 2020 13:12:56 GMT -5
(let's stay on topic this time) Is this the effects of the expiration on Friday and pent up demand caused by MLK Day? It may be that fantastic news is coming out tonight. Or it may be MNKD is caught in the market melt-up. Even though most of the indices are down today, a lot of stocks are (somewhat inexplicably, IMO) still hitting 52 week highs. Crazy. I sold my MNKD shares some weeks ago, but this is still fun to watch. FWIW, I sold a bunch of my other stocks today. I'm getting nervous. Overall, I'm still pretty long in the market, though. |
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Post by alethea on Jan 21, 2020 13:42:54 GMT -5
(let's stay on topic this time) Is this the effects of the expiration on Friday and pent up demand caused by MLK Day? Jan 17, 2020 Calls representing about 4,200,000 shares expired Friday. There remain ONLY Calls for about 3,100,000 shares in total. That's all the way thru Jan 15, 2021. And most of those calls are at prices well above today's price. That CVI outfit that maybe exercised warrants at $1.31 by the December 26 deadline (thanks for telling us Mike whether or not it happened) still holds warrants for 7.5 million shares if I recall correctly. So by my reckoning there are only calls and warrants for about 10 to 11 million shares VERSUS the 40 million shares short.I think the Jan 17 Calls expiration is indeed a big factor in the upward pressure to the stock price. May it continue please. The 4th quarter conference call must take place by March 15. I would think we will get some serious insight at that time if not before. |
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Post by falconquest on Jan 21, 2020 19:53:26 GMT -5
I will hold my comments on this topic until the share dilution.......er, I mean the annual shareholder mtg.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 21, 2020 20:18:16 GMT -5
I doubt it's the historical "January Effect" but it could be related to December tax-loss selling of MNKD and the 30-day wash rule. Investors who sold for tax purposes in mid- to late-December are now free to buy back in. The volume seems to be too low to indicate pending news although MNKD has been mentioned in a couple Hot 2020 Biotech Stocks articles. It could be new blood.  |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 21, 2020 20:30:45 GMT -5
Also.....New interest, the stock twits watchers are going up daily! 35,107
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Post by georgethenight2 on Jan 21, 2020 20:40:04 GMT -5
I will hold my comments on this topic until the share dilution.......er, I mean the annual shareholder mtg. If news breaks regarding a second molecule, above average demand in Brazil for Afrezza, RLS, buy-in, etc, the share dilution you speak of could be negligible. I would hope that Mike and the board are not that out of touch with longs. As Mike is on record as stating; we have enough funds until the end of this year. Thus a raise at these prices is attune to shooting yourself in the foot. But, as is the case with MC and the entire drama that surrounds MNKD, I ask this: "How many licks does it take to get to the tootsie roll center of a tootsie pop?, The world may never know." |
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Post by letitride on Jan 21, 2020 21:00:49 GMT -5
Ok I see the speculation but to be honest I bought more today.
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Post by ktim on Jan 21, 2020 21:02:58 GMT -5
I will hold my comments on this topic until the share dilution.......er, I mean the annual shareholder mtg. If news breaks regarding a second molecule, above average demand in Brazil for Afrezza, RLS, buy-in, etc, the share dilution you speak of could be negligible. I would hope that Mike and the board are not that out of touch with longs. As Mike is on record as stating; we have enough funds until the end of this year. Thus a raise at these prices is attune to shooting yourself in the foot. But, as is the case with MC and the entire drama that surrounds MNKD, I ask this: "How many licks does it take to get to the tootsie roll center of a tootsie pop?, The world may never know." Management, the board and even many shareholders were out of touch last time with what doubling the authorized shares would do. I'll hope that your hope that management has wised up this time is fulfilled. By the way... what will "above average" be for Brazil? I'm assuming that you believe "average" would be large enough that it materially moves the needle on overall revenue. Though believing Mike when he implies there is funding to last to the end of 2020, you don't believe him when he has said that Brazil will not be meaningful to overall revenue for Afrezza? |
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Post by pat on Jan 21, 2020 21:07:35 GMT -5
If news breaks regarding a second molecule, above average demand in Brazil for Afrezza, RLS, buy-in, etc, the share dilution you speak of could be negligible. I would hope that Mike and the board are not that out of touch with longs. As Mike is on record as stating; we have enough funds until the end of this year. Thus a raise at these prices is attune to shooting yourself in the foot. But, as is the case with MC and the entire drama that surrounds MNKD, I ask this: "How many licks does it take to get to the tootsie roll center of a tootsie pop?, The world may never know." Management, the board and even many shareholders were out of touch last time with what doubling the authorized shares would do. I'll hope that your hope that management has wised up this time is fulfilled. By the way... what will "above average" be for Brazil? I'm assuming that you believe "average" would be large enough that it materially moves the needle on overall revenue. Though believing Mike when he implies there is funding to last to the end of 2020, you don't believe him when he has said that Brazil will not be meaningful to overall revenue for Afrezza? Yawn |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 21, 2020 21:58:04 GMT -5
Starting to think the appointment of Hooper to the board is a meaningful event, even if just a confirmation of the company's potential. Hooper was a major player at Amgen and at BMY before that. He was the second highest compensated executive at Amgen for multiple years, second only to the CEO. Needless to say, the guy will be careful with his reputation and his legacy. See here: www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318154/000119312519100704/d629495ddef14a.htm (page 67) His willingness to be on the board is a signal of some sort that might be meaningful to larger institutional investors looking for some industry affirmation. It could be this plus Brazil sales plus what Nate referenced regarding LEAP expiration. Also from the above referenced proxy: Anthony Hooper retired from the role of Executive Vice President, Global Commercial Operations on September 3, 2018, after serving in this role since 2011. Murdo Gordon joined us as our Executive Vice President, Global Commercial Operations, effective September 3, 2018, from Bristol-Myers Squibb Company where he served as Chief Commercial Officer since 2016 and, prior to that, head of worldwide markets. Mr. Hooper continues to be employed in a non-executive officer capacity to assist in the transition, as well as to lead and execute on several corporate strategic objectives.
