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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2020 12:56:53 GMT -5
Looks like we've been set up now to have a large string of revenue beats. We just have to execute and every quarterly report becomes sort of a catalyst. I'm alright with it, I guess. It depends.....Mike said some of Qtr 2 Afrezza sales were pulled into the 1st Qtr and Sales could be FLAT. Brazil has basically come to a stop. Mike said they lowered the price of their shipment. So we shall see. Hopefully things will get back to normal in the 3rd & 4th Qtr. |
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Post by awesomo on May 11, 2020 13:35:29 GMT -5
Earnings per share uses net income, not revenue. You have to factor in the expenses. I know but TreT Revenue is ROYALTIES so depending on how they do the accounting it could fall straight to the bottom line. Then you're assuming MannKind is net income even or better excluding TreT royalties, along with the assumption of $1B+ revenue from UTHR and that we are still at 400M shares in four years. |
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Post by mnholdem on May 11, 2020 15:20:50 GMT -5
Stock analysts at SVB Leerink lowered their FY2023 EPS estimates for shares of MannKind in a report issued on Thursday, May 7th. SVB Leerink analyst T. Smith now expects that the biopharmaceutical company will post earnings of $0.04 per share for the year, down from their prior estimate of $0.11. SVB Leerink also issued estimates for MannKind’s FY2024 earnings at $0.13 EPS. 2024 estimates seem very low. Let's say TreT alone brings in $100M in Revs and O/S is 400M that's $ .25 eps. Am I missing something?? I think so. If Tyvaso(TS) brings in $100M and MannKind gets paid a 10%-12% royalty, then your numerator would be ($10M-$12M)/400M OS shares. That would result in $.025-$.03 per share. Right? |
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2020 8:07:07 GMT -5
2024 estimates seem very low. Let's say TreT alone brings in $100M in Revs and O/S is 400M that's $ .25 eps. Am I missing something?? I think so. If Tyvaso(TS) brings in $100M and MannKind gets paid a 10%-12% royalty, then your numerator would be ($10M-$12M)/400M OS shares. That would result in $.025-$.03 per share. Right? My assumption: TreT Revenues in 4 years could be $1 Billion (assuming TreT indication expands to include WHO 3 (PAH-ILD)) therefore MNKD could get $100M in Revenues. Also assuming that falls to the bottom line and MNKD's O/S is 400M (I doubt it but I'm being conservative) then EPS will be $.25 I was responding to this statement.....[SVB Leerink also issued estimates for MannKind’s FY2024 earnings at $0.13 EPS]. |
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Post by radgray68 on May 12, 2020 11:20:20 GMT -5
Simply switching patients to Tre-T at current sales would give us about .10 per share in revenue at a fully diluted 400 million shares. Sure, they believe it's going to become a Billion but let's just stay with that 10 cents a share in revenue. Based on the .04 cents of EPS expected by 2024, I think we're going to blow estimates out of the water.
My point is, Wall Street is giving us 4 years to do what we could do (4 cents in EPS) in 2021. Any projections for Afrezza in 4 years? I'm pretty sure it's over .04 a share. JMHO
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Post by awesomo on May 12, 2020 12:10:51 GMT -5
Simply switching? It’s not going to be that simple, and unlikely 100% will go the inhaler route, definitely not right off that bat.
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Post by agedhippie on May 12, 2020 12:56:38 GMT -5
I think so. If Tyvaso(TS) brings in $100M and MannKind gets paid a 10%-12% royalty, then your numerator would be ($10M-$12M)/400M OS shares. That would result in $.025-$.03 per share. Right? My assumption: TreT Revenues in 4 years could be $1 Billion (assuming TreT indication expands to include WHO 3 (PAH-ILD)) therefore MNKD could get $100M in Revenues. Also assuming that falls to the bottom line and MNKD's O/S is 400M (I doubt it but I'm being conservative) then EPS will be $.25 I was responding to this statement.....[SVB Leerink also issued estimates for MannKind’s FY2024 earnings at $0.13 EPS]. There are 30,000 people with PAH-ILD in the use. I don't know if you can charge $30k per patient annually (elsewhere I would say no, but in the US...?) It's not unreasonable to expect Liquidia to jump into the PAH-ILD market if UTHR blaze the trail which would constrain price and sales. |
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Post by radgray68 on May 12, 2020 13:14:56 GMT -5
Simply switching? It’s not going to be that simple, and unlikely 100% will go the inhaler route, definitely not right off that bat. I disagree. Enthusiasm is very high for the product on both sides. Patient retention from the trials will be a good preliminary indication. Let's say I'm only half right. They only get half the current market share and none of the WHO expanded market in the next 4 years. That's still blowing away the 2024 estimates of .04 EPS when you add Afrezza sales. Now, what if there are more than 50% converting in 4 years AND the market triples like some theorize. Talk about catalysts. Certainly worth risking $1.30 today IMHO |
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Post by awesomo on May 12, 2020 13:30:21 GMT -5
