2022 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call

[Clement]

Nov 4, 2022 15:32:26 GMT -5 wyattdog said:

Mannkind Corp expected to post a loss of ?9? cents a share-Earnings Preview 11/04/2022 03:34 * MannKind Corp is expected to show a rise in quarterly revenue when it reports results on November 8. * The Danbury Connecticut-based company is expected to report a 14.7% increase in revenue to $25.471 million from $22.21 million a year ago, according to the mean estimate from 5 analysts, based on Refinitiv data. * ?Refinitiv's mean analyst estimate for MannKind Corp is for a loss of 9 cents per share. * The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 5 "strong buy" or "buy," 1 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell." * The mean earnings estimate of analysts was unchanged in the last three months. ? * Wall Street's median 12-month price target for MannKind Corp is $5.75?, above? its last closing price of $3.44. Previous quarterly performance (using preferred earnings measure in US dollars). ? QUARTER STARMINESM REFINITIV ACTUAL BEAT, SURPRI ENDING ARTESTIMAT IBES MET, SE % E? ESTIMATE MISSED Jun. 30 2022 -0.10 -0.09 -0.11 Missed -17.5 Mar. 31 2022 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 Met -2 Dec. 31 2021 -0.07 -0.07 -0.11 Missed -65? Sep. 30 2021 -0.09 -0.07 -0.02 Beat 70 ??Jun. -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 Missed -25 30 2021 Mar. 31 2021 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05

Thanks, Wyatt.  I would not be surprised at 8 or 9 cents loss per share for Q3.

However, the average analyst revenue estimate of 25.47 mm is low.  I estimate the net revenue number comes in between 29 and 32 mm.  See the thread      "+58% QoQ Again?".

[JEvans]

Why is nobody acting on or referencing Tyvaso ? 

With what United Therapeutics reported this week, I would think Mannkind would be going through the roof in anticipation of milestones and profits from this alone ?  What am I missing ?

[prcgorman2]

Nov 4, 2022 16:39:03 GMT -5 JEvans said:

Why is nobody acting on or referencing Tyvaso ? 

With what United Therapeutics reported this week, I would think Mannkind would be going through the roof in anticipation of milestones and profits from this alone ?  What am I missing ?

Are you being sarcastic when you say "through the roof"?  This is anything but a bull market.  Also, can you share your estimate of "milestones and profits" that would drive such behavior?

[georgethenight2]

Those analyst`s profit forecasts have to be off the mark by 5-10m.
1. V-go
2. DPI
3. Unreported rxs, those not captured by Symphony
4. Unreported income of 24m still sits on the books.

Go go MNKD.

[Thundersnow]

Nov 4, 2022 23:48:03 GMT -5 georgethenight2 said:

Those analyst`s profit forecasts have to be off the mark by 5-10m.
1. V-go
2. DPI
3. Unreported rxs, those not captured by Symphony
4. Unreported income of 24m still sits on the books.

Go go MNKD.

OK here are my Estimates for 3Q22 Revenue:

Afrezza              $13.4M
VGO                  $  6.8M
Colab & Svcs      $  4.5M
Royalties            $    3M

Total Revs.         $27.7M

[peppy]

Nov 5, 2022 0:52:04 GMT -5 Thundersnow said:

Nov 4, 2022 23:48:03 GMT -5 georgethenight2 said:

Those analyst`s profit forecasts have to be off the mark by 5-10m.
1. V-go
2. DPI
3. Unreported rxs, those not captured by Symphony
4. Unreported income of 24m still sits on the books.

Go go MNKD.

OK here are my Estimates for 3Q22 Revenue:

Afrezza              $13.4M
VGO                  $  6.8M
Colab & Svcs      $  4.5M
Royalties            $    3M

Total Revs.         $27.7M

27.7 M total revenues + 24 M unreported income still sitting on books = 51.7 M

[akemp3000]

Can any finance accounts here share thoughts on when this unreported income might occur? 3Q, 4Q, spread out?

[letitride]

Nov 4, 2022 16:39:03 GMT -5 JEvans said:

Why is nobody acting on or referencing Tyvaso ? 

With what United Therapeutics reported this week, I would think Mannkind would be going through the roof in anticipation of milestones and profits from this alone ?  What am I missing ?

       You're not missing a thing and the volume yesterday speaks louder than words.  

[peppy]

Nov 5, 2022 9:10:01 GMT -5 akemp3000 said:

Can any finance accounts here share thoughts on when this unreported income might occur? 3Q, 4Q, spread out?

All I know is, MNKD could not recognize any UTHR dollars until approval and delivery? 

Paraphrasing Binder at the last CC the best I can remember. "The deferred payments will fall to the bottom line. "

George had posted the dollar amount, 2 posts up. 

Those analyst`s profit forecasts have to be off the mark by 5-10m.
1. V-go
2. DPI
3. Unreported rxs, those not captured by Symphony
4. Unreported income of 24m still sits on the books.

Go go MNKD.