Market cap of Beigene is 13 B. On Jan 2 Beigene announced a deal with Amgen. And the same day they announced Hooper on their board. In a previous thread (Nate on Twitter, Jan 17), Jlaw posted, "Looks like the appointment of Hooper to the BeiGene board was an agreed upon part of the Amgen deal, which means he serves more or less as a representative of Amgen's interests even though he is an independent director. Maybe his retirement made him more useful in this way, as he could be deployed as "independent." See the 8-k from 10.31.19: "As part of the Share Purchase Agreement, Amgen will receive the right to designate an independent director to serve on BeiGene’s board of directors." Item 1.01end of 2nd paragraph: 10.31.19 AMGN 8-k Remains interesting that he is one of our board members." Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/search/results?captcha_id=captcha_search&what_at_least_one=beigene&who_only_made_by=0&display_as=0&search=Search#ixzz6Bgn2GmGBI have it on good authority (i.e., mnholdem, sportsrancho, and agedhippie) that it is silly to suppose that although Anthony Hooper was instrumental in Amgen’s strategic investment in Beigene that he could have any similar reason for joining the MNKD board of directors. It is either coincidence or Dr. Castagna padding the board with a former buddy from Amgen. (The depth of that last assumption is amusing to me.) Beyond indulging in a little mocking for being mocked, I did find the argument that shorts need a way to hedge against open-ended loss and the reducing availability of warrants and LEAP options may account for some short positions being closed. I would guess a tell for that would be if the daily SIR reduces meaningfully. The last 6 trading days have all been over 55% (and two were over 60%) so either the short interest would have been significantly higher than 55% or the volume is coming from some other place. This kind of mystery rise tends to drive me a little nuts. I much prefer identifiable and believable reasons for valuation. The lack of obvious and significant improvement in fundamentals (increased revenue or decreased expenses) just leaves this with the same feel as the $2+ and the $6+ rallies. (I admiire the investors who have successfully traded around a core on MNKD.) |
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Post by bababooey on Jan 21, 2020 22:05:49 GMT -5
Great, last time oppenheimer gave a price target (i believe it was $6), they were the institution that did the secondary. Don't tell me this is another pump prior to authorization of shares and subsequent dilution. |
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Post by longliner on Jan 21, 2020 22:14:44 GMT -5
Market cap of Beigene is 13 B. On Jan 2 Beigene announced a deal with Amgen. And the same day they announced Hooper on their board. In a previous thread (Nate on Twitter, Jan 17), Jlaw posted, "Looks like the appointment of Hooper to the BeiGene board was an agreed upon part of the Amgen deal, which means he serves more or less as a representative of Amgen's interests even though he is an independent director. Maybe his retirement made him more useful in this way, as he could be deployed as "independent." See the 8-k from 10.31.19: "As part of the Share Purchase Agreement, Amgen will receive the right to designate an independent director to serve on BeiGene’s board of directors." Item 1.01end of 2nd paragraph: 10.31.19 AMGN 8-k Remains interesting that he is one of our board members." Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/search/results?captcha_id=captcha_search&what_at_least_one=beigene&who_only_made_by=0&display_as=0&search=Search#ixzz6Bgn2GmGBI have it on good authority (i.e., mnholdem, sportsrancho, and agedhippie) that it is silly to suppose that although Anthony Hooper was instrumental in Amgen’s strategic investment in Beigene that he could have any similar reason for joining the MNKD board of directors. It is either coincidence or Dr. Castagna padding the board with a former buddy from Amgen. (The depth of that last assumption is amusing to me.) Beyond indulging in a little mocking for being mocked, I did find the argument that shorts need a way to hedge against open-ended loss and the reducing availability of warrants and LEAP options may account for some short positions being closed. I would guess a tell for that would be if the daily SIR reduces meaningfully. The last 6 trading days have all been over 55% (and two were over 60%) so either the short interest would have been significantly higher than 55% or the volume is coming from some other place. This kind of mystery rise tends to drive me a little nuts. I much prefer identifiable and believable reasons for valuation. The lack of obvious and significant improvement in fundamentals (increased revenue or decreased expenses) just leaves this with the same feel as the $2+ and the $6+ rallies. (I admiire the investors who have successfully traded around a core on MNKD.) Don't even hope!!! HFM is your only saviour   !! I'm still a Lilly guy, they pick up MNKD, RLS and UTHR. Aged of course gives no credence to either Lilly or AMGEN........or anything else that might benefit MNKD shareholders. I kinda wish I was paid to ride the sidelines, I've been here long enough to become wealthy! I am with you in that we need some "beef" with this burger. |
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Post by letitride on Jan 21, 2020 22:16:56 GMT -5
Could be but will it get us through 20 before we see 10 again?
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 21, 2020 22:20:50 GMT -5
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Post by falconquest on Jan 21, 2020 22:31:46 GMT -5
Great, last time oppenheimer gave a price target (i believe it was $6), they were the institution that did the secondary. Don't tell me this is another pump prior to authorization of shares and subsequent dilution. Nope, not saying that at all (looks up and starts whistling) not at all, not here! |
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!! I'm still a Lilly guy, they pick up MNKD, RLS and UTHR. Aged of course gives no credence to either Lilly or AMGEN........or anything else that might benefit MNKD shareholders. I kinda wish I was paid to ride the sidelines, I've been here long enough to become wealthy! I am with you in that we need some "beef" with this burger.