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Post by piccolopete on Aug 23, 2013 9:34:52 GMT -5
IMHO, justified. I think Al Mann's "BlockBuster Drug" bravado is just that, bravado. I agree with Adam Feuerstein - the data wasn't all that impressive, and the info withheld on the Medtone arm is troubling. I do give the odds of approval an increase over his though at 60-40.
The so-called hit pieces re: MNKD's market cap are right on target. The 2nd CRL caused massive dilution, and hence, a $4 or $5 pps at this point is justified.
The hiring of Greenhill - MNKD needs a deal to get done pre-FDA approval date. They need the funds. Whether or not any BP will be willing to step up and take the chance given the variables remains to be seen. I certainly think MNKD's past statements about all the partners they were dealing with was more bravado.
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 23, 2013 9:43:43 GMT -5
Yep, Deerfield and Greenhill just like to waste time and in Deerfield's case, $80 million in hard money. Your first post's timing is certainly interesting.....
Liane, to keep it from getting personal, is there an ignore feature on this MB?
Yes, just now Ignored this particular poster, aaaaahhhhhhh, much better!
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 23, 2013 9:56:37 GMT -5
Piccolopete:
I would beg to differ in Fudstains calculation of the market cap. The difference now is the potential market has grown by 900%, as the last FDA submission was geared towards Type 1 only submission. So if we want to use his logic of then and now the calculation might be closer to the following:
(Price at pre 2nd FDA Decision / dilution) X increase in market potential * probability of success
=($9.64/ (100% + 300% (warrants))) X (100% (T1) + 900%(T2)) * 80% (trials succeeding phase 3, even high for those stepping up for third time)
=$9.64/4*10 * 80%
=$19.28
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 23, 2013 9:58:55 GMT -5
OOG, you may have "confused (mostly)" on your profile, but I think you have extraordinary clarity!
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Post by piccolopete on Aug 23, 2013 9:59:06 GMT -5
Well, I certainly hope there is room on this board for "other opinions". I do not mean to be insulting and would like to keep this professional.
Re: Deerfield - let's be honest, they have some risk, certainly acceptable to them taking into consideration the manner in which the deal was structured.
MNKD has been scrambling for funds ever since the 2nd CRL. One can't blame AL for not wanting to pony up any more funds given the massive amount he has contributed to see Afrezza through to the finish line.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 23, 2013 10:26:40 GMT -5
PP: Definitely room for other opinions, hence forth why I trot out mine on the subject. Pretty sure there are a few that will be rolling their eyes thinking there goes OOG again...
But I feel pretty confident that because this was supposed to be a bridging study that we have met the requested clarification of the last CRL and that we got the bonus of the added Type 2 market.
I like to play around with spread sheets and have a couple samples up for public debate (originally discussed at Agoracom) and the links are available here on our site now as well. It turns out that you will need a gmail account to see them, even though I attempted to make them avail (twice) to anyone with the link, but it does not seem to want to stick.
The reason I trot out the above calculation is that I (with numbers from public sources and others at Agoracom) came up with the following potential for MNKD at FDA + 10 years although with a partner I believe that it may be possible in 5 or less (Sorry for the formatting).
