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Post by goyocafe on Aug 6, 2020 9:04:39 GMT -5
... Future Potential COVID-19 Inhaled Vaccine
“I'm hopeful as the vaccine comes available that we could be one of the partners to make an inhalable vaccine, like we've seen with the flu.”—Michael Castagna EC 8/5/20 That's really interesting about the flu vaccine. Does anyone know anything about this? Combined with his last comment about a wait and see approach, I’d say they are not working on anything COVID at the moment and have merely thrown their hat in the ring for consideration with a number of vaccine developers. He made no mention of any therapeutic compound which tells me there are none. They rarely spell it out for us. |
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Post by bill on Aug 6, 2020 9:48:35 GMT -5
Just think of how high the MNKD share price would be if we could have eliminated the dramatic price declines after nearly every conference call. You'd think after all these years that MNKD management would figure out how to support these calls so we could avoid them.  |
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Post by cjm18 on Aug 6, 2020 10:22:49 GMT -5
My summary from the conference call
63.5m in cash at June end. 12.5m coming from uhtr.
4.5m monthly burn rate in 1h2020
Tret-t filing expected 1Q2021
Preind sumatriptan expected 1q2021
ATM Shares are sold to institutional investors. Expect atm usage.
Peds trial starting next year.
Australia filing moving forward. Will be 18month process
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 6, 2020 13:17:30 GMT -5
I felt that the conference call showed that we are headed in the right direction. AND, in the previous 3 days pps went up 3 cents, 7 cents, and 20 cents. If we give back 20 cents today ... that means that I can still put in my 2 cents worth 5 more times.  But, that's mytakeonit And my daughter will still be happy if I buy her an Infiniti instead of the Lamborghini. |
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Aug 7, 2020 10:12:19 GMT -5
Having just listened to the call last night, my key takeaways include:
1. MannKind is continuing to improve across many dimensions including marketing, operational efficiency and cash position
2. MannKind is pretty unbelievably resilient, to be able to do #1 while COVID is driving down a quarter of sales and importantly, new starts
3. COVID forced MannKind to implement a telehealth model. This could end up being another nothing. It could also end up being extremely important. I’m sure most on this board saw the merger of Livongo (chronic condition / diabetes management company) with Teledoc a few days ago. If that does not validate MannKind entering the telehealth space, not sure what could.
4. I loved that Mike brought up two segments of investors, one who cares about Afrezza and thinks UTHR is icing on the cake, and one that wants exposure to UTHR (high-reward exposure I may add) where Aftezza is icing on the cake. And how they will converge over time into MannKind growth investors.
And my inferences include:
1. MannKind is still struggling to educate and change the behavior of Providers. They are hoping the new data being published this year will help in this effort. But as always, scripts are just around the corner from increasing (this time, the extremely valid reason for the slump being COVID).
2. As we move towards UTHR filing and each step is complete, the value of the company will inherently increase to reflect increased certainty of high-margin licensing revenue
3. In light of the financial position MannKind has put themselves in, catalysts include increase in Afrezza sales (I’m guessing low ramp would be nice in 2020, but more meaningful increase in 2021 due to publications, new execs, Brazil, etc) AND / OR as we get closer to UTHR product approval and launch. I honestly think UTHR compound provides us a ticking clock - as it gets through approvals (fingers crossed), the share price won’t be able to stay at the current levels.
In summary, MannKind is in the lowest-risk position I think I have seen them with a diversified stream of future revenues to get excited about. If they do well in telehealth, it could be quite meaningful. They still need to improve in their physician strategy and execution. But outside of that, they’re doing a lot of important things right.
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 10, 2020 9:00:06 GMT -5
... 2. MannKind is pretty unbelievably resilient, to be able to do #1 while COVID is driving down a quarter of sales and importantly, new starts ... This is a common misunderstanding. Insulin is not a discretionary spend. If you are on insulin then you have to keep taking it whatever is going on unlike a lot of drugs that you can drop for a while (statins for example). COVID significantly impacting new starts is a valid concern, COVID significantly impacting renewals is not. |
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Post by Clement on Aug 10, 2020 9:07:21 GMT -5
From the earnings call, I see now that TreT will bring two revenue streams:
1. Royalties
2. Contract manufacturing
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 10, 2020 9:19:34 GMT -5
From the earnings call, I see now that TreT will bring two revenue streams: 1. Royalties 2. Contract manufacturing And I cannot see UTHR taking manufacturing in-house since it is so specialized so that stream will persist. |
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Post by factspls88 on Aug 10, 2020 9:51:28 GMT -5
Affordability, driven by insurance coverage is still a big concern of mine.
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Post by mango on Aug 10, 2020 11:14:47 GMT -5
From the earnings call, I see now that TreT will bring two revenue streams: 1. Royalties 2. Contract manufacturing And United Therapeutics becomes more and more dependent on MannKind’s success. I see this as merely the beginning stages of their partnership. Just wait until TreT approval. 🚀 |
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Post by Clement on Aug 10, 2020 11:35:03 GMT -5
Affordability, driven by insurance coverage is still a big concern of mine. I like the question, but I was thinking TreT with dreamboat would be priced very little more than Tyvaso with nebulizer and supplies. What I just said was my guess (a WAG). Do you have info about pricing? |
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Post by matt on Aug 10, 2020 11:56:12 GMT -5
Affordability, driven by insurance coverage is still a big concern of mine. I like the question, but I was thinking TreT with dreamboat would be priced very little more than Tyvaso with nebulizer and supplies. What I just said was my guess (a WAG). Do you have info about pricing? Pricing will be up to UTHR and that doesn't usually get announced until the product is approved or very late in the approval process. Normally a company will charge a premium for a new formulation, but there are Tyvaso competitors that will be eating into UTHR's market share so a "new and improved" formulation at about the same price is a good way to retain market share. So long as it does not result in a huge price hike, it may not cause much of a stink with managed care companies. The unknown is what happens with Liquida's product. Liquida and UTHR are doing the usual dance in court as UTHR tries to slow its competitor, but they are destined to lose that game (although a six month delay in market entry might justify the legal expenses). When Liquida hits the market with their inhaled version, that will set the bar for how much UTHR can charge for TreT. Sometimes companies are happy to price high and enjoy some of the spoils from owning part of a highly-priced therapeutic segment, while others will try to compete on price and grab market share by undercutting established players. It is impossible to say what Liquida is thinking at this stage. |
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Post by Clement on Aug 13, 2020 9:52:08 GMT -5
From the earnings call, I see now that TreT will bring two revenue streams: 1. Royalties 2. Contract manufacturing Suppose Rothblatt is correct that TreT will launch in 2021. I assume royalties happen after sales to patients, and revenue from royalties will lag the launch. However, revenues from contract manufacturing would anticipate the launch because billing would normally occur when shipped from Mannkind to wholesales, distributors or pharmacies. I am guessing that revenue from contract manufacturing could begin in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. |
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