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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 3, 2014 4:55:10 GMT -5
Before launch? No frigging way. Institutions always start buying just before launch. They will start buying MNKD by December at the latest. I actually believe share price will be above the 52-week high and will keep heading north. Unless we know when sales will actually start I don't think we can throw out anything more than guesses for when Institutions will start buying MNKD in earnest. Right now it's "1st Qtr" which is Jan - Mar. Since it could be the end of March given the lack of clear guidance, I doubt Institutions are in a rush and will wait this out for another 3 months or more. If SNY & MNKD actually provide marketing and sales plans then things might change. MNKD making milestones is nice, but Sales is what will move the share price. (Long Jan '15 Calls) |
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 3, 2014 6:21:54 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree. The consensus target is $10. Three firms already have buy ratings. The price "screams buy" as John Devine wrote yesterday at Investorplace. There will be more upgrade after the next earnings call. I do agree that some guidance would help but Sanofi never projects sales before launch. We will hear that commercial start up is on schedule for November and receipt of at least one milestone payment in November.
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 3, 2014 6:39:11 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree. The consensus target is $10. Three firms already have buy ratings. The price "screams buy" as John Devine wrote yesterday at Investorplace. There will be more upgrade after the next earnings call. I do agree that some guidance would help but Sanofi never projects sales before launch. We will hear that commercial start up is on schedule for November and receipt of at least one milestone payment in November. It seems that only negative price targets move the stock (i.e. the clown who before the AdCom set a price target of around $2) which caused the price to go from above $5 to below $4. We had an analyst last month give a $13 price target...stock went up around 30 cents (about $7.50) and we haven't seen $7.50 since. The way MNKD price has crashed in the last 2 months there's little reason for investors to buy due to price targets...sales and profit will only work. Commercial start up...I assume this means production. This could give the price support so it won't fall more, but not enough to push the price back up to $10. Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to see $10, but this stock has REPEATEDLY disappointed so I'm now quite skeptical when it comes to lofty projections. Unless you have some insight to what's happening away from the public, I have to give credit to those who said right after the partnership announcement that MNKD was dead money until 1st qtr 2015. $9+ sure looks great now! |
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 3, 2014 16:31:30 GMT -5
That clown got fired last week... and I will be very interested in seeing the new institution reports that typically are published within 10 days of EOQ. Institutional ownership rose around 4% last quarter, if I remember correctly.
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 3, 2014 18:13:52 GMT -5
That clown got fired last week... and I will be very interested in seeing the new institution reports that typically are published within 10 days of EOQ. Institutional ownership rose around 4% last quarter, if I remember correctly. 6 months late!!! Yes, let's see what the "smart" money is doing with MNKD. With MNKD on sale I would expect a higher ownership from the Institutions. A bigger percent increase than 4% would show us they believe in MNKD enough to buy as it tanked. |
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 3, 2014 20:23:43 GMT -5
That "smart money" also bought pre-ADCOM and continues to hold, perhaps to start accumulating MNKD shares again. You know... that kinda makes me feel a little smarter myself!
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Post by lyric14882 on Oct 5, 2014 22:02:50 GMT -5
No it was not personal to you...it was sarcastic to the point this board has become that anyone frustrated with this stock price had to be a bear in disguise.
I miss the days that we were excited over approval, partnership, the future etc.
If we ever post a "hey, this is not quite what I expected after all of these hurdles", then we some how hate the stock and are actually bears.
Mannkind is the red headed step child of wall street and I actually do not know why. I apologize for being negative.
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Post by gamblerjag on Oct 5, 2014 22:06:44 GMT -5
I'm a redhead and was adopted.. and greatly offended!!!!  MNKD will be just fine. |
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 5, 2014 22:15:00 GMT -5
You were being negative? I didn't catch that. I argue with myself all the time, pros & cons kinda stuff, so I guess I just look at the arguments as personal opinion but not anything personal. I made state championships in debate back in the 70's, so I use the term "argument" in context of a debate. Much like the Supreme Court hears oral arguments. I use the word instinctively without remembering it has other connotations. Sorry.
