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Post by figglebird on Aug 22, 2020 10:19:02 GMT -5
describing liquidia as a standalone or go alone at one time was accurate - separately one could surmise reasons why mankind and United therapeutics ended up partnering over what is clearly going to be a betterment of life for 10-50k people.
that said when you look back at United therapeutics arguably sucsessful track record in defending their moat, 2 things stand out.
1. they lawyer up to the tilt. settlement that delays generic entry which in the case of tyvasso extended exclusivity by 5-7 years. this outcome has dealt primarily with stallimg multi billion dollar companies such as Watson/Sandoz/Novartis from mkt share
2. outcome two - after exhausting ALL legal action against smaller micro cap companies such as steadymed - a company that was successful in patent challenges against uthr thus clearing a pathway to market under 5052b for their imprived version of TREPOSTINAL INFUSION - Martine ponied up the cash and bought THE complentary tech that threatenED the moat - thus protecting or even extending exclusivity
now all that said there is no doubt liquidia and potential backers of that company know uthrs recird and have thus now merged with rare gen a company which holds the commercial rights to generic remodulin/Sandoz
Now as a two prouct threat to moat it appears liquidia is positioning itself as a buyout candidate -
either way we are the start of what may shape up to be a mass movement to dpi usage - tyvasso will illustrate this
dreamboat and all that comes with its recent patent grant places mnkd at the forefront - regardless of formulation.
liq/techno sphere aside, mnkd has diversified its presence fully - now evolved and ready as the one stop shop.
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 23, 2020 13:28:01 GMT -5
describing liquidia as a standalone or go alone at one time was accurate - separately one could surmise reasons why mankind and United therapeutics ended up partnering over what is clearly going to be a betterment of life for 10-50k people. that said when you look back at United therapeutics arguably sucsessful track record in defending their moat, 2 things stand out. 1. they lawyer up to the tilt. settlement that delays generic entry which in the case of tyvasso extended exclusivity by 5-7 years. this outcome has dealt primarily with stallimg multi billion dollar companies such as Watson/Sandoz/Novartis from mkt share 2. outcome two - after exhausting ALL legal action against smaller micro cap companies such as steadymed - a company that was successful in patent challenges against uthr thus clearing a pathway to market under 5052b for their imprived version of TREPOSTINAL INFUSION - Martine ponied up the cash and bought THE complentary tech that threatenED the moat - thus protecting or even extending exclusivity now all that said there is no doubt liquidia and potential backers of that company know uthrs recird and have thus now merged with rare gen a company which holds the commercial rights to generic remodulin/Sandoz Now as a two prouct threat to moat it appears liquidia is positioning itself as a buyout candidate - either way we are the start of what may shape up to be a mass movement to dpi usage - tyvasso will illustrate this dreamboat and all that comes with its recent patent grant places mnkd at the forefront - regardless of formulation. liq/techno sphere aside, mnkd has diversified its presence fully - now evolved and ready as the one stop shop. It will be interesting to see how this goes. UTHR are unlikely to be able to block, or even slow Liquidia, because UTHR's case is based on the continuation patents of an invalidated patent (courtesy of SteadyMed). Once the continuation patents are invalidated as well then the UTHR lawsuit is over. The lawsuit makes sense because if, against all the odds, the patent is not invalidated UTHR want to be in a position to block Liquidia. UTHR would have difficulty buying Liquidia because the agreement with Mannkind specifically forbids this: During the Term, neither United Therapeutics nor any of its Affiliates (subject to Section 15.10) shall develop, manufacture or commercialize, or authorize any Third Party to develop, manufacture or commercialize any product (other than Product) containing or comprising any dry powder formulation of API that is or is intended to be primarily administered in or through the lungs.
This all comes down to how nice Liquidia wants to play. They can split up the market with UTHR, or they can compete on price and become the favored drug in the formularies. My bet is that both sides would rather keep the price high and split the market between them. |
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Post by matt on Aug 24, 2020 7:24:38 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see how this goes. UTHR are unlikely to be able to block, or even slow Liquidia, because UTHR's case is based on the continuation patents of an invalidated patent (courtesy of SteadyMed). Once the continuation patents are invalidated as well then the UTHR lawsuit is over. The lawsuit makes sense because if, against all the odds, the patent is not invalidated UTHR want to be in a position to block Liquidia. UTHR would have difficulty buying Liquidia because the agreement with Mannkind specifically forbids this: During the Term, neither United Therapeutics nor any of its Affiliates (subject to Section 15.10) shall develop, manufacture or commercialize, or authorize any Third Party to develop, manufacture or commercialize any product (other than Product) containing or comprising any dry powder formulation of API that is or is intended to be primarily administered in or through the lungs.
