|
|
Post by mannmade on Sept 9, 2014 18:44:55 GMT -5
So I took away a couple of items of fact from today's conf call much of what has already been discussed above so I won't rehash.... But for me at least, two of the most important items have not been discussed as follows:
1.) As I have mentioned in earlier posts following my take on some positives from the deal when it was first announced, cash position and P&L will start to look a lot better in 4th Q. I may have said by end of 3rd Q but nonetheless this is significant for investing community especially for the funds and this should lead to some share price appreciation on it's own as the funds begin to invest in earnest...
2.) Matt specifically said they were very proud of the fact that over the last couple of years they have been spot on about keeping their word when they speak to events, dates and other such statements they make. So we should all take heart (and Mannkind at their word) that commercial production will begin in November and launch in mid 1stQ of 2015, which is 02.15.14 in my calendar and now my new countdown clock...
Going to be a good 2015 as far as I can see... GLTA!!
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris on Sept 9, 2014 21:18:50 GMT -5
With MNKD, I feel like a mother hen sitting on her eggs waiting for them to hatch so I hope no one swapped my eggs with a hardboiled one - or else I'll be sitting pretty for years.. haha
Holding long despite a block sale at around 7.5, I'm a fool for not following through with my plans to sell immediately upon the partnership announcement. Greed smells. Lesson learned.
I hope you are all well, it's nice to check-in on this periodically!
|
|
|
|
Post by obamayoumama on Sept 9, 2014 22:03:40 GMT -5
I found it interesting when someone asked how much profit would MNKD make on a billion in sales. Matt referred back to a previous statement made some time ago. That their deal was worth about a mid 20% royalty rate. He also stated that it didn't included the milestone payments. Using my caculator, that means that AFREZZA is going to be sold with over a 70% gross margin, all in. Some sales estimates for US along is north of 3 billion a year. That equals 750 million of profit a year, not including any milestone payments. What type of market cap will MNKD have knowing that?
|
|
|
|
Post by pmikeks on Sept 10, 2014 9:50:31 GMT -5
Biotec response to my post where I felt they didn't say anything to inspire the investment community.... Who had a big expectation for MNKD today? What info was you expecting? A buyout? A partnership? We already have a partnership! News about the Cricket? (that would of been nice), New Technoshere infomation? If any new drug be it pain meds or the flu we have years of trials and the FDA red tape.I hope everyone realize Technoshere is approved for Afrezza only, Any other application has to have trials the same FDA procces.How much money and time to get Afrezza approved! Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/1284/reaction-mannkind-stanley-healthcare-conference?page=1#ixzz3CvBViqE3I expected nothing which is what we got! Based on today's PPS, investors and analyst were evidently expecting more then they heard at all the other medical conferences (they could have probably done the "presentation". Supposedly presenters go to medical conferences to encourage investment in their company but when they say the same thing time after time it evidently has a negative effect. Technoshere administering drugs other then Afrezza have to be approved by the FDA? duh who woulda guessed? |
|
|
|
Post by trenddiver on Sept 10, 2014 12:57:36 GMT -5
Couple of takesway:
1. Matt's comment that the company was "starved for cash" and just made it to the finish line was a stupid thing to say, even if true. Big Al was always there as a backup. This comment makes the company look very weak. Sometimes Matt says things that don't need to be said. What was the purpose of the statement? No one asked.
2. Hakin's comment about some ongoing discuussions with one of the major companies to help them identify and manage opportunities for Mannkind's technology. He. called it portfolio management. Wondering what up with that?
Trend
|
|
|
|
Post by alcc on Sept 10, 2014 20:05:24 GMT -5
There is a major disconnect between what's said here and what was said by SNY. The latter did not give an impression of primacy or priority to Afrezza. Didn't like the deal then; don't like it now. Distressing that this was the best deal on the table.
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Sept 10, 2014 22:41:31 GMT -5
"Greed smells. Lesson learned." Chris, I've also learned my lesson, on several occasions. It's not learning one's lesson, it's modifying one's behavior, so far, I'm flunking on modification!
|
|
|
|
Post by mannmade on Sept 10, 2014 23:04:58 GMT -5
alcc, with all due respect I don't think we know enough to judge this deal just yet... But here's what we do know... and this is what makes me comfortable with my investment as a long term investor of 3 to 5 years with Mannkind... (Much of this if not all is a rehash from the board but as collectively presented it expresses why I am here)
1.) Sanofi is #5 BP and #1 in Diabetes Globally
2.) SNY has 30,000 trained sales reps around the world and the expertise to do post marketing studies as well as acquire all gov't regulatory approvals for Europe and Japan, plus has relationships with China. Remember that with Technosphere, this is not an easy drug to copy. SNY does business in 120 countries. They also have strategic alliances with prominent companies such as Takeda.
