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Post by longliner on Jun 17, 2021 11:37:18 GMT -5
This is the test case that all potential Technosphere partners are watching.
Afrezza was a Mannkind product brought to market in conjuntion with Technosphere.
Tyvaso is a UTHR product on Technosphere.
This is the proof of concept for the Technosphere / Bluehale platform as a partnership drug delivery system.
If this smoothly moves through the FDA approval process...."Katy bar the door" for drug partnership interest utilizing Technosphere. IMHO
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Post by neil36 on Jun 17, 2021 12:00:33 GMT -5
If Tyvaso DPI gets approved in October, the conversion rate to Tyvaso DPI will be the key metric to watch. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility for the royalties from Tyvaso DPI to quickly surpass revenues from Afrezza.
In the most recent quarter, MNKD reported just shy of $8.1 million in net revenue from Afrezza. (In the same quarter 2020, it was $8.0 million.)
UTHR would need to see roughly $80 million in quarterly Tyvaso DPI sales in order to owe MNKD at least $8 million in royalties.
In the most recent quarter, United reported Tyvaso sales of $123 million.
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Post by Clement on Jun 17, 2021 12:09:16 GMT -5
Continuing,assuming conversion rate of 70% as UTHR has said they expect:
70% of 10% of $123M is about $8.6M.
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Post by cedafuntennis on Jun 17, 2021 12:47:52 GMT -5
Continuing,assuming conversion rate of 70% as UTHR has said they expect: 70% of 10% of $123M is about $8.6M. what's the 10% for? |
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Post by boca1girl on Jun 17, 2021 12:53:31 GMT -5
Continuing,assuming conversion rate of 70% as UTHR has said they expect: 70% of 10% of $123M is about $8.6M. what's the 10% for? Low double digits royalty, assumes 10%. $12.3M royalty for 100% conversion, or $8.6M if only 70% convert to T-DPI. |
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Post by cedafuntennis on Jun 17, 2021 13:25:03 GMT -5
OK, that is reasonable. It does not however account for the expansion in label which could drastically increase the $128M number. Granted, that will take at least 1 year if not longer to materialize, but the potential is there and the market moves on future events.
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Post by buyitonsale on Jun 17, 2021 13:59:58 GMT -5
UTHR is projecting to double Tyvaso patients in 2022. See slide 7. s1.q4cdn.com/284080987/files/doc_presentations/2021/05/2021-05-05-UTHR-corporate-presentation.pdfThat should translate to Tyvaso revenue of about 900MM or more by end of 2022. During the latest conference they also commented that they expect 70% conversion from Tyvaso to Tyvaso DPI . You can then derive the 70% conversion to Tyvaso DPI and 10% royalty as a minimum. We also know that MNKD will be getting manufacturing revenue for Tyvaso DPI as well, which should offset the Dunbury expenses overall (including those related to Afrezza). I believe that MNKD will start reporting positive net quarterly earnings starting with Q2 2022 at the latest. |
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Post by porkini on Jun 17, 2021 14:09:03 GMT -5
OK, that is reasonable. It does not however account for the expansion in label which could drastically increase the $128M number. Granted, that will take at least 1 year if not longer to materialize, but the potential is there and the market moves on future events. I took it that neil36 and Clement were simply trying to put up a realistic MINIMUM starting point for the rest of us and not a pie-in-the-sky projected number. In other words, something with an extremely high degree of certainty. |
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Post by neil36 on Jun 17, 2021 14:19:40 GMT -5
OK, that is reasonable. It does not however account for the expansion in label which could drastically increase the $128M number. Granted, that will take at least 1 year if not longer to materialize, but the potential is there and the market moves on future events. I took it that neil36 and Clement were simply trying to put up a realistic MINIMUM starting point for the rest of us and not a pie-in-the-sky projected number. In other words, something with an extremely high degree of certainty. Yes, I was just trying do some back-o-napkin math to take a guess at when Tyvaso DPI royalties could exceed Afrezza net revenue. It could come stunningly quickly after FDA approval. |
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Post by casualinvestor on Jun 17, 2021 14:20:52 GMT -5
It will take months to get people converted even up to 70%, at the same time that new people are being added. Also, manufacturing revenue. So it's going to be a pretty fluid projection for a while.
But $10M revenue from Tyvaso DPI per quarter looks like a reasonable ballpark for Q2/Q3 2022, and going up from there.
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Post by mcbone on Jun 17, 2021 14:28:05 GMT -5
I think most on this msg board would agree that the upward trend in share price over the past many months has been driven by the UTHR/Tyvaso deal. But doesn’t it seem like today’s and yesterday’s reaction in the share price is quite meager relative to the great news we just got on FDA acceptance and the projected completion date for the FDA review?
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Post by awesomo on Jun 17, 2021 15:00:56 GMT -5
I think most on this msg board would agree that the upward trend in share price over the past many months has been driven by the UTHR/Tyvaso deal. But doesn’t it seem like today’s and yesterday’s reaction in the share price is quite meager relative to the great news we just got on FDA acceptance and the projected completion date for the FDA review? Something expected to happen isn't going to move the market much, it was mostly priced in already. |
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Post by mcbone on Jun 17, 2021 15:13:35 GMT -5
I think most on this msg board would agree that the upward trend in share price over the past many months has been driven by the UTHR/Tyvaso deal. But doesn’t it seem like today’s and yesterday’s reaction in the share price is quite meager relative to the great news we just got on FDA acceptance and the projected completion date for the FDA review? Something expected to happen isn't going to move the market much, it was mostly priced in already. I get that. But wasn't the projected approval date a surprise - 2 months earlier than anticipated? And the fact that MNKD is hiring 100 new employees seems like big news even if we already knew they'd have to hire new people to produce Tyvaso. I am hoping for a delayed reaction in the share price, meaning a steady increase over the next few months prior to actual FDA approval. |
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Post by awesomo on Jun 17, 2021 15:18:23 GMT -5
Something expected to happen isn't going to move the market much, it was mostly priced in already. I get that. But wasn't the projected approval date a surprise - 2 months earlier than anticipated? And the fact that MNKD is hiring 100 new employees seems like big news even if we already knew they'd have to hire new people to produce Tyvaso. I am hoping for a delayed reaction in the share price, meaning a steady increase over the next few months prior to actual FDA approval. If the royalties/revenue start coming in, that's when we get a steady upwards trajectory on the share price. This company has long overstayed it's welcome on "promise and hype". |
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Post by peppy on Jun 17, 2021 15:23:15 GMT -5
It will take months to get people converted even up to 70%, at the same time that new people are being added. Also, manufacturing revenue. So it's going to be a pretty fluid projection for a while. But $10M revenue from Tyvaso DPI per quarter looks like a reasonable ballpark for Q2/Q3 2022, and going up from there. don't forget about samples. Samples will be a revenue lump of money? I type this because samples were huge for MNKD, something about gold. |
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