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Post by Clement on May 24, 2022 10:31:54 GMT -5
Best Guess as to Short Term pps Movement if UTHR is Approved in Q1
Little...pps stays below $5
4th place
11 votes (13.10%)
Some...pps peaks between $5 and $6
1st place
26 votes (30.95%)
Nice...pps peaks between $6 an $8
2nd place
25 votes (29.76%)
Excellent...pps hits above $8
3rd place
22 votes (26.19%)
There have been 84 votes by 84 voters.
This poll has expired or has been locked.
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Post by Clement on May 24, 2022 10:36:27 GMT -5
Post by akemp3000 on Feb 5, 2022 at 11:05am There are countless mathematical ways to interpret this poll incorrectly but just for fun, I assigned a hard number to each of the four options. I used the following: $4.50 / 5.50 / 7.00 / 8.00. Doing so extrapolates to a current consensus peak pps of $6.38. The poll remains open for a week so this may change. That said, wouldn't it be something if $6.38 turned out to be close. It would prove once and for all the brilliance of the collective minds on this board...at least to forecast the future. Of course, a better result would be if the peak price is $8 or above in which case only the 12 who voted such would be proven brilliant. If that happens, no doubt 50 will likely claim they voted such. Stay tuned...  |
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Post by cretin11 on May 24, 2022 10:55:59 GMT -5
Thanks for the recap. Some suspected the approval was seen as nearly certain, and thus mostly baked into share price. They turned out to be correct. Just a huge relief that it happened, gonna take longer to hit that $8 mark than most predicted (based upon that poll), but we are on track to get there if we simply perform now, i.e. keep the momentum by announcing a new molecule and/or partnership, and get the bb warning off Afrezza.
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Post by akemp3000 on May 24, 2022 12:17:52 GMT -5
The poll was simply intended to get a pulse on board sentiment and was something fun to do while while we waited. Clarification of "short term movement" should have been made. It never meant the day after approval so it's way too early to interpret vote results. We need to see what happens to the pps in the next couple of weeks...before boredom sets in and a new floor is established. I'd like to see the pps in about two weeks after this event is absorbed by the street and hopefully ratings move up from several analysts. I don't for a second believe the price has been baked in. Following the FDA ruling yesterday, there's no logic that says this company should continue to be traded in the penny stock range (under $5) and I suspect we'll see that very soon. How much is the question? Stay tuned and good luck to all.
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Post by tarheelblue004 on May 24, 2022 13:45:05 GMT -5
Agreed. Afrezza taught me the hard way the difference between potential and sales. We’re still in an in-between phase where Tyvaso DPI has been approved but isn’t yet selling. So the SP is languishing and may continue to until we see the sales. Then I expect the share price to adjust to reflect how quick the actual uptake is. It will go far higher if uptake is rapid, medium higher if uptake is methodological, and even lower if uptake is low (like the early years of Afrezza). The middle scenario could still be 50%+ upside, while the best case scenario could easily send us to double-digits. Mike mentioned similar scenario-planning on todays call (minus the price targets): patient switch over could take 6-12 months or it could take 2-3 years, depending on UTHR’s strategy. I think these scenarios would reflect different share prices as written above.
We have a new dark horse now though that could really shake things up on the share price prediction front. Is our beloved Afrezza starting to rise from the dead? Could Afrezza growth really start to accelerate meaningfully? I’m not going to lie, last week’s script numbers got me jazzed!
If we see real acceleration in Afrezza sales to accompany medium to high Tyvaso DPI uptake, watch out below! I’m back to dreaming; let’s see what happens the next few Fridays!
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Post by cretin11 on May 24, 2022 14:04:14 GMT -5
The poll was simply intended to get a pulse on board sentiment and was something fun to do while while we waited. Clarification of "short term movement" should have been made. It never meant the day after approval so it's way too early to interpret vote results. We need to see what happens to the pps in the next couple of weeks...before boredom sets in and a new floor is established. I'd like to see the pps in about two weeks after this event is absorbed by the street and hopefully ratings move up from several analysts. I don't for a second believe the price has been baked in. Following the FDA ruling yesterday, there's no logic that says this company should continue to be traded in the penny stock range (under $5) and I suspect we'll see that very soon. How much is the question? Stay tuned and good luck to all. Agreed, the poll was a fun thing while we waited for approval, and yes perhaps “short term” could’ve been defined more precisely. I’d say most everyone answered with what they expected the price to do upon the “pop” from approval. But for argument’s sake (and for fun!), let’s see it play out over the next week or so as you suggest, as this good news is digested by everyone. I still say the news was mostly baked in and am not expecting us to break out of penny stock range in the next week. And once again it should go without saying (broken record here), hope to be totally wrong about that. |
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Post by sportsrancho on May 25, 2022 7:40:34 GMT -5
The market held everything down. #NASDAQ …Depending on the market itself… I think we keep going up especially if we get new upgrades, but then we’re gonna level off till revenue. IMO (. Launches get shorted )
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Post by akemp3000 on May 25, 2022 8:23:40 GMT -5
I agree. That was kind of the burning question intended with the poll. Where do we level off after approval and until revenue? Hopefully, a couple of nice upgrades should get us headed in the right direction and provide more good discussions.
