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Post by mannmade on Sept 11, 2014 10:07:29 GMT -5
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Post by cybergym66 on Sept 11, 2014 10:10:45 GMT -5
Sorry...but probably not. I've been hearing about a possible SS since Jan! Why should the shorts start running for the doors? All the binary events are over and the stock dropped like a Turd. We all need to chill and wait for sales...
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Post by mannmade on Sept 11, 2014 10:16:19 GMT -5
Was actually being a bit sarcastic as have always referred to a possible short squeeze as finding a white whale (Moby Dick) or a Blue Lobster... possible but not likely... I actually think given the most recent short report and the recent share price decline etc that there is an orderly exit taking place to a certain degree and is likely to continue as such through at least November when commercial production is slated to begin...
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Post by cybergym66 on Sept 11, 2014 10:33:29 GMT -5
Was actually being a bit sarcastic as have always referred to a possible short squeeze as finding a white whale (Moby Dick) or a Blue Lobster... possible but not likely... I actually think given the most recent short report and the recent share price decline etc that there is an orderly exit taking place to a certain degree and is likely to continue as such through at least November when commercial production is slated to begin... OK, sorry...after the drop in price from over $11 the beginning of July I've been avoiding any thinking/hope of such an event happening. Realistically, this is a comatose stock until 1st Qtr 2015. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Sept 11, 2014 10:45:13 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts on the high short interest, keep in mind there is a cost to borrow shares and any hedges via options also costs as volatility comes in and time premium evaporates. IMO the one's that have made the most on this stock are the MM's that make the market for options in this underlying and have consistently captured the premiums on strikes with the highest open interests both calls and puts for that matter. The most pain has been for the longs and shorts obviously depending on the extent at which both have sat with their respective positions. What the author of the SA article is basically saying is that currently with the historically high amount of SI coupled with the sequence of events that have taken place and the drop in daily volume they believe the chances of a short squeeze have improved. Shorts in biotechs depend heavily on dilutions because of the lack of earnings and high costs associated with R&D, in MNKD's case those factors have diminished with the partnership. The LAST hope of the shorts (unimpressive sales) is really the only remaining hat they have to hang onto and if and when that is removed then the odds of that proverbial squeeze increase greatly. Then there is always the possibility of the white swan event as well which catches them totally off guard  |
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Post by bradleysbest on Sept 11, 2014 11:07:16 GMT -5
White Swan.... I am down with that!
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Post by cybergym66 on Sept 11, 2014 11:12:30 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts on the high short interest, keep in mind there is a cost to borrow shares and any hedges via options also costs as volatility comes in and time premium evaporates. IMO the one's that have made the most on this stock are the MM's that make the market for options in this underlying and have consistently captured the premiums on strikes with the highest open interests both calls and puts for that matter. The most pain has been for the longs and shorts obviously depending on the extent at which both have sat with their respective positions. What the author of the SA article is basically saying is that currently with the historically high amount of SI coupled with the sequence of events that have taken place and the drop in daily volume they believe the chances of a short squeeze have improved. Shorts in biotechs depend heavily on dilutions because of the lack of earnings and high costs associated with R&D, in MNKD's case those factors have diminished with the partnership. The LAST hope of the shorts (unimpressive sales) is really the only remaining hat they have to hang onto and if and when that is removed then the odds of that proverbial squeeze increase greatly. Then there is always the possibility of the white swan event as well which catches them totally off guard I think MNKD and Sanofi need to provide a lot more information about the roll out before we can base our hopes on a SS due to sales. I could be wrong, but have MNKD or Sanofi even mentioned projected sales? They seem to be pretty tight lipped on this, which MIGHT cause sales number to beat analysts guesstimates. Either way, I think we're 6 + months out before getting those reported sales numbers (End of March). |
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Post by BlueCat on Sept 11, 2014 11:37:34 GMT -5
Basically, the extra-dry kindling is there, its just waiting for the match.
Moreover, like the approach - we generally think of catalyst events for upward movement. We forget that the catalysts for downward movement also exist - and have dried up quite a bit now. So, yep. Shorts either hoping that it doesn't sell, or that MNKD cannot match production demands. Not much else left, I think, since dilution now seems mostly off the table, and partnership details have been trickling out without any major downside surprises.
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Post by bighaus89 on Sept 11, 2014 13:43:49 GMT -5
Was actually being a bit sarcastic as have always referred to a possible short squeeze as finding a white whale (Moby Dick) or a Blue Lobster... possible but not likely... I actually think given the most recent short report and the recent share price decline etc that there is an orderly exit taking place to a certain degree and is likely to continue as such through at least November when commercial production is slated to begin... OK, sorry...after the drop in price from over $11 the beginning of July I've been avoiding any thinking/hope of such an event happening. Realistically, this is a comatose stock until 1st Qtr 2015. I agree with this. Unless we are given a lot more news/details on what is going on behind the scenes, there will continue to be downward pressure. Obviously we all want a short squeeze, but management is not giving out any details and I don't think they are concerned with the current levels of trading because they know they will be extremely profitable in a year's time. I'm just getting tired of making margin calls... |
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Post by mnholdem on Sept 11, 2014 21:16:24 GMT -5
The long-shot IMO is that MM initiate a short squeeze before sales projections. One or two big houses put a STRONG BUY rating with an obscene 1-yr target like $34, along with glowing analysis of strong future sales, sparking a buying spree that forces shorts to cover. The short squeeze. MMs rake in $billions, then when it tops out, it starts down all over again and continues to slide until 2015 sales figures are reported.
MMs make $billions in both directions. Long-shot? I think the big dogs could pull it off. I give this scenario a a 1:3 likelihood of happening short-term and double those odds when the licensing agreement becomes public after EOQ.
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Post by rockyp on Sept 11, 2014 22:00:58 GMT -5
Hold'em,
I Agree 100%. The big dogs can make money on the down side by creating fear and spooking longs into selling. They can do the same thing on the upside by spooking shorts into covering AND/OR by enticing bystanders into buying. With the plethora of good news and growing appreciation of the potential for MNKD, I think it is getting easier and easier to entice bystanders to get in the game, even if the shorts can't be spooked.
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Post by papihoyos on Sept 16, 2014 9:50:54 GMT -5
My biggest concern although not spoken about is if there is a manufacturing issue. imagine we have great demand and MNKD can't deliver product.
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Post by kc on Sept 16, 2014 11:28:35 GMT -5
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