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Post by longliner on Jan 24, 2020 5:53:32 GMT -5
Afrezza revenue increased by 72% (retail) from the same week last year (2020 vs 2019). (Courtesy of realalby on ST). Without the "January slump" 2020 may be interesting. The revenue trajectory will have to be acknowledged by Wall Street at some inflection point. Once it becomes clearly established, and acknowledged........it's up and to the right.  |
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Post by peppy on Jan 24, 2020 11:37:32 GMT -5
Afrezza revenue increased by 72% (retail) from the same week last year (2020 vs 2019). (Courtesy of realalby on ST). Without the "January slump" 2020 may be interesting. The revenue trajectory will have to be acknowledged by Wall Street at some inflection point. Once it becomes clearly established, and acknowledged........it's up and to the right. 12/20/2019 scripts hit 932. Nrx 413 Rrx 519 first target 1000. second target 2000. we need 2500 a week. This year would work for me. It is an insurance game now. It always has been. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 24, 2020 13:39:47 GMT -5
That 932 included holiday sales ... so it'll be a tough nut to crack. But, with social media picking up ... it could happen. So, the race is on ... 1,000 scripts or 1,000 containers !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by ktim on Jan 24, 2020 15:33:37 GMT -5
Afrezza revenue increased by 72% (retail) from the same week last year (2020 vs 2019). (Courtesy of realalby on ST). Without the "January slump" 2020 may be interesting. The revenue trajectory will have to be acknowledged by Wall Street at some inflection point. Once it becomes clearly established, and acknowledged........it's up and to the right. Would absolutely agree. If we have inflection point to something faster than linear growth that should also change share price trajectory. Q4 was likely strong, but even when I plug in a fairly optimistic number excel curve fitting doesn't yet indicate we've broken our linear trend. A strong Q1 might be enough to make the emotionally blind data say a change is afoot. |
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Post by wsulylecoug on Jan 24, 2020 17:10:44 GMT -5
Do we get a 2020 sales estimate from management this year and if so would that be helpful in grabbing WS attention? Estimates for 2019 weren’t provided after the 2018 miss, correct?
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Post by figglebird on Jan 24, 2020 19:02:44 GMT -5
Wall street has estimated - just look at est revenue and leave at that(minus assumed bench Mark's etc) - the advantage to a prolonged slump early last year is the expectation of repeating - I believe analysts peg around 40pct growth - anything around that - let it be.
Especially w a quicker start that now has some wiggle room.
Let's not over think other people's jobs.
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Post by ktim on Jan 24, 2020 19:17:18 GMT -5
Do we get a 2020 sales estimate from management this year and if so would that be helpful in grabbing WS attention? Estimates for 2019 weren’t provided after the 2018 miss, correct? They have given guidance. It's $34,464k to $40,000k  |
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 24, 2020 20:00:15 GMT -5
Do we get a 2020 sales estimate from management this year and if so would that be helpful in grabbing WS attention? Estimates for 2019 weren’t provided after the 2018 miss, correct? They have given guidance. It's $34,464k to $40,000k I take it your serious? $34,464? Looks like we’ll clobber that. But where was this said? |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 24, 2020 20:08:24 GMT -5
The k on the end makes it $34M to $40M.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by ktim on Jan 24, 2020 22:12:24 GMT -5
They have given guidance. It's $34,464k to $40,000k I take it your serious? $34,464? Looks like we’ll clobber that. But where was this said? The upper end is the old covenant value for Midcap, which one would presume MNKD did not feel they could meet because it was adjusted down. Lower number is the new Midcap covenant, which hopefully was set comfortably below what management thinks they can achieve. It's wide range but I think that would reasonably represent the bounds of a guidance range. I think many will be using it as defacto guidance if nothing else comes from MNKD. I think they can easily beat the lower range, so Mike could be bold and give tighter guidance. And, yes, those first two digits are millions. 2021 is when the covenants.start looking challenging again, though MNKD will have been able to tap tranche 2 in 2020. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 24, 2020 22:22:22 GMT -5
I believe Mike C said that he won't be giving any guidance anymore ... or, the board advised him not to. Can't remember which way it was. Makes sense to me.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by mango on Jan 25, 2020 0:29:37 GMT -5
I believe Mike C said that he won't be giving any guidance anymore ... or, the board advised him not to. Can't remember which way it was. Makes sense to me. But, that's mytakeonit the hand I count thank you— black jack |
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Post by bones1026 on Jan 25, 2020 0:31:21 GMT -5
I take it your serious? $34,464? Looks like we’ll clobber that. But where was this said? The upper end is the old covenant value for Midcap, which one would presume MNKD did not feel they could meet because it was adjusted down. Lower number is the new Midcap covenant, which hopefully was set comfortably below what management thinks they can achieve. It's wide range but I think that would reasonably represent the bounds of a guidance range. I think many will be using it as defacto guidance if nothing else comes from MNKD. I think they can easily eat the lower range, so Mike could be bold and give tighter guidance. And, yes, those first two digits are millions. 2021 is when the covenants.start looking challenging again, though MNKD will have been able to tap tranche 2 in 2020. Your knowledge and dedication to this company is quite impressive. |
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Post by neil36 on Feb 1, 2020 22:55:42 GMT -5
My Loan Covenant Estimate as of January 24, 2020 scripts. This is just back-o-napkin stuff, so edits and other conclusions are welcome.
July 31, 2020 Thresholds (there are many other dates, but I chose this one to look at)
Min Afrezza 52-week Net Revenue to stay compliant: $29,011,333
Min Afrezza 52-week Net Revenue to access third trance financing: $36,000,000
Remaining weeks until July 31, 2020: 27 (which means the most recent 25 weeks will be used in the 52 week calculation)
Previous 25 weeks retail sales: $31,628,000 based on Symphony script reports
If we assume approx 42% of retail sales result in net revenue to MNKD, the previous 25 weeks have brought in roughly $13,300,000
Adding $700,000 net revenue from Brazil = $14 million accrued towards covenants
Net revenue needed over next 27 weeks to maintain covenant: $15,000000
Net revenue needed over next 27 weeks to achieve third tranche: $22,000,000
$15 million divided by 27 weeks = $555,555 net revenue per week (roughly $1.33 million per week of retail sales required to stay compliant)
$22 million divided by 27 weeks = $814,815 net revenue per week (approximately $1.95 million per week of retail sales required to qualify for third tranche).
The third tranche threshold stays at $36 million until the end of September, so it is possible (I assume) that they could miss the July 31 threshold, but qualify for the third tranche in August or September, which would lower the weekly sales required. (And lower sales numbers would fall off as the 52 week range moves to the right and the numbers on the left are no longer counted)
Anything from Brazil would mitigate the need for all of these numbers to come from Symphony script numbers. But we have very little to go on in Brazil so far.
Thoughts?
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 2, 2020 8:13:12 GMT -5
Nice work, neil36. |
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