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Post by cretin11 on May 25, 2022 8:32:41 GMT -5
I hope you’re both right, that would mean we have a period (one to two weeks you think?) of movement up from here before we level off. I’d be pleasantly surprised with that, especially if it takes us up to or above $5.
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 25, 2022 9:08:49 GMT -5
Generous to a fault.
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Post by sr71 on May 25, 2022 11:10:00 GMT -5
I hope you’re both right, that would mean we have a period (one to two weeks you think?) of movement up from here before we level off. I’d be pleasantly surprised with that, especially if it takes us up to or above $5. Agreed, but IMHO the powers that be will pin it between $4.50 - $5.00 for the June Calls. |
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Jun 3, 2022 10:13:34 GMT -5
Agreed. Afrezza taught me the hard way the difference between potential and sales. We’re still in an in-between phase where Tyvaso DPI has been approved but isn’t yet selling. So the SP is languishing and may continue to until we see the sales. Then I expect the share price to adjust to reflect how quick the actual uptake is. It will go far higher if uptake is rapid, medium higher if uptake is methodological, and even lower if uptake is low (like the early years of Afrezza). The middle scenario could still be 50%+ upside, while the best case scenario could easily send us to double-digits. Mike mentioned similar scenario-planning on todays call (minus the price targets): patient switch over could take 6-12 months or it could take 2-3 years, depending on UTHR’s strategy. I think these scenarios would reflect different share prices as written above. We have a new dark horse now though that could really shake things up on the share price prediction front. Is our beloved Afrezza starting to rise from the dead? Could Afrezza growth really start to accelerate meaningfully? I’m not going to lie, last week’s script numbers got me jazzed! If we see real acceleration in Afrezza sales to accompany medium to high Tyvaso DPI uptake, watch out below! I’m back to dreaming; let’s see what happens the next few Fridays! Beautiful to see our RATE of Sympthony-reported Afrezza revenue growth increasing!! Four weeks ago Sympthony-reported Afrezza revenue grew 5.4% over the previous four weeks. Today's numbers show 8.9% revenue growth over the previous four weeks. It is a fact that over the past 12 weeks, the rate of Afrezza revenue growth has been meaningfully increasing. Let's see how the next few weeks look. I'm back to being excited about the Friday script numbers - it has been years since I could say that  |
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Post by alethea on Jun 3, 2022 10:49:29 GMT -5
Agreed. Afrezza taught me the hard way the difference between potential and sales. We’re still in an in-between phase where Tyvaso DPI has been approved but isn’t yet selling. So the SP is languishing and may continue to until we see the sales. Then I expect the share price to adjust to reflect how quick the actual uptake is. It will go far higher if uptake is rapid, medium higher if uptake is methodological, and even lower if uptake is low (like the early years of Afrezza). The middle scenario could still be 50%+ upside, while the best case scenario could easily send us to double-digits. Mike mentioned similar scenario-planning on todays call (minus the price targets): patient switch over could take 6-12 months or it could take 2-3 years, depending on UTHR’s strategy. I think these scenarios would reflect different share prices as written above. We have a new dark horse now though that could really shake things up on the share price prediction front. Is our beloved Afrezza starting to rise from the dead? Could Afrezza growth really start to accelerate meaningfully? I’m not going to lie, last week’s script numbers got me jazzed! If we see real acceleration in Afrezza sales to accompany medium to high Tyvaso DPI uptake, watch out below! I’m back to dreaming; let’s see what happens the next few Fridays! Beautiful to see our RATE of Sympthony-reported Afrezza revenue growth increasing!! Four weeks ago Sympthony-reported Afrezza revenue grew 5.4% over the previous four weeks. Today's numbers show 8.9% revenue growth over the previous four weeks. It is a fact that over the past 12 weeks, the rate of Afrezza revenue growth has been meaningfully increasing. Let's see how the next few weeks look. I'm back to being excited about the Friday script numbers - it has been years since I could say that  Yes, yes, yes, YES! |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Jun 3, 2022 12:22:37 GMT -5
Haha, Alethea, it sounds funny reading that excited response coming from that smug face.  Maybe you will change your avatar someday that to a more smiley face? Hey, maybe we all will |
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Post by alethea on Jun 3, 2022 12:34:46 GMT -5
That look is supposed to be Grim Determination in the face of all the Opposition. I'll seek technical help for making the change to a broad smile when we break $5. |
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