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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 7, 2014 7:32:00 GMT -5
i meant this as a response to Cyber Thanks, but I question your assessment that I have my head on straight! If I did, I would have sold the beginning of July when I questioned the lack of a price spike (was looking for price over $15). |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Oct 8, 2014 10:43:11 GMT -5
Since it is anyone's guess as to where this will eventually settle, I'd say the real value of MNKD RIGHT NOW is what SNY is investing in the company and that is 1 billion dollars. So take what ever the OS is and devide it into 1 billion and that's the fair value of MNKD. That would put the pps somewhere in the mid $2 range.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Oct 8, 2014 11:05:47 GMT -5
Since it is anyone's guess as to where this will eventually settle, I'd say the real value of MNKD RIGHT NOW is what SNY is investing in the company and that is 1 billion dollars. So take what ever the OS is and devide it into 1 billion and that's the fair value of MNKD. That would put the pps somewhere in the mid $2 range. Much of the milestone payments is based on sales, so if you're throwing out Afrezza sales as part of the value then the figure works out to be much lower. However, I don't believe that is a valid view for valuing MNKD. |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 8, 2014 11:05:55 GMT -5
Since it is anyone's guess as to where this will eventually settle, I'd say the real value of MNKD RIGHT NOW is what SNY is investing in the company and that is 1 billion dollars. So take what ever the OS is and devide it into 1 billion and that's the fair value of MNKD. That would put the pps somewhere in the mid $2 range. Though I've been wondering where the floor is for MNKD as it continues to slide, I don't think we'll get that low. Good news is coming soon (production starting, Sales starting, EU Submission, etc.) which won't cause the stock price to go back to $10 but will hopefully halt the price erosion. Sadly, we're going below $5 very soon (today?) and will continue to fall for at least the next few weeks. |
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Post by bradleysbest on Oct 8, 2014 11:19:54 GMT -5
We are about to find out what happens when the share price drops below 5.00......
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Post by mnkdorbust on Oct 8, 2014 11:28:40 GMT -5
Since it is anyone's guess as to where this will eventually settle, I'd say the real value of MNKD RIGHT NOW is what SNY is investing in the company and that is 1 billion dollars. So take what ever the OS is and devide it into 1 billion and that's the fair value of MNKD. That would put the pps somewhere in the mid $2 range. Though I've been wondering where the floor is for MNKD as it continues to slide, I don't think we'll get that low. Good news is coming soon (production starting, Sales starting, EU Submission, etc.) which won't cause the stock price to go back to $10 but will hopefully halt the price erosion. Sadly, we're going below $5 very soon (today?) and will continue to fall for at least the next few weeks. The one thing that makes me a little nervous for short term PPS is that if for any reason it's announced that the production is delayed from Nov 1st then the scare tactics will be out in full force. With everything else being on point as far as delivering on commitment i feel it will happen on or by Nov 1st but just throwing that bit out there. |
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 8, 2014 11:38:51 GMT -5
We are about to find out what happens when the share price drops below 5.00...... Looks like it's setting up for a push down this afternoon. Seems to be following the same pattern as when the price got close to $9, $8, $7...you get the idea. |
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Post by mannmade on Oct 8, 2014 11:40:48 GMT -5
So as I understand it the topic of this thread is "What Happens if PPS Drops Below $5?"
Not to sound too glib but it really is a simple answer for those who can imho... BUY MORE...
Honestly I expect it to go under $5.00 at some point and am also not sure where the bottom is nor will I even venture a guess anymore as I have been wrong several times recently past... However it is about the science and most of the risk being removed so I just cannot see this stock as anything but a value opportunity with great upside at this point. Never thought I would be in this situation, but my strategy is to adjust when necessary and so I will buy more wherever I can instead of selling some portion for profits (as thought I might by this time after holding for over 5 years)
GLTAL's!