3.) As have mentioned before, come 4th Q revenue begins to flow to mnkd ($150m upfront payments) and costs decline with transfer of most of R&D moved to Sanofi books
4.) Signed AMPH deal because of desire to ensure adequate supply of insulin, suggesting that both mnkd and sny see Afrezza as potential blockbuster
5.) Controlled launch is a good thing to make sure you get things right as you start up with a first in class drug that has no other competition on the market and likely no competition for at least 5 years if not more
6.) $950m in milestone payments, much of which should be accomplished in first two years adding to revenue, helping to front load revenue for Mannkind
7.) I like that Mnkd is positioning themselves as a technology company. They will establish a brand for the corporate identity now, that goes beyond Afrezza. It is a message to the investment community that they are serious about monetizing Technosphere which btw, mnkd holds the patents on until 2031 or so. We know they are already far along in a second generation development for Afrezza and that they have developed the Cricket for one time use.
8.) Unlike most of the people I hear bashing this stock and company as well as it's executives I do not subscribe to the theories of the "dark side." As I stated earlier about what Matt said in the recent GS CC, they take great pride in the fact that they have met every promise, date, and event that they said they would over the last two years in what has been an incredibly complicated and impossible journey over the last 14 years or so... They are proud that they do what they say they are going to do and they are not looking to over promise which I respect. This to me, is the sign of a well managed company. I am not looking to invest in Enron...
If anything, imho, most of the disappointment lately, comes not from Mannkind directly but from 1.) overly optimistic share price expectations (of which I am guilty) and 2.) Heinous short manipulation that is an egregious violation of the law and also a lack of responsibility by the SEC to enforcing the laws to protect the people of this country they are under oath to so protect. I have held this stock for 5 years and have always said I believe in the science and the science is slowly proving itself out... Ad Com, FDA, Sanofi Deal and now launch come 1st Q 2015...
9.) Should be no more dilution of shares in foreseeable future...
10.) Still 77m shares short as of two weeks ago, wish we knew current numbers, but today was a great day to buy if you had the powder. A gift from the shorts as I mentioned in a previous post a week or so ago...
11.) I expect with revenue numbers and a better P&L starting 4th Q the institutions will begin to take a more serious look and with their ramped up investment we may just get the mythical short squeeze that I have heard about but never participated in...
12.) As have stated before, even if U300/Toujeo manages to replace Lantus where does future sanofi growth come from both short term and ing term? That would be Afrezza in my mind... SNY has no competing product (except for a very low selling prandial) and so they will push Afrezza very hard as they grow the launch and ramp up production. Also I would look for them to aggressively seek expanded label.
For these reasons and more I am very confident in the projections of both Hammer and OOG. And for that i am more than willing to wait a few years and continue to accumulate as I can. To me this is a great deal as I am able to accumulate much more than I had expected i would since the price has stayed down. Now I might have wished for the price to be higher by now but every situation in investing has it's trade-offs and ways to make money so now instead of selling I am accumulating for larger profits down the road... GLTA!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Sept 10, 2014 23:41:36 GMT -5
"but today was a great day to buy if you had the powder." Right, Mannmade, you really had to have the powder to buy today, and I'm not talking technosphere powder!
|
|
|
|
Post by EveningOfTheDay on Sept 11, 2014 5:31:41 GMT -5
10.) Still 77m shares short as of two weeks ago, wish we knew current numbers, but today was a great day to buy if you had the powder. A gift from the shorts as I mentioned in a previous post a week or so ago... Mannmade, the latest numbers for short interest are out. 74,067,605 shares still short. Some of those big blocks we saw last week must have been covering. Maybe some of the smarter HF are seeing the writing on the wall. |
|
|
|
Post by mannmade on Sept 11, 2014 9:37:09 GMT -5
"but today was a great day to buy if you had the powder." Right, Mannmade, you really had to have the powder to buy today, and I'm not talking technosphere powder! LOL!!! Baba you make me laugh... Good thing I have a bit of both kinds...  Be well my friend... And thanks for the correction EOD... |
|
|
|
Post by gamblerjag on Sept 11, 2014 10:20:00 GMT -5
curious.. do we know why short interest is so high after MNKD has met all expectations over the last 18 months. After such a deal with SNY why are people betting against SNY/Mnkd.. Has anyone shorting the stock gave a logial answer to that? Is it because they think SNY will not market to Afrezza's advantage.. are they just manipulating the smaller investor? Even if one doesn't like the 65/35 which it seems more people are seeing isn't a bad deal........ is that the reason? it still can't be the minimum 150 million upfront payment? anyone ? thanks. |
|
|
|
Post by bradleysbest on Sept 11, 2014 10:33:01 GMT -5
When does MNKD receive the 1st payment of 150 million?
|
|
|
|
Post by rak5555 on Sept 11, 2014 12:16:13 GMT -5
Not sure of all the formalities, but certainly the HSR needs to be cleared prior to distribution of $150
|
|
Be well my friend...
