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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 11, 2022 8:13:13 GMT -5
100 million is slightly less than 50 cents per share. Just keeping things in perspective. That’s a good perspective actually. Peppy’s point about -32 cents EPS becomes 10 or 15 cents EPS. FINALLY, profit! Positive FCF! And Mango’s point was another one or two of these sorts of accomplishments and we’re looking very good indeed. By your own math and using the average P/E, we can see that Mango is dead on. $20 dollars a share anyone? How about $40? Now think about what happens if that FCF is augmented with successful marketing of Afrezza. $200 dollars a share anyone? How about $400? Brother, this is what is possible. Oh for the day when it is probable. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 11, 2022 8:23:31 GMT -5
Hey Peppy - and anyone else here in the know - has there ever been any discussion about MNKD and say - biologics like Dupixent and Nucala for Eosinophilic asthma? These medications work really well - and are approved for I believe - 12 and older. But this too involves self-injection on regular basis. Wonder if there would be benefit for asthmatics to apply directly to the bronchial tissue. No idea what it would do for people taking it for, e.g. sinus polyps or eczema. Have they ever discussed this? Feasible? Injection fits perfectly so long as the injected drug can also be stable and carried on the TechnoSphere molecule. Injection for a lung disorder implies the drug works from within the bloodstream. That is exactly what TechnoSphere and the Dreamboat were designed for; delivering drugs to the bloodstream. A couple of nights ago my wife was wracked with abdominal pain because of heartburn of indeterminate cause. A strong pain medication helped her overcome the event. She’s fine now (and has been to a doctor). It bothered me that she was suffering so badly while we waited for the pill to do it’s work, and it worried me she might not be able to keep the medication in her stomach long enough. I instantly thought of TS and Dreamboat. Something that provided relief in seconds instead of most of an hour would be amazing. (I also thought smoking a bit of opium would have done the trick too but that’s obviously not easily available or a legal option.) My guess is the injections you speak of will be very similar to RAA. I can’t imagine teaching patients to do intravenous. My guess is Mannkind has dozens of possible applications and just needs a staff large enough to evaluate and test more so that applications can be developed more quickly. |
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Post by uvula on Feb 11, 2022 8:34:13 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be negative. I'm trying to be realistic.
I agree with everyone that having a positive EPS will be huge for mnkd.
Does earnings mean profit or revenue? Does the 100M in royalties include mnkd manufacturing cost or is mnkd paid for that up front? Will the royalties get us to a positive EPS?
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Post by mango on Feb 11, 2022 9:08:07 GMT -5
All the ongoing clinical trials involving Tyvaso nebulizer will translate into Tyvaso DPI. For example, the IPF and COPD clinical trials involving Tyvaso nebulizer will translate over to the Tyvaso DPI label and become additional indications of use for Tyvaso DPI.
Martine has said this multiple times already, but majority, if not all, of the new patients will be put on the DPI. Additionally, within the first handful of months post-FDA approval around 70% of current nebulizer patients will convert to DPI.
Further, we will have years of exclusivity in these new indications. We will be the only FDA approved drug for them.
Over $100M in annual royalties is extremely realistic and I believe they said we should reach that by around 2024.