Simply switching? It’s not going to be that simple, and unlikely 100% will go the inhaler route, definitely not right off that bat. I disagree. Enthusiasm is very high for the product on both sides. Patient retention from the trials will be a good preliminary indication. Let's say I'm only half right. They only get half the current market share and none of the WHO expanded market in the next 4 years. That's still blowing away the 2024 estimates of .04 EPS when you add Afrezza sales. Now, what if there are more than 50% converting in 4 years AND the market triples like some theorize. Talk about catalysts. Certainly worth risking $1.30 today IMHO Earnings per share is net income, not revenue. You're not factoring in costs of running the company, operational, marketing, sales, etc. You can't just add Afrezza sales to EPS because Afrezza is losing lots of money currently (net income is very negative) and is far away from break-even on its own. |
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Post by mango on May 12, 2020 14:20:00 GMT -5
My assumption: TreT Revenues in 4 years could be $1 Billion (assuming TreT indication expands to include WHO 3 (PAH-ILD)) therefore MNKD could get $100M in Revenues. Also assuming that falls to the bottom line and MNKD's O/S is 400M (I doubt it but I'm being conservative) then EPS will be $.25 I was responding to this statement.....[SVB Leerink also issued estimates for MannKind’s FY2024 earnings at $0.13 EPS].  There are 30,000 people with PAH-ILD in the use. I don't know if you can charge $30k per patient annually (elsewhere I would say no, but in the US...?) It's not unreasonable to expect Liquidia to jump into the PAH-ILD market if UTHR blaze the trail which would constrain price and sales. It is not just the additional of PAH-ILD (United Therapeutics INCREASE Phase 3 clinical trial with Tyvaso), but it is also the addition of all the PAH-COPD patients (United Therapeutics PERFECT Phase 3 clinical trial with Tyvaso). All these patients will be transitioned over to TreT. Also, many new regular PAH cases world-wide grow annually. • New cases are estimated to occur in one to two individuals per million each year in the U.S. The incidence is estimated to be similar in Europe. Approximately 500-1000 new cases of PAH are diagnosed each year in the U.S. Liquidia will hardly make a dent in the market because we are swimming with the Whale, while they (Liquidia) are the equivalent of a seal stranded on a deserted rock in the middle of the ocean. There is a very good chance that annual TreT sales will reach $1B in the not so distant future and that will equate to at least ~$100M in royalties annually for MannKind (and that comes straight from Martine Rothblatt who would know better than anyone). |
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2020 18:00:40 GMT -5
There are 30,000 people with PAH-ILD in the use. I don't know if you can charge $30k per patient annually (elsewhere I would say no, but in the US...?) It's not unreasonable to expect Liquidia to jump into the PAH-ILD market if UTHR blaze the trail which would constrain price and sales. It is not just the additional of PAH-ILD (United Therapeutics INCREASE Phase 3 clinical trial with Tyvaso), but it is also the addition of all the PAH-COPD patients (United Therapeutics PERFECT Phase 3 clinical trial with Tyvaso). All these patients will be transitioned over to TreT. Also, many new regular PAH cases world-wide grow annually. • New cases are estimated to occur in one to two individuals per million each year in the U.S. The incidence is estimated to be similar in Europe. Approximately 500-1000 new cases of PAH are diagnosed each year in the U.S. Liquidia will hardly make a dent in the market because we are swimming with the Whale, while they (Liquidia) are the equivalent of a seal stranded on a deserted rock in the middle of the ocean. There is a very good chance that annual TreT sales will reach $1B in the not so distant future and that will equate to at least ~$100M in royalties annually for MannKind (and that comes straight from Martine Rothblatt who would know better than anyone). Also add in the amended agreement making MNKD the CMO of TreT. I'm sure MNKD will make a nice margin on the manufacturing as they scale up and I'm sure UTHR will procure the equipment. MNKD's future us getting brighter by the day. |
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Post by agedhippie on May 12, 2020 22:07:15 GMT -5
There are 30,000 people with PAH-ILD in the use. I don't know if you can charge $30k per patient annually (elsewhere I would say no, but in the US...?) It's not unreasonable to expect Liquidia to jump into the PAH-ILD market if UTHR blaze the trail which would constrain price and sales. It is not just the additional of PAH-ILD (United Therapeutics INCREASE Phase 3 clinical trial with Tyvaso), but it is also the addition of all the PAH-COPD patients (United Therapeutics PERFECT Phase 3 clinical trial with Tyvaso). All these patients will be transitioned over to TreT. Also, many new regular PAH cases world-wide grow annually. • New cases are estimated to occur in one to two individuals per million each year in the U.S. The incidence is estimated to be similar in Europe. Approximately 500-1000 new cases of PAH are diagnosed each year in the U.S. Liquidia will hardly make a dent in the market because we are swimming with the Whale, while they (Liquidia) are the equivalent of a seal stranded on a deserted rock in the middle of the ocean. There is a very good chance that annual TreT sales will reach $1B in the not so distant future and that will equate to at least ~$100M in royalties annually for MannKind (and that comes straight from Martine Rothblatt who would know better than anyone). Tyvaso is not approved in the EU as UTHR withdrew it from the approval process back in 2010. Internationally Tyvaso is only sold in Argentina and Israel. I am curious how UTHR would get to $1Bn net revenue from the $415M it has today with Tyvaso. |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2020 0:42:06 GMT -5
