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Post by jjacobs122 on Jun 14, 2022 7:31:03 GMT -5
Does anyone know roughly what date we will see actual sales revenue numbers for Tyvaso DPI?
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 73
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Post by rebby on Jun 14, 2022 7:36:51 GMT -5
Does anyone know roughly what date we will see actual sales revenue numbers for Tyvaso DPI? I’d guess Aug 3rd |
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Post by jjacobs122 on Jun 14, 2022 7:37:52 GMT -5
Shouldn’t the symphony script numbers also give us information regarding this?
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Post by neil36 on Jun 14, 2022 8:27:45 GMT -5
Shouldn’t the symphony script numbers also give us information regarding this? According to the Tyvaso website, it is only available through specialty pharmacies. In another thread, someone commented that specialty pharmacies do not report numbers to Symphony. The posters with access to Symphony data through Bloomberg terminals, etc., say that they cannot find anything on Tyvaso numbers. My guess is the first glimpse we get is the August 3rd UTHR earnings call, which is fifty days away. |
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Post by neil36 on Jun 14, 2022 12:33:10 GMT -5
From the Yahoo Analysts page for MNKD based upon five analysts:
Current quarter (June 2022) estimates
Low 11 cent loss
Average 9 cent loss
High 8 cent loss
Current quarter revenue estimates
Low $11.79 million
Average $15.62 million
High $17.3 million
Next quarter estimates:
Low 11 cent loss
Average 8 cent loss
High 5 cent loss
Next quarter revenue estimates
Low $17.4 million
Average $20.77 million
High $24.5 million
2023 estimates:
Low 24 cent loss
Average 10 cent loss
High 2 cent profit
2023 revenue estimates
Low $126.4 million
Average $150.2 million
High $192.6 million
Interesting (and frustrating) that the most optimistic analyst foresees $192.6 million in revenues next year, resulting in only a two cent per share profit.
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Post by akemp3000 on Jun 14, 2022 12:46:57 GMT -5
Imagine what happens if the current quarter low estimate of 11.79M transitions to the next quarter high estimate of $24.5M  |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jun 14, 2022 12:57:34 GMT -5
Why frustrating? Tyvaso DPI gets MNKD to breakeven which is great news. Other molecules are incremental adders but no 2023 revenue. Afrezza is what takes MNKD to the moon once Mike figures out how to sell it.
The T1 market is straight forward. You get the kids approved and then target them just like what was done with pumps. Over time, afrezza dominates the prandial insulin space. 2023 revenues would not be large.
To date Mike has never announced a plan for the T2 market. The last I heard the T2 market was "on hold". For the forecasts to change Mike needs to announce a believable and executable plan to capture at least some of the GLP1/SGLT market. Just 10% would be huge. The longer Mike waits the smaller capture in 2023. If a new afrezza trial is announced to jump start the T2 market don't expect 2023 revenue to be much.
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Post by neil36 on Jun 14, 2022 13:10:02 GMT -5
Why frustrating? Tyvaso DPI gets MNKD to breakeven which is great news. Other molecules are incremental adders but no 2023 revenue. Afrezza is what takes MNKD to the moon once Mike figures out how to sell it. The T1 market is straight forward. You get the kids approved and then target them just like what was done with pumps. Over time, afrezza dominates the prandial insulin space. 2023 revenues would not be large. To date Mike has never announced a plan for the T2 market. The last I heard the T2 market was "on hold". For the forecasts to change Mike needs to announce a believable and executable plan to capture at least some of the GLP1/SGLT market. Just 10% would be huge. The longer Mike waits the smaller capture in 2023. If a new afrezza trial is announced to jump start the T2 market don't expect 2023 revenue to be much. Frustrating because that is the most optimistic analyst. The 2023 consensus is for a ten cent a share loss which would mean we'd still be losing over two million dollars a month. Hopefully these models get updated sharply and expeditiously as more positive operational results are reported. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jun 14, 2022 13:30:59 GMT -5
I expect MNKD to be at least break even by the end of 2023. Regardless its heading in the right direction as long as Mike doesn't add more boat anchors like V-GO. Afrezza sales will continue to grow but not fast for the next year.
Have we wasted the last six years learning out how to sell afrezza, sure. Now that is frustrating. Why the kids trial was not done as soon as Sanofi dropped the ball is a head scratcher. For the T1s all they needed to do was follow the Medtronic pump model. Few existing T1s ever change but the kids will be the adopters.
Why MNKD did not hire the Sanofi VP for the T2 market is also a head scratcher. He had the vision for going after the GLP1/SGTL2 market and got shut down day 1 of Brandicourt.
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