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Post by boca1girl on Feb 11, 2022 9:53:36 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be negative. I'm trying to be realistic. I agree with everyone that having a positive EPS will be huge for mnkd. Does earnings mean profit or revenue? Does the 100M in royalties include mnkd manufacturing cost or is mnkd paid for that up front? Will the royalties get us to a positive EPS? Earnings mean profit. Manufacturing costs are reimbursed at 100% + small profit of 2.5% I believe. I assume they are paid quarterly or “as incurred”. Eventually royalties will get us to a positive EPS. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2022 18:22:11 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be negative. I'm trying to be realistic. I agree with everyone that having a positive EPS will be huge for mnkd. Does earnings mean profit or revenue? Does the 100M in royalties include mnkd manufacturing cost or is mnkd paid for that up front? Will the royalties get us to a positive EPS? Earnings mean profit. Manufacturing costs are reimbursed at 100% + small profit of 2.5% I believe. I assume they are paid quarterly or “as incurred”. Eventually royalties will get us to a positive EPS. Steve Bender said the Product Royalties will fall to the bottom line. The Manufacturing Revenue will be Cost plus margin. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 12, 2022 1:53:29 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be negative. I'm trying to be realistic. I agree with everyone that having a positive EPS will be huge for mnkd. Does earnings mean profit or revenue? Does the 100M in royalties include mnkd manufacturing cost or is mnkd paid for that up front? Will the royalties get us to a positive EPS? I didn’t take you as being unusually negative. (Just the normal negative.  ) Regardless, your questions are good ones I think. I would say that earnings does not necessarily mean profit, but does necessarily mean revenue. The story on Tyvaso DPI is that MNKD contracted for “low double-digit royalties” and a modest cost+ on the manufacturing, so the royalties is meat and potatoes bottom-line. And yes, given the $80M or so in revenue from Afrezza, the $100M+ from Tyvaso DPI could get us to a positive EPS. This is the pivot point. What is next? Afrezza and Tyvaso DPI will pay the bills and eek out a profit, but what comes next is the question. Everything after CFBE is gravy but I think we all want to see a 2nd molecule from UTHR, and something similar from somebody else. I think the Tyvaso DPI approval win will be huge if achieved and don’t know whether TreT will be small or large as compared in magnitude to other deals over time but if it is the average and we can get 2 more, and last and certainly not least, unlock the potential in Afrezza, the Mannkind story should indeed be “epic”. Maybe not TSLA or APPL epic, but I like that Bill McCullough apparently still thinks so.  |
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Post by akemp3000 on Feb 12, 2022 7:27:03 GMT -5
Many have believed this stock to be undervalued for a long time based on reasons ranging from market opportunities, the value of patents and the global expansion potential just to name a few. It can be argued in hindsight that it has not been undervalued, however looking forward, the projections for the pps should not be quantified using simple math, i.e. $100M equates to $.50 a share. Reason being this ignores the wall street perspective of seeing an emerging biotech that after years of struggling, a multi-billion dollar investment and finally proof of superiority, suddenly changes a company from red to green and has decent emerging pipeline potential.
IMO, we're about to see a move up that not only reflects the typical math but an entirely new perspective from many institutional and retail investors. Based on the recent poll, the average thought of 84 voters here is that the short-term pps should peak at about $6.47 after a positive FDA ruling before moving back down to some new floor. This should then be followed by a significantly bigger move up once the UTHR revenue trend can be seen. The result should be a new pps much greater than that using common evaluations. Just a thought.
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Post by boca1girl on Feb 12, 2022 9:18:21 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be negative. I'm trying to be realistic. I agree with everyone that having a positive EPS will be huge for mnkd. Does earnings mean profit or revenue? Does the 100M in royalties include mnkd manufacturing cost or is mnkd paid for that up front? Will the royalties get us to a positive EPS? I didn’t take you as being unusually negative. (Just the normal negative.  ) Regardless, your questions are good ones I think. I would say that earnings does not necessarily mean profit, but does necessarily mean revenue. The story on Tyvaso DPI is that MNKD contracted for “low double-digit royalties” and a modest cost+ on the manufacturing, so the royalties is meat and potatoes bottom-line. And yes, given the $80M or so in revenue from Afrezza, the $100M+ from Tyvaso DPI could get us to a positive EPS. This is the pivot point. What is next? Afrezza and Tyvaso DPI will pay the bills and eek out a profit, but what comes next is the question. Everything after CFBE is gravy but I think we all want to see a 2nd molecule from UTHR, and something similar from somebody else. I think the Tyvaso DPI approval win will be huge if achieved and don’t know whether TreT will be small or large as compared in magnitude to other deals over time but if it is the average and we can get 2 more, and last and certainly not least, unlock the potential in Afrezza, the Mannkind story should indeed be “epic”. Maybe not TSLA or APPL epic, but I like that Bill McCullough apparently still thinks so.  