It is not just the additional of PAH-ILD (United Therapeutics INCREASE Phase 3 clinical trial with Tyvaso), but it is also the addition of all the PAH-COPD patients (United Therapeutics PERFECT Phase 3 clinical trial with Tyvaso). All these patients will be transitioned over to TreT. Also, many new regular PAH cases world-wide grow annually. • New cases are estimated to occur in one to two individuals per million each year in the U.S. The incidence is estimated to be similar in Europe. Approximately 500-1000 new cases of PAH are diagnosed each year in the U.S. Liquidia will hardly make a dent in the market because we are swimming with the Whale, while they (Liquidia) are the equivalent of a seal stranded on a deserted rock in the middle of the ocean. There is a very good chance that annual TreT sales will reach $1B in the not so distant future and that will equate to at least ~$100M in royalties annually for MannKind (and that comes straight from Martine Rothblatt who would know better than anyone). Tyvaso is not approved in the EU as UTHR withdrew it from the approval process back in 2010. Internationally Tyvaso is only sold in Argentina and Israel. I am curious how UTHR would get to $1Bn net revenue from the $415M it has today with Tyvaso. I can't remember the actual number of patients (maybe 5,000) currently on Tyvaso but Martine and Mike have said with the additional indications WHO 3 (PAH-ILD) it will increase the size to 10,000 - 13,000 patients. So by 2024 TreT could reach Revenues between $1B - $1.5B. Considering the current treatment of the Nebulizer compared to the Inhaler?? It's a no brainer and patients will jump at it. It will not be an Afrezza growth pattern. |
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Post by mango on May 13, 2020 2:00:21 GMT -5
Tyvaso is not approved in the EU as UTHR withdrew it from the approval process back in 2010. Internationally Tyvaso is only sold in Argentina and Israel. I am curious how UTHR would get to $1Bn net revenue from the $415M it has today with Tyvaso. I can't remember the actual number of patients (maybe 5,000) currently on Tyvaso but Martine and Mike have said with the additional indications WHO 3 (PAH-ILD) it will increase the size to 10,000 - 13,000 patients. So by 2024 TreT could reach Revenues between $1B - $1.5B. Considering the current treatment of the Nebulizer compared to the Inhaler?? It's a no brainer and patients will jump at it. It will not be an Afrezza growth pattern. PAH WHO Group 1 + PAH-ILD + PAH-COPD • Also, approximately 500-1000 new cases of PAH are diagnosed each year in the U.S. • "I am pleased to announce the successful outcome of the INCREASE phase III trial of Tyvaso in a unique kind of pulmonary hypertension, a variant that has no approved therapy," said Martine Rothblatt, Ph.D., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of United Therapeutics. " Some 30,000 Americans suffer from this disease, called WHO Group 3 Pulmonary Hypertension. It is a tremendous testament to our head of product development, Dr. Leigh Peterson, that her team used the unique characteristics of our inhaled medicine to achieve a highly statistically significant proof of efficacy while seeming to avoid the safety issues that have plagued systemic therapeutics." www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/united-therapeutics-announces-increase-study-of-tyvaso-meets-primary-and-all-secondary-endpoints-301009562.html |
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Post by agedhippie on May 13, 2020 10:17:43 GMT -5
Tyvaso is not approved in the EU as UTHR withdrew it from the approval process back in 2010. Internationally Tyvaso is only sold in Argentina and Israel. I am curious how UTHR would get to $1Bn net revenue from the $415M it has today with Tyvaso. I can't remember the actual number of patients (maybe 5,000) currently on Tyvaso but Martine and Mike have said with the additional indications WHO 3 (PAH-ILD) it will increase the size to 10,000 - 13,000 patients. So by 2024 TreT could reach Revenues between $1B - $1.5B. Considering the current treatment of the Nebulizer compared to the Inhaler?? It's a no brainer and patients will jump at it. It will not be an Afrezza growth pattern. That 5,000 number may not be far off. I found some pricing information from CMS that suggested around $125k per patient per year for Tyvaso. I think that cost is going to be a barrier to adoption for insurers to use it more widely (Medicare has only 1,490 patients on Tyvaso). There is almost no way that UTHR could get that price outside the US though which probably accounts for the very limited international sales. There are a lot of ways they could deal with that issue - if the demand is there they could simply reduce the price to make it more acceptable and try for dramatically increased sales (that would be my choice). I found this reference to the $1B target from back in 2016 in an interesting article - marketrealist.com/2016/08/united-therapeutics-expects-tyvaso-annual-sales-reach-1-billion/ |
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