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Post by spiro on Oct 6, 2014 8:54:20 GMT -5
I also keep a close watch on institutional ownership. Some early numbers are just starting to come out. The early figures look encouraging. We need institutional ownership to get near 35%, then things will get very interesting with the share price. We are in the midst of a long term process where the share price will fluctuate. It may look like the shorts are winning at times, but events could turn poorly for them very quickly. As we get closer to Afrezza's launch, retail investors will start to nibble again, but they will most likely be late to the game, most of them always are. MNKD stock is remarkably undervalued now, for me, it's getting close to all in time. I may even hit some credit cards, LOL. investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=MNKD |
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 6, 2014 10:36:38 GMT -5
"It may look like the shorts are winning at times, but events could turn poorly for them very quickly."
Hi, Spiro! Did you leave out the word "all" between "at" and "times"? I agree, it's a grand illusion, shorts may be winning financially, but that's such a shallow way of assessing success or failure in life.
Reminds me of the story about the Indian philosopher that taught his students that life was a complete illusion, and things that seemed real, actually were not, they only appeared to be. One day, after an elephant stampede terrorized their small town, one of his students, quite disillusioned, asked him, "Professor, why did you run from the elephants, after all they only appeared real?" The wise professor smoothly replied, "Oh, my son, I only appeared to run."
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 6, 2014 11:42:36 GMT -5
babaoriley... There was a faith healer of Deal Who said ‘although pain is not real, If I sit on a pin, And it punctures my skin, I dislike what I fancy I feel.' I know it's just paper loses recently and doesn't reflect any real erosion of value in the company, but ouch!
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 7, 2014 1:30:07 GMT -5
My buddy, Spiro, claims I'm too negative, so I want to clear the air about that. As most of you know, my favorite thing is to poke a little fun at various and sundry folk on this board, and in almost all cases, it's just good-natured kidding and done for fun and effect (Spiro is such a good sport and great foil!!). I also think I look at the share price a little more objectively than many here, and often share my views on that. And, I agree, these views can often make me look like a bear, a short, (fill in your favorite expletive), etc.
Spiro is a great proponent of MNKD, and when he and I talk, I must admit, he mesmerizes me with all his facts, and his arguments about why we're so undervalued, how the shorts are getting hurt, and will be getting really hurt, and all of it is good. Only thing is, ever since the takedown after approval (I let the takedown after the AdCom slip by), I've come to the belief that only very good to excellent sales and, of course, sequential sales growth, will make this stock do what we've been hoping since the turn of the century. I haven't sold but a few shares/warrants, and always seem to replace them at a price that didn't make it worth selling in the first place.
I want to stay in pretty fully invested, because Spiro (and a few others here) might actually get the market action right one of these days. I'm looking forward to being proven too pessimistic on my time frame, but I have no big problem with the company or the way things are unfolding, it's just that whatever has happened to date, has not been enough to defeat the short forces, which I respect, and even underestimated myself (which was tough for a natural born pessimist to have done!).
Good luck to all, and don't forget, many of my posts are to taken with a few grains of salt! I'm very positive on MNKD longer term.
Dodgers really suck.
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Post by thsloppy on Oct 7, 2014 7:19:00 GMT -5
Finally someone has their head on straight. I can no longer read the posts on shorts, longs, manipulation, trends, purchase by sanofi... blah blah blah. What will move the stock is whether the market adopts this product and will it ramp into a commercial success. Plain and simple..sales get off on time and to expectations...stock goes up. If things are sluggish out of the gate...stock goes down. Will payers adopt it? That is key. Without solid payor coverage it does not matter what physicians do. Payors dictate healthcare and what patients receive. If you don't believe it, you are naive. I'm glad it is in Sanofi's hands for this very reason. That is where the expertise comes in from big pharma as they have the payor relationships and history. And make no bones about it..Novo and Lilly are already going to be hammering the payers on Afrezza using every piece of negative data to influence them while at the same time offering them contract incentives for volume commitments. It's how it's done and I do it everyday. So getting back to the share price... the reason we are sitting at $5 is that there is a significant portion of the market that is betting against commercial success. I'm not one of them, especially with Sanofi in our corner, but much is still left to be determined.
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Post by thsloppy on Oct 7, 2014 7:20:09 GMT -5
i meant this as a response to Cyber
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MNKD will be just fine. 