You can’t have positive earnings without having a profit. If you have negative earnings per share, you have losses, not profits. Definition of EPS: What Is Earnings Per Share (EPS)? Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as a company's profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. The resulting number serves as an indicator of a company's profitability. It is common for a company to report EPS that is adjusted for extraordinary items and potential share dilution. The higher a company's EPS, the more profitable it is considered to be. KEY TAKEAWAYS Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the number of common shares it has outstanding. EPS indicates how much money a company makes for each share of its stock and is a widely used metric for estimating corporate value. A higher EPS indicates greater value because investors will pay more for a company's shares if they think the company has higher profits relative to its share price. EPS can be arrived at in several forms, such as excluding extraordinary items or discontinued operations, or on a diluted basis. |
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Post by peppy on Feb 12, 2022 20:05:06 GMT -5
All the ongoing clinical trials involving Tyvaso nebulizer will translate into Tyvaso DPI. For example, the IPF and COPD clinical trials involving Tyvaso nebulizer will translate over to the Tyvaso DPI label and become additional indications of use for Tyvaso DPI.Martine has said this multiple times already, but majority, if not all, of the new patients will be put on the DPI. Additionally, within the first handful of months post-FDA approval around 70% of current nebulizer patients will convert to DPI. Further, we will have years of exclusivity in these new indications. We will be the only FDA approved drug for them. Over $100M in annual royalties is extremely realistic and I believe they said we should reach that by around 2024. Thank you for that information. An acquaintance has colon cancer of the peritoneum. The choices were chemo therapy or immune therapy. The monoclonal antibody is KEYTRUDA. www.merck.com/product/usa/pi_circulars/k/keytruda/keytruda_pi.pdfTo your point. The indications for Keytruda. - Melanoma - Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer (HNSCC) - Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma (cHL) - Primary Mediastinal Large B-Cell Lymphoma (PMBCL) - Urothelial Carcinoma - Microsatellite Instability-High or Mismatch Repair Deficient Cancer - Microsatellite Instability-High or Mismatch Repair Deficient Colorectal Cancer (CRC) - Gastric Cancer - Esophageal Cancer - Cervical Cancer - Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) - Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MCC) - Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) - Endometrial Carcinoma - Tumor Mutational Burden-High (TMB-H) Cancer - Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (cSCC) - Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) *Martine knows what she is doing. * Looks like if Merck was MNKD big daddy, Merck could run the clinical trial to get afrezza approved for Alzheimers, sheeze.  |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 13, 2022 10:12:47 GMT -5
I didn’t take you as being unusually negative. (Just the normal negative. ) Regardless, your questions are good ones I think. I would say that earnings does not necessarily mean profit, but does necessarily mean revenue. The story on Tyvaso DPI is that MNKD contracted for “low double-digit royalties” and a modest cost+ on the manufacturing, so the royalties is meat and potatoes bottom-line. And yes, given the $80M or so in revenue from Afrezza, the $100M+ from Tyvaso DPI could get us to a positive EPS. This is the pivot point. What is next? Afrezza and Tyvaso DPI will pay the bills and eek out a profit, but what comes next is the question. Everything after CFBE is gravy but I think we all want to see a 2nd molecule from UTHR, and something similar from somebody else. I think the Tyvaso DPI approval win will be huge if achieved and don’t know whether TreT will be small or large as compared in magnitude to other deals over time but if it is the average and we can get 2 more, and last and certainly not least, unlock the potential in Afrezza, the Mannkind story should indeed be “epic”. Maybe not TSLA or APPL epic, but I like that Bill McCullough apparently still thinks so. You can’t have positive earnings without having a profit. If you have negative earnings per share, you have losses, not profits. Definition of EPS: What Is Earnings Per Share (EPS)? Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as a company's profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. The resulting number serves as an indicator of a company's profitability. It is common for a company to report EPS that is adjusted for extraordinary items and potential share dilution. The higher a company's EPS, the more profitable it is considered to be. KEY TAKEAWAYS Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the number of common shares it has outstanding. EPS indicates how much money a company makes for each share of its stock and is a widely used metric for estimating corporate value. A higher EPS indicates greater value because investors will pay more for a company's shares if they think the company has higher profits relative to its share price. EPS can be arrived at in several forms, such as excluding extraordinary items or discontinued operations, or on a diluted basis. bocagirl you described EPS the way I was taught it. But, as one of Peppy’s recent posts show, analysts (and pontificators) do calculate negative EPS. How can that be if EPS necessarily only means profit? I haven’t looked at the Investopedia definition of EPS recently, but my memory is they waffled too. My point was that it is fair to say revenue is earnings, but it isn’t necessarily enough earnings to be profitable. Think of it like your checkbook. You may be a wage earner, and have money coming in, but your bills may be greater than your wages, and therefore you are losing money. It doesn’t mean you aren’t earning money; just not enough to meet your expenses. Regardless, it is the classic definition of EPS (i.e., the measure of profit per share) that you and I learned that is used as the input to the ever-so-important P/E ratio which is the rule of thumb used for estimating what the PPS of a stock should be, absent any other inputs or considerations. i.e., the estimate of PPS based on operational performance. I’m fine with the classic definition but recognize not everyone sticks to it. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 10:38:51 GMT -5
All the ongoing clinical trials involving Tyvaso nebulizer will translate into Tyvaso DPI. For example, the IPF and COPD clinical trials involving Tyvaso nebulizer will translate over to the Tyvaso DPI label and become additional indications of use for Tyvaso DPI.Martine has said this multiple times already, but majority, if not all, of the new patients will be put on the DPI. Additionally, within the first handful of months post-FDA approval around 70% of current nebulizer patients will convert to DPI. Further, we will have years of exclusivity in these new indications. We will be the only FDA approved drug for them. Over $100M in annual royalties is extremely realistic and I believe they said we should reach that by around 2024. Thank you for that information. An acquaintance has colon cancer of the peritoneum. The choices were chemo therapy or immune therapy. The monoclonal antibody is KEYTRUDA. www.merck.com/product/usa/pi_circulars/k/keytruda/keytruda_pi.pdfTo your point. The indications for Keytruda. - Melanoma - Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer (HNSCC) - Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma (cHL) - Primary Mediastinal Large B-Cell Lymphoma (PMBCL) - Urothelial Carcinoma - Microsatellite Instability-High or Mismatch Repair Deficient Cancer - Microsatellite Instability-High or Mismatch Repair Deficient Colorectal Cancer (CRC) - Gastric Cancer - Esophageal Cancer - Cervical Cancer - Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) - Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MCC) - Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) - Endometrial Carcinoma - Tumor Mutational Burden-High (TMB-H) Cancer - Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (cSCC) - Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) *Martine knows what she is doing. * Looks like if Merck was MNKD big daddy, Merck could run the clinical trial to get afrezza approved for Alzheimers, sheeze. I believe there are active studies with INHALED INSULIN and ALZHEIMER Patients and results show Inhaled Insulin could prevent it. |
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Post by boca1girl on Feb 13, 2022 11:36:28 GMT -5
You can’t have positive earnings without having a profit. If you have negative earnings per share, you have losses, not profits. Definition of EPS: What Is Earnings Per Share (EPS)? Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as a company's profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. The resulting number serves as an indicator of a company's profitability. It is common for a company to report EPS that is adjusted for extraordinary items and potential share dilution. The higher a company's EPS, the more profitable it is considered to be. KEY TAKEAWAYS Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the number of common shares it has outstanding. EPS indicates how much money a company makes for each share of its stock and is a widely used metric for estimating corporate value. A higher EPS indicates greater value because investors will pay more for a company's shares if they think the company has higher profits relative to its share price. EPS can be arrived at in several forms, such as excluding extraordinary items or discontinued operations, or on a diluted basis. bocagirl you described EPS the way I was taught it. But, as one of Peppy’s recent posts show, analysts (and pontificators) do calculate negative EPS. How can that be if EPS necessarily only means profit? I haven’t looked at the Investopedia definition of EPS recently, but my memory is they waffled too. My point was that it is fair to say revenue is earnings, but it isn’t necessarily enough earnings to be profitable. Think of it like your checkbook. You may be a wage earner, and have money coming in, but your bills may be greater than your wages, and therefore you are losing money. It doesn’t mean you aren’t earning money; just not enough to meet your expenses. Regardless, it is the classic definition of EPS (i.e., the measure of profit per share) that you and I learned that is used as the input to the ever-so-important P/E ratio which is the rule of thumb used for estimating what the PPS of a stock should be, absent any other inputs or considerations. i.e., the estimate of PPS based on operational performance. I’m fine with the classic definition but recognize not everyone sticks to it. The point is, if the word “negative” or “-“ is missing from a financial report regarding earnings, then the earnings are positive and the company has a profit. Basic financial concept. Enough said, I won’t comment again. (Maybe you are confusing the concept of being cash flow positive with profitability.) |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2022 12:00:27 GMT -5