Post Approval Y10-----Model 1 (NA)---Model 2 (NA & Euro)---Model 3 (World)
Share Count-----------550,000,000----550,000,000-----------550,000,000
Total Market Size------40,000,000-----75,000,000-----------285,000,000
Market Share-------------------20%------------20%-------------------20%
MNKD Market-------------8,000,000-----15,000,000------------57,000,000
Partner EBITA Share---------25.00%------------25%-------------------25%
Output Capacity --------8,000,016-----15,000,030------------57,000,114
Dividend Rate ----------------4%-------------4%--------------------4%
P/E Ratio ------------18.00----------18.00-----------------18.00
Share Price using P/E-----$120.31--------$257.13---------------$969.80
Dividend--------------------$4.81---------$10.29----------------$38.79
Enjoy,
OOG
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Post by StevieRay on Aug 23, 2013 11:23:30 GMT -5
Yep, Deerfield and Greenhill just like to waste time and in Deerfield's case, $80 million in hard money. Your first post's timing is certainly interesting..... Liane, to keep it from getting personal, is there an ignore feature on this MB? Yes, just now Ignored this particular poster, aaaaahhhhhhh, much better! mdcenter61, I know you’re frustrated with the negative poster(s) but we are much more convincing and persuasive when we hold our ground and defend our position regardless of how ludicrous the opposition is in their arguments. |
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 23, 2013 12:29:31 GMT -5
Stevie - I agree and am with you. Obviously today (and the last week) has been very difficult. My best course would probably be to stay off MB's totally and trust in my own due diligence, but I do value 90% of the views here in they are logical in their approach and not just blindly pumping or bashing. I just found it curious that someone shows up on the heels of fraudstein's comments and the recent discussion of the infiltration of bash posters onto various Boards. I haven't sold a share and figure if Al Mann can put up $1 billion and Deerfield can put up $80 million that I can hang with my measly 40K shares. Thanks, bro!
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Post by StevieRay on Aug 23, 2013 12:47:57 GMT -5
Stevie - I agree and am with you. Obviously today (and the last week) has been very difficult. My best course would probably be to stay off MB's totally and trust in my own due diligence, but I do value 90% of the views here in they are logical in their approach and not just blindly pumping or bashing. I just found it curious that someone shows up on the heels of fraudstein's comments and the recent discussion of the infiltration of bash posters onto various Boards. I haven't sold a share and figure if Al Mann can put up $1 billion and Deerfield can put up $80 million that I can hang with my measly 40K shares. Thanks, bro! mdcenter61, I think times like these call for some commiseration and plenty of White Russians.  It’s not easy to make money in the market these days otherwise everyone would be doing it. There are so many man-eating sharks in the water and can smell blood from miles away. Just the smell of fear brings out the worst in some. But if Al can handle these wild swings then I too will muster the courage to make it through. Just hanging out here listening to all the discussions goes along way for me. I guess it’s sort of like Group Therapy. Cheers and Thank You and All The Other Fine Posters! Hope you all have a great weekend! |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Aug 23, 2013 12:48:52 GMT -5
Sorry, forgot to mention in my PPS projections above that fails to :
- include potential pre-diabetic and Type 3 (Alzheimer's if you want to go out on a real limb) as part of the marketshare;
- include additional applications of technology outside diabetic/insulin sphere.
- use any probability decision trees; and
- make any accommodation for Time Value calculations adjustments.
OOG
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Post by liane on Aug 23, 2013 13:03:06 GMT -5
Cheers and Thank You and All The Other Fine Posters! Hope you all have a great weekend! And to you as well StevieRay!  |
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Post by spiro on Aug 23, 2013 14:07:19 GMT -5
liane,
I agree with Stevieray, an ignore button would be useful. I personally do not want to have to filter through the messages of some posters on this board, especially Douge and now this pp guy. Is there an ignore button?
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Post by BD on Aug 23, 2013 14:09:53 GMT -5
liane, I agree with Stevieray, an ignore button would be useful. I personally do not want to have to filter through the messages of some posters on this board, especially Douge and now this pp guy. Is there an ignore button? It's not a "button", but yes, the functionality is there. If you click on "Profile" at the top of your screen, then "Edit Profile", then the "Privacy" tab, down at the bottom you'll see a "Member Block List" section. Put someone's name in there, and it will bring up a smorgasbord of ways to block them. |
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It’s not easy to make money in the market these days otherwise everyone would be doing it. There are so many man-eating sharks in the water and can smell blood from miles away. Just the smell of fear brings out the worst in some. But if Al can handle these wild swings then I too will muster the courage to make it through. Just hanging out here listening to all the discussions goes along way for me. I guess it’s sort of like Group Therapy.