[agedhippie]

Nov 5, 2022 9:35:12 GMT -5 letitride said:

Nov 4, 2022 16:39:03 GMT -5 JEvans said:

Why is nobody acting on or referencing Tyvaso ? 

With what United Therapeutics reported this week, I would think Mannkind would be going through the roof in anticipation of milestones and profits from this alone ?  What am I missing ?

       You're not missing a thing and the volume yesterday speaks louder than words.  

I am curious to see how this goes. There was a jump in the UTHR price after the results, and the DPI share was emphasized in the call. That jump was not reflected in the MNKD price to any significant degree. If MNKD can show that revenue feeding through in their results then I could see MNKD getting a bump similar to the UTHR rise.

I could see MNKD would become a play for traders wanting to bet on the DPI segment of the Tyvaso market with a hedge short UTHR, long MNKD. I would need to look at the UTHR results again, but if UTHR keep pushing DPI that's a workable hypothesis in my view.

[Clement]

Nov 5, 2022 9:10:01 GMT -5 akemp3000 said:

Can any finance accounts here share thoughts on when this unreported income might occur? 3Q, 4Q, spread out?

From the Q2 earnings call:
"And we deferred $4.1 million of revenue to the balance sheet in the second quarter, of which approximately half is associated with inventory that sits on our balance sheet and is expected to be sold to UT in the third quarter when we will recognize the associated deferred revenue to income. Beginning in the second quarter, we have started to recognize prior period deferred revenue for manufacturing services and expect to do so throughout the life of the manufacturing contract with UT, which runs 2031. There was a total of $29.8 million of deferred revenue associated with UT on our balance sheet as of June 30, 2022."

www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/08/10/mannkind-corporation-mnkd-q2-2022-earnings-call-tr/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article


For a Q3 estimate, I interpreted that to mean:  As of June 30, 2022, there's $29.8 million of deferred revenue on the balance sheet which someday will be recognized. From the Q2 Earnings Call, half of 4.1 million (deferred in Q2) will be recognized in Q3 and the rest over almost 10 years. Half of 4.1 = 2.0. (29.8 – 2.0)/40quarters = 0.7 per quarter. 2.0 + 0.7 = 2.7.   That is, roughly $2.7 million of previously deferred revenue will be recognized in Q3.

[peppy]

Nov 5, 2022 10:29:56 GMT -5 Clement said:

Nov 5, 2022 9:10:01 GMT -5 akemp3000 said:

Can any finance accounts here share thoughts on when this unreported income might occur? 3Q, 4Q, spread out?

From the Q2 earnings call:
"And we deferred $4.1 million of revenue to the balance sheet in the second quarter, of which approximately half is associated with inventory that sits on our balance sheet and is expected to be sold to UT in the third quarter when we will recognize the associated deferred revenue to income. Beginning in the second quarter, we have started to recognize prior period deferred revenue for manufacturing services and expect to do so throughout the life of the manufacturing contract with UT, which runs 2031. There was a total of $29.8 million of deferred revenue associated with UT on our balance sheet as of June 30, 2022."

www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/08/10/mannkind-corporation-mnkd-q2-2022-earnings-call-tr/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article


For a Q3 estimate, I interpreted that to mean:  As of June 30, 2022, there's $29.8 million of deferred revenue on the balance sheet which someday will be recognized. From the Q2 Earnings Call, half of 4.1 million (deferred in Q2) will be recognized in Q3 and the rest over almost 10 years. Half of 4.1 = 2.0. (29.8 – 2.0)/40quarters = 0.7 per quarter. 2.0 + 0.7 = 2.7.   That is, roughly $2.7 million of previously deferred revenue will be recognized in Q3.

oh.
ok. From above;

Afrezza $13.4M
VGO $ 6.8M
Colab & Svcs $ 4.5M
Royalties $ 3M

Total Revs. $27.7M Plus 2.7 million? = 30.4 M

[Thundersnow]

Nov 5, 2022 4:57:22 GMT -5 peppy said:

Nov 5, 2022 0:52:04 GMT -5 Thundersnow said:

OK here are my Estimates for 3Q22 Revenue:

Afrezza              $13.4M
VGO                  $  6.8M
Colab & Svcs      $  4.5M
Royalties            $    3M

Total Revs.         $27.7M

27.7 M total revenues + 24 M unreported income still sitting on books = 51.7 M

Are you referring to the Deferred Revenue Balance??  That sits at $29.8 Million. 

[peppy]

Nov 5, 2022 17:45:04 GMT -5 Thundersnow said:

Nov 5, 2022 4:57:22 GMT -5 peppy said:

27.7 M total revenues + 24 M unreported income still sitting on books = 51.7 M

Are you referring to the Deferred Revenue Balance??  That sits at $29.8 Million. 

yes.

[prcgorman2]

Interesting numbers. Where is MTOI (accounting expertise)? Has anybody estimated what P/L looks like using these numbers? I see the analysts expecting another quarter of smaller losses, but I don’t try to find/read/review their analysis.