All the ongoing clinical trials involving Tyvaso nebulizer will translate into Tyvaso DPI. For example, the IPF and COPD clinical trials involving Tyvaso nebulizer will translate over to the Tyvaso DPI label and become additional indications of use for Tyvaso DPI.Martine has said this multiple times already, but majority, if not all, of the new patients will be put on the DPI. Additionally, within the first handful of months post-FDA approval around 70% of current nebulizer patients will convert to DPI. Further, we will have years of exclusivity in these new indications. We will be the only FDA approved drug for them. Over $100M in annual royalties is extremely realistic and I believe they said we should reach that by around 2024. Thank you for that information. An acquaintance has colon cancer of the peritoneum. The choices were chemo therapy or immune therapy. The monoclonal antibody is KEYTRUDA. www.merck.com/product/usa/pi_circulars/k/keytruda/keytruda_pi.pdfTo your point. The indications for Keytruda. - Melanoma - Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer (HNSCC) - Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma (cHL) - Primary Mediastinal Large B-Cell Lymphoma (PMBCL) - Urothelial Carcinoma - Microsatellite Instability-High or Mismatch Repair Deficient Cancer - Microsatellite Instability-High or Mismatch Repair Deficient Colorectal Cancer (CRC) - Gastric Cancer - Esophageal Cancer - Cervical Cancer - Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) - Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MCC) - Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) - Endometrial Carcinoma - Tumor Mutational Burden-High (TMB-H) Cancer - Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (cSCC) - Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) *Martine knows what she is doing. * Looks like if Merck was MNKD big daddy, Merck could run the clinical trial to get afrezza approved for Alzheimers, sheeze. HUMIRA is another FRANCHISE Drug with multiple indications. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 13, 2022 12:20:23 GMT -5
Thank you for that information. An acquaintance has colon cancer of the peritoneum. The choices were chemo therapy or immune therapy. The monoclonal antibody is KEYTRUDA. www.merck.com/product/usa/pi_circulars/k/keytruda/keytruda_pi.pdfTo your point. The indications for Keytruda. - Melanoma - Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer (HNSCC) - Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma (cHL) - Primary Mediastinal Large B-Cell Lymphoma (PMBCL) - Urothelial Carcinoma - Microsatellite Instability-High or Mismatch Repair Deficient Cancer - Microsatellite Instability-High or Mismatch Repair Deficient Colorectal Cancer (CRC) - Gastric Cancer - Esophageal Cancer - Cervical Cancer - Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) - Merkel Cell Carcinoma (MCC) - Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) - Endometrial Carcinoma - Tumor Mutational Burden-High (TMB-H) Cancer - Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (cSCC) - Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) *Martine knows what she is doing. * Looks like if Merck was MNKD big daddy, Merck could run the clinical trial to get afrezza approved for Alzheimers, sheeze. I believe there are active studies with INHALED INSULIN and ALZHEIMER Patients and results show Inhaled Insulin could prevent it. A number of years ago I contacted Dr. Craft about getting my father-in-law into her study. At the time they were spraying insulin up the nostrils. I suggested to her to try afrezza. He was not accepted into the study and I haven't been following her recent work. mimahealth.com/insulin-inhaling-promising-treatment-memory-loss/#:~:text=Early%20research%20suggested%20that%20when,disease%20or%20mild%20cognitive%20impairment. I do find it odd that the picture in this article is showing the old medtone inhaler. I don't know if they ever did any studies using afrezza but taking it through the mouth with the old medtone is probably not going to work as well as a rolled up dollar bill through the nose. |
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) Regardless, your questions are good ones I think. I would say that earnings does not necessarily mean profit, but does necessarily mean revenue. The story on Tyvaso DPI is that MNKD contracted for “low double-digit royalties” and a modest cost+ on the manufacturing, so the royalties is meat and potatoes bottom-line. And yes, given the $80M or so in revenue from Afrezza, the $100M+ from Tyvaso DPI could get us to a positive EPS.
) Regardless, your questions are good ones I think. I would say that earnings does not necessarily mean profit, but does necessarily mean revenue. The story on Tyvaso DPI is that MNKD contracted for “low double-digit royalties” and a modest cost+ on the manufacturing, so the royalties is meat and potatoes bottom-line. And yes, given the $80M or so in revenue from Afrezza, the $100M+ from Tyvaso DPI could get us to a positive EPS.
