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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2020 22:04:31 GMT -5
That's a very good analysis but I don't see the $11M for the June warrants. So if nothing else comes in for the year that's $36M plus the $38.7M which gives them ~$75M which will take them into 3Q21 so I don't see the need to panic right now. If you add in the $25M from Mid Cap you get MNKD into 2022 and by then TreT Royalties and Pediatric Revenues will start. I'm also expecting an Equity Partnership that will bring in money for the Pediatric Trial and Type 2 Marketing. Also I'm expecting an amended deal with UTHR since they have decided to allow MNKD to be their CMO....that will bring in more money and revenue for MNKD. I can see why Mike is confident about MNKD's future. Casper what do you mean by Equity Partnership that will bring in money for the pediatric trial? Is there some news or rumor about this? I’ve missed it if so, but would seem to be significant. Mike mentioned it twice - on the last earnings CC and ASM call. He said they are looking for want someone to finance the Pediatric Trial and that means an Equity Partner. The will need muscle when kids are approved and to go after the Type 2. |
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2020 22:08:53 GMT -5
... I don't mind another dilution if the SP is much higher and less shares have to be used. As long as they are investing in the business and not raising cash to keep the lights on. Capital Equipment is not an issue right now since they are running 1 shift and only 3 Lines (I believe). When they start hiring more employees for a 2nd & 3rd shift and building more lines...then they can dilute to buy equipment. UTHR will fork over money to expand TreT prior to approval. MNKD has weathered the storm and the SUN is RISING!!!! Expecting more UPGRADES and NEW COVERAGE. Expect Mike to climb up the tier of investment conferences after the summer. They are done with the lower tier (but very helpful) players. It's time for MNKD to play with the Medium Players. The BIG BOYS are a ways off. When MNKD hits the 10 figure revenue mark then GS will be calling. Also keep in mind as the months progress MNKD does not have to dilute with equity. They should be able to enter the Debt Markets and raise friendlier debt. We shall see!! Lets sort through a few things here: I don't mind another dilution if the SP is much higher and less shares have to be used. As long as they are investing in the business and not raising cash to keep the lights on.That begs the question; are you not OK with them diluting to keep the lights on? I suspect the answer is actually you are, and when it happens you will say it's sad but they had no choice. Capital Equipment is not an issue right now since they are running 1 shift and only 3 Lines (I believe).I didn't think they were currently running all the lines. I thought it was a single line and the others were mothballed although one was upgraded to make TreT, but I am not sure. Does anyone have the answer to that? UTHR will fork over money to expand TreT prior to approval. Not without lowering the royalties. It would be treated as a pre-payment. MNKD has weathered the storm and the SUN is RISING!!!! [etc.]Things are nowhere near that point. The company is a micro-cap and is not going to get out of the lower end of the small-caps any time soon at best. That's not a good place to be (although better than being a micro-cap as now). Also keep in mind as the months progress MNKD does not have to dilute with equity. They should be able to enter the Debt Markets and raise friendlier debt.Lol. You realize that the next step up the funder ladder is Deerfield's tier (that's why Mannkind was originally involved with Deerfield, Mannkind were a $2BN company at the time that loan was made). Add to that MidCap has first claim on the assets to the debt would be unsecured and I think your chances of friendlier debt are zero. We shall see!!Indeed we shall  But I am curious. What are the time lines you see on this? Aged - You stick your beliefs and I'll stick to mine. |
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Post by morfu on May 23, 2020 22:16:10 GMT -5
Well.. I am following the "not one share!" idea!!! I am happy with the shares I have and see no point selling any of them right now, because I dont think this is a fair value for this stock even including the risk. However, if this company survives and becomes profitable, I see even less reason to sell any share.. I know of no other company which has this solid revenue trend and I dont see it slowing down any time soon!
No other company which has this solid revenue trend? I must be missing something here. Apparently, this is what mango wrote in the "annual-shareholders" thread today:
Annual Shareholder Meeting Notes
✅ Afrezza net revenue increasing ~7x over 3 years
✅ Afrezza TRx increasing ~3x over 3 years
Do you have a competing company in mind?
