Jan 2015 $10 calls

[frosr6]

Hey guys, looking for some opinions on my jan 2015 10 calls. My average is 1.10 and think there now around .37 now. I selling calls against them but now it's not even worth it. Worst part is I bought back August 10$ calls I had previously sold a day before earnings for a 21% gain thinking price was gonna go up. So time I get off work and check mnkd and the call $ dropped massively. My acct just took a 85% hit in last week thanks to mnkd, cop and bp. Pretty much lost everything. I usually watch my options hourly but job I got sent to has no cell phone policy. I sold my riskier positions because if this and thought I would be safe with these 3. WRONG. I lost more than I will make in a damn year now. Anyways here's what I'm considering, selling for what I can but when I usually throw in the towel the price sky rockets. Thought about rolling them out to 2016 but have to go into 20$ calls for even trade or cut my amount in half and maybe get into the 12's possibly 10's with selling some near term against them. I believe we are not going to return to anywhere near 10 till they start reporting sales but as you can see I could be WRONG. Damned if I do damned if I don't. Just looking for some ideas guys, any good advise? Thanks

[dreamboatcruise]

I think there is a chance that Sanofi and Mannkind may give more details that will put the deal in a better light when their next earnings roll around in a few months. Best case, if Sanofi actually makes some aggressive projections for sales of Afrezza, that could be a catalyst for movement higher. They have said that the full deal will be released then, so my assumption is the point of delaying the release is so that they can talk it up when the details become fully known. Whether it's worth waiting until then sitting on Jan 2015 $10's I don't think I'd want to place all my MNKD bet on over $20 by Jan 2016.

[frosr6]

Thanks for your thoughts. Yes I agree 20 for 2016 is a stretch and that I will not do. Actually 12 would probably the highest I would consider getting. Holding my 2015 10's now will just keep depreciating if no news gets released in the near future. So that's the big ? I would hope MNKD would give an S/H update especially with all the unknowns of the partnership that would give us a boost. I just don't know.

[fedakd]

I hold approximately 40 of the Jan '15 calls at $10. I will not be selling. What is going on here will not continue. RSI is at 25. There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY this is worth less than PRE-ADCOM, PDUFA with all that risk removed. They killed implied volatility on these to make their money. I will be holding. Let me know what you end up doing.

[4allthemarbles]

Guys- I am watching this one as well...

[4Balance]

Ditto...sure surprised the heck out of me. I haven't seen my portfolio this low since the recession. And I've really lost confidence in my ability to anticipate price movement.

Looking for any reasonable insights into price movement over the next week, month, and quarter.

[liane]

For today, we breached the 200 day, but closed above. I believe that was the target. Also factor in op-ex and margin calls. I think from here, we can begin a slow climb up. Partnership was expected, so the game was to sell. I'm looking for unexpected news to pop up the price again. Ultimately, it will be earnings - a year away that will give us sustained price appreciation. I'm willing to wait.

[mannmade]

Unexpected news could be any of the following:

1.) Clarity on the terms of the deal that make it more clear for investors that it is positive

2.) Announcement that Afrezza is officially picked up on insurance formularies

3.) Formal Backing in PR by ADA

4.) A tecnosphere licensing deal

5.) 3rd Q earnings call should show a substantial profit with bulk of R&D expenses transferred to Sanofi and Mnkd's receipt of $150m upfront payment

6.) Filing in EU/Japan

7.) That elusive 3rd world country once mentioned as interested in purchasing substantial amt of Afrezza once approved

Any others?

Ah yes... an SEC investigation into the naked shorting practices etc used on Mnkd stk.

[gamblerjag]

I don't know if you can say partnership was expected.. it seems that buyout vs partnership was about 65/35...  Hell ,,,  I couldn't resist!!! 

[jpg]

I think those who truly believed there would be a buyout weren't paying attention to management's comments.

I am not a day trader and don't really care that much about these price fluctuations except when they get to extremes (highs to sell and lows to buy). The big picture I do care about. These day to day/ week to week and even month to month swings not so much especially when the big picture is doing great. I like this deal and am almost nervous about saying I think we did very well. I have regularly been buying shares for the last 7 years or so and have only sold some once (after the second CRL I sold 30% of my shares).

From my point of view some of the comments I have read on 'other boards' seem hard to reconcile with the realities of baby biotech investing... For all the nastiness being directed at Mannkind management I see investors who maybe took on more risk then they should have. Mr. Mann and Mannkind have beaten the odds big time and as I have often pointed out biotech is risky and complex. One of the reasons I don't care that much about the price drop is that I avoid the stress and risks of leverage and have never bought any synthetic instruments. I have often wondered if the time exposures of these synthetic instruments isn't, along with the use of leverage, one of the grestest dangers to the wealth of retail investors like us?

I obviously don't know what the price of MNKD will do next week, month or even next year but am confident that 'medium term' (2-3 years) we will do very well.

My biggest criticism of our investing system is the asymmetrical advantage short sellers have and the non regulation/ sanctioning of naked short selling. I try to take advantage of these anomalies as often as I can though. One such opportunity (as Mannmade so well demonstrated for us) is starting to show up. I haven't bought any more yet but with a bit of luck (from my perspective anyway: sorry...) we will get a better deal soon...


JPG

[frosr6]

Aug 15, 2014 9:58:56 GMT -5 fedakd said:

I hold approximately 40 of the Jan '15 calls at $10. I will not be selling. What is going on here will not continue. RSI is at 25. There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY this is worth less than PRE-ADCOM, PDUFA with all that risk removed. They killed implied volatility on these to make their money. I will be holding. Let me know what you end up doing.

Yes the IV dropped massively right after the news, nothing new but it was more than I expected that's for sure. Anyways I'm still holding for now. If they go up some I will probably roll out for jan 16 12's. Glty

[frosr6]

Sure would be nice if any of those happened! I would love to see some action taken against the naked shorts. Probably never happen but never know. Glty

Aug 15, 2014 16:23:11 GMT -5 mannmade said:

Unexpected news could be any of the following:

1.) Clarity on the terms of the deal that make it more clear for investors that it is positive

2.) Announcement that Afrezza is officially picked up on insurance formularies

3.) Formal Backing in PR by ADA

4.) A tecnosphere licensing deal

5.) 3rd Q earnings call should show a substantial profit with bulk of R&D expenses transferred to Sanofi and Mnkd's receipt of $150m upfront payment

6.) Filing in EU/Japan

7.) That elusive 3rd world country once mentioned as interested in purchasing substantial amt of Afrezza once approved

Any others?

Ah yes... an SEC investigation into the naked shorting practices etc used on Mnkd stk.