Post by morfu on Feb 2, 2020 8:50:18 GMT -5
July 31, 2020 Thresholds (there are many other dates, but I chose this one to look at)
Min Afrezza 52-week Net Revenue to stay compliant: $29,011,333
Min Afrezza 52-week Net Revenue to access third trance financing: $36,000,000
Remaining weeks until July 31, 2020: 27 (which means the most recent 25 weeks will be used in the 52 week calculation)
Previous 25 weeks retail sales: $31,628,000 based on Symphony script reports
If we assume approx 42% of retail sales result in net revenue to MNKD, the previous 25 weeks have brought in roughly $13,300,000
Adding $700,000 net revenue from Brazil = $14 million accrued towards covenants
Net revenue needed over next 27 weeks to maintain covenant: $15,000000
Net revenue needed over next 27 weeks to achieve third tranche: $22,000,000
$15 million divided by 27 weeks = $555,555 net revenue per week (roughly $1.33 million per week of retail sales required to stay compliant)
$22 million divided by 27 weeks = $814,815 net revenue per week (approximately $1.95 million per week of retail sales required to qualify for third tranche).
The third tranche threshold stays at $36 million until the end of September, so it is possible (I assume) that they could miss the July 31 threshold, but qualify for the third tranche in August or September, which would lower the weekly sales required. (And lower sales numbers would fall off as the 52 week range moves to the right and the numbers on the left are no longer counted)
Anything from Brazil would mitigate the need for all of these numbers to come from Symphony script numbers. But we have very little to go on in Brazil so far.
Thoughts?
The retail sales might be higher:
I18 II18 III18 IV18 I19 II19 III19
Total revenues 3.4 3.8 4.4 16.0 17.5 15.0 14.6
of which
Afrezza net 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 5.0 6.1 6.4
collaboration 10.3 12.4 8.9 8.2
liane´s table 6.5 8.4 10 11.5 12.2 13.2 13.3
Anet over table .52 .45 .44 .50 .45 .46 .48
Total revenues 3.4 3.8 4.4 16.0 17.5 15.0 14.6
of which
Afrezza net 3.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 5.0 6.1 6.4
collaboration 10.3 12.4 8.9 8.2
liane´s table 6.5 8.4 10 11.5 12.2 13.2 13.3
Anet over table .52 .45 .44 .50 .45 .46 .48
I awlawys wondered how big the constant costs are. They should dominate the costs and the relative retail sale should go up with the revenue.