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Post by agedhippie on May 23, 2020 22:33:57 GMT -5
Aged - You stick your beliefs and I'll stick to mine. I'm cool with that. I want to make sure that people have the data to evaluate the underpinning of any point of view (including mine). I am still genuinely curious what you believe the time line for success looks like, and what would constitute success. |
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Post by longliner on May 24, 2020 1:15:09 GMT -5
Aged - You stick your beliefs and I'll stick to mine. I'm cool with that. I want to make sure that people have the data to evaluate the underpinning of any point of view (including mine). I am still genuinely curious what you believe the time line for success looks like, and what would constitute success. [bwar] I can only speak for my own investment, cash flow positive in 2021 would look like success as would a buy in / out prior to. My pick as you know, UTHR followed by a buyout by Lilly. However Amgen has potential to take a bite, and I still would not be surprised by the hated Sanofi taking Afrezza in a spinoff. |
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 7:06:04 GMT -5
Aged - You stick your beliefs and I'll stick to mine. I'm cool with that. I want to make sure that people have the data to evaluate the underpinning of any point of view (including mine). I am still genuinely curious what you believe the time line for success looks like, and what would constitute success. Success for me is seeing Sales Increasing. Seeing more patients using Afrezza each month. Seeing the Salesforce growing. Seeing the company going in the right direction. I'm a patient investor and as long as I see the company making good decisions I am fine with it. Mike stepped into a bad situation and he has turned it around and now has a strong foundation and a strong management team. MNKD is stronger now than ever. Success is in progress. |
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Post by morfu on May 24, 2020 7:14:21 GMT -5
I'm cool with that. I want to make sure that people have the data to evaluate the underpinning of any point of view (including mine). I am still genuinely curious what you believe the time line for success looks like, and what would constitute success. Success for me is seeing Sales Increasing. Seeing more patients using Afrezza each month. Seeing the Salesforce growing. Seeing the company going in the right direction. I'm a patient investor and as long as I see the company making good decisions I am fine with it. Mike stepped into a bad situation and he has turned it around and now has a strong foundation and a strong management team. MNKD is stronger now than ever. Success is in progress. He also keeps making critical mistakes! His "dillution instead of dept" policy will cost us a lot of money in the long run! Some may even say it is the sole cause for the current depressed share price! Any other company can find cheap money these days, why cant this management?
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 8:52:27 GMT -5
Success for me is seeing Sales Increasing. Seeing more patients using Afrezza each month. Seeing the Salesforce growing. Seeing the company going in the right direction. I'm a patient investor and as long as I see the company making good decisions I am fine with it. Mike stepped into a bad situation and he has turned it around and now has a strong foundation and a strong management team. MNKD is stronger now than ever. Success is in progress. He also keeps making critical mistakes! His "dillution instead of dept" policy will cost us a lot of money in the long run! Some may even say it is the sole cause for the current depressed share price! Any other company can find cheap money these days, why cant this management?
I disagree.....MNKD's financial condition was horrible when Mike took over. Mike could have taken the easy road and filed bankruptcy. And I know that was on the table. There is no such thing as CHEAP MONEY unless you're DXCM who just borrowed $1B at .25%. The credit markets are a ruthless business. When you have a shitty balance sheet there is no mercy. MNKD had to take the best deal possible and believe me the Deerfield Deal was the best deal at that time. There was not a foray of companies lining up to loan money to Mannkind. The reason for the depressed stock price is not due to dilution....It was their balance sheet and the fact that they needed to raise money. The SHORTS knew this and made things especially hard for MNKD. They are SHARKS and they smelled blood around MNKD. That's the reason for the depressed stock price. The SHORTS wanted bankruptcy but Mike was able to steered the ship through rough waters. They are not out of the woods but things are looking better. Everyone is focused on the stock price. You have to look at the big picture. Wall Street lost confidence in MNKD when Sanofi killed the deal. Wall Street knew rough times were ahead for MNKD. They received a Shitty Label for their ONLY product, No salesforce to market the drug, a new and "unproven" technology platform and a host of other issues like having terrible CEO's and one CEO backing out of taking the job. Mike walked into the LIONS DEN. Mike has made great strides with some hiccups but that's to be expected and now the future is looking brighter and it will take time to regain Wall Street's confidence. MNKD had ZERO coverage 2 years ago and now they have 5. More analysts will initiate coverage when Mike hits the road and tells the MNKD story. Mike did not have a story to tell 3 years ago. That has changed. SUCCESS IS IN PROGRESS |
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Post by morfu on May 24, 2020 9:17:37 GMT -5
He also keeps making critical mistakes! His "dillution instead of dept" policy will cost us a lot of money in the long run! Some may even say it is the sole cause for the current depressed share price! Any other company can find cheap money these days, why cant this management?
