Reaction to MannKind at Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference

[seanismorris]

I'm interested to hear more about Afrezza 2.0 probably in 2015.

I've speculated that Mannkind has been working on the successor to Afrezza for some time.  When you think about how long FDA approval has taken, we can expect some very significant improvements have been made.  My thought is the cough will be reduced in ver. 2.0, perhaps by significantly reducing the amount of powder needed.  From a financial perspective, the current facility will have significantly increase dose production (just like the 12 unit cartridge) and increase margins.  We might have a new version ready in two to three years after launch.  Some of the countries Mannkind is looking to get approval in may never see Afrezza but Afrezza 2.0. Decreases costs, and lower pricing will be important in some country's for high adoption; I'm thinking places like India and China.

 

[babaoriley]

Didn't realize there was another thread going, I'm sure my question will be answered there.  Well, went there and nothing new posted, so I'll ask here, any word on the launch of Afrezza 1.0?

[biotec]

Sounds like 1st Qrt. I liked the sound of the CC. Some good info. Well still be trading sideways for awhile.

[seanismorris]

We don't really have anything new about the timing of the launch.  But, Sanofi is looks to be aggressive in their marketing efforts. And, while Mannkind can't give out sales figure estimates, Sanofi pushed Mannkind to make the very large insulin supply agreement, projecting pretty aggressive adoption (my read into it).

[bradleysbest]

Matt & Hakan sound real confident about the partnership deal, November production in Danbury, 1st qtr launch, entering Japan, & the future technologies of Technosphere! I am VERY confident but know the shorts will still be a factor in share price......

[seanismorris]

Mannkind (it sounds like) has already worked with different parties creating Technosphere formulations...  We might see a partner announcement soon, but soon probably means after Afrezzas launch.  Some companies may be looking to make a news splash riding Sanofi's marking effort.  But, it's sounds like everything is in very early stages. I would be surprised if Afrezza 2.0 starts clinical trials before any other effort gets that far.  Pain and migraines remains the main target for Mannkind, I expect something along thous lines for the first Technosphere partnership.

[seanismorris]

Also, interesting was the discussion of a combo treatment, Afrezza plus something else.  But, their a dozens of potential combos.  Sanofi may be interested in parring one of their pill diabetes meds (mealtime) with Afrezza.  Probably, something to lower a1c further (than Afrezza a lone).

[seanismorris]

bradleysbest,

I wouldn't project a spike in MNKD near term, or something to scare away the shorts.  But, MNKD longs should be very comfortable with their investment.  People expecting/hoping for a quick 10x return should be gone now, so doubles and triple in stock price is very doable in 3 years.

Shorts were right about the sell the news on the Partnership announcement but they are wrong about Afrezza and Mannkind.  I'd like MNKD to remain above the 200 day for the other investors (so people don't panic) but for my time frame it doesn't matter.  I've repositioned my portfolio for another buying opportunity but I don't expect to get it.  Last buy was at 7$.

[Deleted]

Sept 9, 2014 13:09:43 GMT -5 seanismorris said:

bradleysbest,

"" .........I'd like MNKD to remain above the 200 day for the other investors (so people don't panic) but for my time frame it doesn't matter......"

It is already well below the Exp 200 DMA and has been for some time.

[pmikeks]

I'd say 3-5 years down the road we will be happy with our investment. Not real sure why they even presented at Morgan Stanley unless they were obligated in some way. Between 'we don't have the answer to that right now' and 'it's in the early stages' they really didn't say much that inspired the investment community. When there is an expectation and they do what they seem to always do (not provide any real information) it hurts the stock price.

[dreamboatcruise]

The Lizard Fund's two largest holdings are MNKD and AAPL.  A big day for both, and they're both down

[babaoriley]

Lizard, that's the way it's been for me for too darn long now!! My stocks tend to go down in inverse proportion to how good the news sounds to retail investors! LOL!

[biotec]

Sept 9, 2014 14:11:56 GMT -5 pmikeks said:

I'd say 3-5 years down the road we will be happy with our investment. Not real sure why they even presented at Morgan Stanley unless they were obligated in some way. Between 'we don't have the answer to that right now' and 'it's in the early stages' they really didn't say much that inspired the investment community. When there is an expectation and they do what they seem to always do (not provide any real information) it hurts the stock price.

Who had a big expectation for MNKD today? What info was you expecting? A buyout? A partnership? We already have a partnership! News about the Cricket? (that would of been nice), New Technoshere infomation? If any new drug be it pain meds or the flu we have years of trials and the FDA red tape.I hope everyone realize Technoshere is approved for Afrezza only, Any other application has to have trials the same FDA procces.How much money and time to get Afrezza approved!

[biotec]

Sept 9, 2014 13:09:43 GMT -5 seanismorris said:

bradleysbest,

I wouldn't project a spike in MNKD near term, or something to scare away the shorts.  But, MNKD longs should be very comfortable with their investment.  People expecting/hoping for a quick 10x return should be gone now, so doubles and triple in stock price is very doable in 3 years.

Shorts were right about the sell the news on the Partnership announcement but they are wrong about Afrezza and Mannkind.  I'd like MNKD to remain above the 200 day for the other investors (so people don't panic) but for my time frame it doesn't matter.  I've repositioned my portfolio for another buying opportunity but I don't expect to get it.  Last buy was at 7$.

No one has a clue what the future will hold. So doubles or triples in 3 years is a say 80 to 100% return every year.I dont look at it that way.I try to beat the S@P. And thats hard to do. Sales will tell the future , Nothing else. We need the sales for the pipeline, Bad sales dead money, Great sales maybe 100% a year. Well see.

[dreamboatcruise]

From transcript:

And then the big market after that and they’ve talked about this a lot too. We certainly have as well, because we view this sort of the big part all at the end of the rainbow, will be those diabetics who are not yet on in insulin, because we know people, we just heavily going on insulin, it’s kind of treatment of last resort for most of them, there is lot of stigma associated with it and it’s hard to get them do at all, when they do it, it’s hard to get them to stay on it.



Offering an attractive alternative in a non-injected insulin form with some daily advantage is the half, I think, this would have a lot of benefits to people generally. We now going on insulin earlier for better outcomes for patients and helps them avoid some of the long-term complications of diabetics.



So if we can get any piece of that market, I think, it will not only beneficial for us from sale perspective obviously, but it will really have a lot of benefits for the population as a whole and we do see those very difficult outcomes.



And so that last group by the way is much larger than either of the other two groups, so wouldn’t take very much, so that’s have a pretty significant amount of sales. There is somewhere around about 4.5 million in the first group the current prandial insulin users and a couple of million in the basal-only group, but the last group in excess of 15 million and this is just in the U.S. So it’s a huge market opportunity.

This was the discussion of the third group of potential patients.  It was after the discussion of the second group... adding Afrezza to patients on basal but not prandial.  Does anyone else read this as specifically discussing the use of Afrezza as first line instead of basal?  Would they talk about this if SNY weren't on board to market it?  Isn't this important that when asked they included this?