MNKD Oppenheimer 2021 Notes

[cretin11]

Sept 23, 2020 13:28:42 GMT -5 mytakeonit said:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JgEptmz_eE

Would you sell MNKD for $10B

But, that's mytakeonit

That would be about $22 per share, what an insulting offer that would be!

[mytakeonit]

But, I would be a Kazillionaire !!! Wait, I may already be one.

But, that's mytakeonit

[castlerockchris]

Sept 23, 2020 13:36:36 GMT -5 cretin11 said:

Sept 23, 2020 13:28:42 GMT -5 mytakeonit said:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JgEptmz_eE

Would you sell MNKD for $10B

But, that's mytakeonit

That would be about $22 per share, what an insulting offer that would be![/

I must stink at math if a 10 billion market cap equates to $22 per share. Either that or Mike tapped the ATM in a big big way, and got another one approved while I was not looking. Damn, should I sharpen my math skills or stop taking naps?

[gamblerjag]

Sept 24, 2020 14:45:21 GMT -5 castlerockchris said:

Sept 23, 2020 13:36:36 GMT -5 cretin11 said:

That would be about $22 per share, what an insulting offer that would be![/

I must stink at math if a 10 billion market cap equates to $22 per share. Either that or Mike tapped the ATM in a big big way, and got another one approved while I was not looking. Damn, should I sharpen my math skills or stop taking naps?

. $44 a share

[cretin11]

gamblerjag is correct, it's $44 not $22. Not quite as insulting an offer as would be a mere $22 per share, but still a pittance considering the embarrassment of riches and veins of gold...

[mango]

$44 would be tempting.

I don’t like to be tempted so let’s make it $50

[mango]

A few quick notes

United Therapeutics Oppenheimer 2020 Notes

✅ $LQDA patent litigation is going to get dragged on for a long time (possibly well over another year at least)

✅ If $UTHR receives approval for Tyvaso Group 3 PAH it will grant them an additional 3 years exclusivity (ILD + COPD)

✅ TreT is both qualitatively and quantitatively better than anything they have ever seen

✅ TreT FDA filing in early 2021

✅ TreT FDA approval in could take up to 1H 2022 (they don’t know yet)

✅ UT has tremendous supply chain reliability with prescribers, patients and payers that is highly respected and trusted

✅ Expect TreT launch in 2022

✅ TreT will be used for Group 3 PAH (ILD-PH and COPD-PH)

✅ NO approved therapies for ILD-PH (30K pts) and COPD-PH (100K pts) Tyvaso/TreT will have years of exclusivity and will be the ONLY approved therapy—NO COMPETITION—130K pts total in just that single group exclusive to Tyvaso/TreT

✅ UT will conduct a BREEZE 2 clinical trial for TreT for Group 3 PAH if necessary and will have it ready to submit to FDA same time as expected TreT approval for Group 1 PAH

✅ Tyvaso found to have disease modifying capabilities in PF subset pts in the INCREASE trial (improved FVC) this is HUGE

✅ Tyvaso/TreT will garner more pts in Group 3 PAH than all of UT’s therapies for Group 1 combined

[sportsrancho]

✅2023 calls:-) Less money tied up:-)

[mango]

How much are those calls Rooks? How do they work? 2023 calls would be where it’s aaaaaaaat!

I don’t know how to do calls though ☹️

When would one need to hypothetically get these calls? Is there a deadline? Cheaper now than say 6 months from now? 🤷‍♂️

[mango]

I’m amazed no one chatting about this—TreT will have 3 years of exclusivity for Group 3 PAH which is for 130K patients. This does not even include the patients on Tyvaso for Group 1 PAH.

Group 3 = ILD-PH (30K pts) + COPD-PH (100K pts) = 130K patients. Even if we only garner half of that it is still with no competitors and with exclusivity. Do the math. 

Not only will TreT have a window of exclusivity (3 years) there will be ZERO competition as there is ZERO approved therapies for Group 3 PAH.

This will easily be >$100M in annual royalties (from one single product franchise!) 

I can’t spell it out any more clearer than this

[cjm18]

Expect TreT launch in 2022 Ouch.

[mango]

Sept 24, 2020 19:13:12 GMT -5 cjm18 said:

Expect TreT launch in 2022 Ouch.

Martine said that was a fair expectation. Things may go differently and we get approval sooner and launch sooner, but it is what it is. One thing I have learned is if you don’t have patience, or are unable to adapt with patience, then you will be miserable investing in biotech. It is not a short term horizon timeline.

There is tons of good news despite the 2022 launch timeline. We also have Sumatriptan Technosphere Phase 1 being initiated in in 2021 so there is definitely something concrete to look forward to. 

Afrezza Peds Phase 3 will be happening sometime amidst all this as well and that is exciting too. 

One of Al Mann’s key ingredients for success was patience. If you don’t have it, then good luck! 

[mango]

On another note: things don’t look great for Liquidia. Patent litigation looks like it will go on for at least another year now. It may not, but the chances of it doing so are actually pretty high. Not to mention, Liquidia will not be able to piggy back off us with the Group 3 PAH 130K patient population as we will have 3 years of exclusivity. If trials are required (which UT is fully prepared for with BREEEZE 2, which will not extend our approval timeline), that would mean Liquidia would have to conduct trials for Group 3 PAH patients which would take a very long time.

[olebob1]

Sept 24, 2020 17:55:50 GMT -5 mango said:

How much are those calls Rooks? How do they work? 2023 calls would be where it’s aaaaaaaat!

I don’t know how to do calls though ☹️

When would one need to hypothetically get these calls? Is there a deadline? Cheaper now than say 6 months from now? 🤷‍♂️

Rooks maybe buying the calls that I am selling. I sold 200 calls with strike $3.00 for Feb 19, 2021. I am covered on the calls.  I have many more shares that will be happy if the price is over $3.00 on Feb 19, 2021.

The premium has already been reinvested in more MNKD.

[mango]

Sept 24, 2020 19:51:45 GMT -5 olebob1 said:

Sept 24, 2020 17:55:50 GMT -5 mango said:

How much are those calls Rooks? How do they work? 2023 calls would be where it’s aaaaaaaat!

I don’t know how to do calls though ☹️

When would one need to hypothetically get these calls? Is there a deadline? Cheaper now than say 6 months from now? 🤷‍♂️

Rooks maybe buying the calls that I am selling. I sold 200 calls with strike $3.00 for Feb 19, 2021. I am covered on the calls.  I have many more shares that will be happy if the price is over $3.00 on Feb 19, 2021.

The premium has already been reinvested in more MNKD.

How much do those 200 calls cost to buy? And the price has to be at or above $3 to win? I don’t see the PPS being at $3 by next Feb but hope I’m wong.