I disagree.....MNKD's financial condition was horrible when Mike took over. Mike could have taken the easy road and filed bankruptcy. And I know that was on the table. There is no such thing as CHEAP MONEY unless you're DXCM who just borrowed $1B at .25%. The credit markets are a ruthless business. When you have a shitty balance sheet there is no mercy. MNKD had to take the best deal possible and believe me the Deerfield Deal was the best deal at that time. There was not a foray of companies lining up to loan money to Mannkind. The reason for the depressed stock price is not due to dilution....It was their balance sheet and the fact that they needed to raise money. The SHORTS knew this and made things especially hard for MNKD. They are SHARKS and they smelled blood around MNKD. That's the reason for the depressed stock price. The SHORTS wanted bankruptcy but Mike was able to steered the ship through rough waters. They are not out of the woods but things are looking better. Everyone is focused on the stock price. You have to look at the big picture. Wall Street lost confidence in MNKD when Sanofi killed the deal. Wall Street knew rough times were ahead for MNKD. They received a Shitty Label for their ONLY product, No salesforce to market the drug, a new and "unproven" technology platform and a host of other issues like having terrible CEO's and one CEO backing out of taking the job. Mike walked into the LIONS DEN. Mike has made great strides with some hiccups but that's to be expected and now the future is looking brighter and it will take time to regain Wall Street's confidence. MNKD had ZERO coverage 2 years ago and now they have 5. More analysts will initiate coverage when Mike hits the road and tells the MNKD story. Mike did not have a story to tell 3 years ago. That has changed. SUCCESS IS IN PROGRESS Which "great strides" did he make? Maybe his success with commercials? Or the fact that we now have the double amount of shares but are debt free? The label and sales force were good enough to create a steady increasing revenue over the last years. Management could have influened the trend with a more competitive pricing, but they are trying to sell Cadillacs instead of Fords. I am particularly upset with that 20% dilution end of 2018, it brought about mil40$ had nothing to do with Deerfield and shows clearly, that the management is incapable of doing its job and get a proper funding! Other companies managed to borrow money in that time, end of 2018 beginning of 2019, why did the Mannkind management fail?
I am still very interested who got these shares, there is no reason to keep this information secret from the owners.. which is us the shareholders.
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Post by pat on May 24, 2020 10:03:49 GMT -5
There’s money enough to get us to cash flow positive.
In my humble opinion, of course.
Then the stock will be at a level that the ATM becomes a like a HEQ line.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 10:30:21 GMT -5
There’s money enough to get us to cash flow positive. In my humble opinion, of course. Then the stock will be at a level that the ATM becomes a like a HEQ line. MNKDs cash position is stable for the next 12-18 months. It will get them to Pediatric Approval and TreT Royalties. Once they get TreT Approval or if UTHR decides to move forward with Molecule #2 - I feel more companies will explore Technosphere and possibly sign a deal which will bring in more CASH. I know Mike likes to throw out nuggets and said many companies are inquiring but I take that with a pound of salt. Time will tell. |
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 10:32:56 GMT -5
I disagree.....MNKD's financial condition was horrible when Mike took over. Mike could have taken the easy road and filed bankruptcy. And I know that was on the table. There is no such thing as CHEAP MONEY unless you're DXCM who just borrowed $1B at .25%. The credit markets are a ruthless business. When you have a shitty balance sheet there is no mercy. MNKD had to take the best deal possible and believe me the Deerfield Deal was the best deal at that time. There was not a foray of companies lining up to loan money to Mannkind. The reason for the depressed stock price is not due to dilution....It was their balance sheet and the fact that they needed to raise money. The SHORTS knew this and made things especially hard for MNKD. They are SHARKS and they smelled blood around MNKD. That's the reason for the depressed stock price. The SHORTS wanted bankruptcy but Mike was able to steered the ship through rough waters. They are not out of the woods but things are looking better. Everyone is focused on the stock price. You have to look at the big picture. Wall Street lost confidence in MNKD when Sanofi killed the deal. Wall Street knew