This all comes down to how nice Liquidia wants to play. They can split up the market with UTHR, or they can compete on price and become the favored drug in the formularies. My bet is that both sides would rather keep the price high and split the market between them. I don't think the existing agreement between UTHR and MNKD would pose any barrier at all to a Liquida deal. Section 12.3(a) of that agreement also specifies this: "United Therapeutics shall have the right to terminate this Agreement in its entirety or with respect to (i) a Development Plan or (ii) any particular Product, at any time for any reason or for no reason upon delivery of at least 90 days’ prior written notice to MannKind."That sentence is pretty much boilerplate language for any drug development agreement; the guy writing the biggest checks can always walk away just like Sanofi did when they terminated the distribution agreement several years ago. The 90 day notice period is almost a joke since it would take UTHR and Liquida that long to complete closing formalities on a transaction. What it really comes down to is how much UTHR would have to pay for Liquida and the perceived value of keeping a competitor out of the market for some period of time. It also comes down to the question of who has the best delivery technology which would pit Technosphere against the Liquida technology. My guess is that they are both reasonably effective and that there would be no clear winner in a head-to-head duel which brings the analysis back to the competitive landscape. I agree with you that once SteadyMed invalidated the underlying patent the legal strategy of blocking Liquida based on a CIP was doomed to the point that it might get decided on a summary judgment; Liquida will have to be dealt with in the market. Of course if UTHR terminates the contract then MNKD could still commercialize its product that it can find a source for the API, which probably is not a big deal, provided it can find a new partner willing to take on UTHR as the cost of rerunning the clinical studies would be beyond the ability of MNKD to fund by itself, not to mention the cost of market launch. I think we are about to find out how much UTHR values market exclusivity for an additional two or three years. |
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 24, 2020 8:17:10 GMT -5
I don't think the existing agreement between UTHR and MNKD would pose any barrier at all to a Liquida deal. Section 12.3(a) of that agreement also specifies this: "United Therapeutics shall have the right to terminate this Agreement in its entirety or with respect to (i) a Development Plan or (ii) any particular Product, at any time for any reason or for no reason upon delivery of at least 90 days’ prior written notice to MannKind."That sentence is pretty much boilerplate language for any drug development agreement; the guy writing the biggest checks can always walk away just like Sanofi did when they terminated the distribution agreement several years ago. The 90 day notice period is almost a joke since it would take UTHR and Liquida that long to complete closing formalities on a transaction. What it really comes down to is how much UTHR would have to pay for Liquida and the perceived value of keeping a competitor out of the market for some period of time. It also comes down to the question of who has the best delivery technology which would pit Technosphere against the Liquida technology. My guess is that they are both reasonably effective and that there would be no clear winner in a head-to-head duel which brings the analysis back to the competitive landscape. I agree with you that once SteadyMed invalidated the underlying patent the legal strategy of blocking Liquida based on a CIP was doomed to the point that it might get decided on a summary judgment; Liquida will have to be dealt with in the market. Of course if UTHR terminates the contract then MNKD could still commercialize its product that it can find a source for the API, which probably is not a big deal, provided it can find a new partner willing to take on UTHR as the cost of rerunning the clinical studies would be beyond the ability of MNKD to fund by itself, not to mention the cost of market launch. I think we are about to find out how much UTHR values market exclusivity for an additional two or three years. I slipped there. I should have checked the termination clauses rather than just focusing on the obligations. If UTHR bought Liquidia it would more or less have to use the Liquidia product and technology in order to recover the costs - the manufacturing would be moved to the now UTHR owned Liquidia plant, and they would avoid having to pay royalties on revenue to Mannkind which instead would pass directly to their bottom line. |
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Post by Clement on Aug 24, 2020 8:41:30 GMT -5
My guess is that TreT flies better. Uthr would go with the superior product.
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Post by mango on Aug 24, 2020 14:23:15 GMT -5
Amazes me the amount of time committed to researching this company some people do despite supposedly having no financial position whatsoever.
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 24, 2020 14:45:30 GMT -5
My guess is that TreT flies better. Uthr would go with the superior product. My suspicion would strongly be that under those circumstances they would go with the more profitable product. Thinking about it, have Liquidia published their results? |
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 24, 2020 14:48:56 GMT -5
Amazes me the amount of time committed to researching this company some people do despite supposedly having no financial position whatsoever. It takes a lot less time than you seem to think. I would be surprised if I spent more than 15 minutes a day on the board which is basically nothing. |
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Post by mango on Aug 24, 2020 14:50:29 GMT -5
Amazes me the amount of time committed to researching this company some people do despite supposedly having no financial position whatsoever. It takes a lot less time than you seem to think. I would be surprised if I spent more than 15 minutes a day on the board which is basically nothing. You’ve been saying that for years now. I’m pretty familiar with how much time it takes to do the research you and Matt do. |
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Post by porkini on Aug 24, 2020 15:09:21 GMT -5
Amazes me the amount of time committed to researching this company some people do despite supposedly having no financial position whatsoever. It takes a lot less time than you seem to think. I would be surprised if I spent more than 15 minutes a day on the board which is basically nothing. Depends on if it is during the first hour of your day or the last hour? If it is the first hour, it is one quarter of your day and left to get out of hand, could wind up being 6 hours!  (prolly only funny to me, ha!) |
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 24, 2020 15:56:13 GMT -5
It takes a lot less time than you seem to think. I would be surprised if I spent more than 15 minutes a day on the board which is basically nothing. You’ve been saying that for years now. I’m pretty familiar with how much time it takes to do the research you and Matt do. Maybe you are more thorough than I am  I expect it's less effort for Matt because he already knows the stuff he talks about. Besides, it's a hobby at this point until the stock starts to turn and I can jump in again. |
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 24, 2020 20:27:31 GMT -5
Amazes me the amount of time committed to researching this company some people do despite supposedly having no financial position whatsoever. It takes a lot less time than you seem to think. I would be surprised if I spent more than 15 minutes a day on the board which is basically nothing. That’s funny, Aged One, really is. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 24, 2020 20:34:48 GMT -5
Are we really doing this again!?
I do the same thing on the SENS Stocktwits thread. I’m just waiting and watching, they seem to despise their CEO. I do send them information once in a while like today when Laura redid her implant.
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Post by bones1026 on Aug 24, 2020 21:26:44 GMT -5
Are we really doing this again!? I do the same thing on the SENS Stocktwits thread. I’m just waiting and watching, they seem to despise their CEO. I do send them information once in a while like today when Laura redid her implant. Doing what again? |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 24, 2020 23:25:19 GMT -5
Are we really doing this again!? I do the same thing on the SENS Stocktwits thread. I’m just waiting and watching, they seem to despise their CEO. I do send them information once in a while like today when Laura redid her implant. Doing what again? Questioning aged:-) |
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(prolly only funny to me, ha!)