rough times were ahead for MNKD. They received a Shitty Label for their ONLY product, No salesforce to market the drug, a new and "unproven" technology platform and a host of other issues like having terrible CEO's and one CEO backing out of taking the job. Mike walked into the LIONS DEN. Mike has made great strides with some hiccups but that's to be expected and now the future is looking brighter and it will take time to regain Wall Street's confidence. MNKD had ZERO coverage 2 years ago and now they have 5. More analysts will initiate coverage when Mike hits the road and tells the MNKD story. Mike did not have a story to tell 3 years ago. That has changed. SUCCESS IS IN PROGRESS Which "great strides" did he make? Maybe his success with commercials? Or the fact that we now have the double amount of shares but are debt free? The label and sales force were good enough to create a steady increasing revenue over the last years. Management could have influened the trend with a more competitive pricing, but they are trying to sell Cadillacs instead of Fords. I am particularly upset with that 20% dilution end of 2018, it brought about mil40$ had nothing to do with Deerfield and shows clearly, that the management is incapable of doing its job and get a proper funding! Other companies managed to borrow money in that time, end of 2018 beginning of 2019, why did the Mannkind management fail?
I am still very interested who got these shares, there is no reason to keep this information secret from the owners.. which is us the shareholders.
It's apparent you are a glass half empty guy so I'm not going to get in a pissing match with you. If MNKD wasn't making great strides you would have sold your investment and moved on. The fact that you still own shares speaks volumes. GLTY |
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Post by morfu on May 24, 2020 11:16:26 GMT -5
Which "great strides" did he make? Maybe his success with commercials? Or the fact that we now have the double amount of shares but are debt free? The label and sales force were good enough to create a steady increasing revenue over the last years. Management could have influened the trend with a more competitive pricing, but they are trying to sell Cadillacs instead of Fords. I am particularly upset with that 20% dilution end of 2018, it brought about mil40$ had nothing to do with Deerfield and shows clearly, that the management is incapable of doing its job and get a proper funding! Other companies managed to borrow money in that time, end of 2018 beginning of 2019, why did the Mannkind management fail?
I am still very interested who got these shares, there is no reason to keep this information secret from the owners.. which is us the shareholders.
It's apparent you are a glass half empty guy so I'm not going to get in a pissing match with you. If MNKD wasn't making great strides you would have sold your investment and moved on. The fact that you still own shares speaks volumes. GLTY Yes I do believe in the product.. however, some of the actions/unactions of the management will cost me a lot of money. |
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Post by agedhippie on May 24, 2020 11:18:56 GMT -5
I'm cool with that. I want to make sure that people have the data to evaluate the underpinning of any point of view (including mine). I am still genuinely curious what you believe the time line for success looks like, and what would constitute success. Success for me is seeing Sales Increasing. Seeing more patients using Afrezza each month. Seeing the Salesforce growing. Seeing the company going in the right direction. I'm a patient investor and as long as I see the company making good decisions I am fine with it. Mike stepped into a bad situation and he has turned it around and now has a strong foundation and a strong management team. MNKD is stronger now than ever. Success is in progress. I am certain sales will increase and the salesforce has to grow for that to happen. The real question is what does successful sales growth look like. By your measure Mike would be judged a success as long as sales do not decline. Realistically MidCap has set the minimum growth numbers. Mike has to grow the Afrezza net revenue by 44% from today over the next year. That increases with time so next calendar year Mike has to hit an Afrezza net revenue increase of 59%. Is success better than the bare minimum to hit the MidCap target, and if so by how much? Or is simply meeting MidCap success (and failing to hit MidCap is failure)? |
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Post by rockstarrick on May 24, 2020 12:07:42 GMT -5
What a concept, money for growth and the chicks for free.
🎸😳
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But I am curious. What are the time lines you see on this?