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 8, 2014 11:46:51 GMT -5
So as I understand it the topic of this thread is "What Happens if PPS Drops Below $5?" Not to sound too glib but it really is a simple answer for those who can imho... BUY MORE... GLTAL's! Yes, long term these are bargain prices...question is at what price? Buy now at $5 or wait 2-3 weeks and buy at $4? We know it's $5 now, $4 is not 100% certain but $3.85 is the 52-week low so THAT might be where this is headed. |
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Post by mannmade on Oct 8, 2014 11:59:22 GMT -5
I am in the camp of mnholden, where I buy where I think I can and should as my personal funds become available. If I miss the bottom by say a dollar or even two when I make my next purchase (which at this point I think unlikely but I have been wrong before when doing such calculations in my head) I am ok with that as I honestly believe at a minimum this will be at a $10 share price in a year, short of an earthquake under Danbury (the proverbial Black Swan event). This is a very very conservative share price estimate (perhaps I should finally give in and say guess) on my part just for this conversation's purpose as I expect it to be a bit higher.
However having said the above I would take a 100% for my recent purchases over the next 12 months and I would still also be in the money on my overall average share cost so for this reason I am good with it all... As much as one can be.
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 8, 2014 12:06:46 GMT -5
I am in the camp of mnholden, where I buy where I think I can and should as my personal funds become available. If I miss the bottom by say a dollar or even two (which at this point I think is unlikely but I have been wrong before when doing such calculations in my head) I am ok with that as I honestly believe at a minimum this will be at a $10 share price in a year, short of an earthquake under Danbury (the proverbial Black Swan event). This is a very very conservative share price estimate (perhaps I should finally give in and say guess) on my part just for purposes of this conversation as I expect it to be a bit higher. However having said the above I would take a 100% for my recent purchases over the next 12 months and I would still also be in the money on my overall average share cost so for this reason I am good with it all... As much as one can be. I think it all depends where your cost basis is...what about the new investors who followed what you said at $10 or $9? Life SUCKS for them right now... I say any NEW investors should WAIT until we really hit bottom and it's DIFFIDENTLY in our rear view mirror. |
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Post by mannmade on Oct 8, 2014 12:38:45 GMT -5
First off I agree that Life is very difficult for all of us who have invested in Mannkind the last few years. And I will not try to say otherwise, no matter what your level of investment. However, as we all know and as is often stated on this board, anyone who invests in Bio Tech does so at their own risk and should be honest with themselves and know very well what they can and can't afford to lose and what their personal tolerance for risk is. This is not an investment for the short term retail investor unless you are a day trader or expert at some of the derivative forms of investing. I am a long term investor and have always been so, especially with Mannkind.
Secondly, I am not sure what you mean by followed what i said at $10 or $9 as I am only offering my personal thoughts and experiences (as all others do on this board) and try to back up with the facts as I understand them after reviewing the information at hand and the collective conversation of the time. Nothing I say is intended to persuade or influence to the extent it drives a decision for someone. It is instead my contribution to the collective discussion on the board as a community. I would hope that each individual makes their own decisions based on their own DD and similar engagement in the collective discussion along with the knowledge of their personal needs and experiences with investing.
However regarding the current share price, I don't think anyone saw this being where it is today with all the of the risk that has been removed. And for long term investors I believe that a purchase at $10 (which I made myself) is still a good long term investment and have always said i was 3 to 5 years long when thinking about investing in Mannkind. So for anyone who invested in Mannkind at $10, I would say while at today's share prices one could say it was the wrong time to buy at $10, this is pure hindsight. With what was then known at $10 pps it seemed like a good time to buy, especially when compared with a few other similar situations in bio tech. And in 3 to 5 years imho, I believe I will again wish I could buy at $10.
I believe patience, diligence and knowledge will win out. The science is good and possibly better than we know (subject to confirmation from a few more studies) time is going to prove to be on our side in the future as we begin to see sales growth from word of mouth and expanded labels etc...
I agree with you, it is not fun to wake up and see the share price going down against what all logic dictates should happen at this point but this is the nature and volatility of bio tech... I only offer my personal opinions and think, as you rightly state in effect, that every investor should invest according to their own personal risk tolerance and strategy/financial plan.
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Post by cybergym66 on Oct 8, 2014 13:03:44 GMT -5
. Secondly, I am not sure what you mean by followed what i said at $10 or $9 as I am only offering my personal thoughts and experiences (as all others do on this board) and try to back up with the facts as I understand them after reviewing the information at hand and the collective conversation of the time. Nothing I say is intended to persuade or influence to the extent it drives a decision for someone. It is instead my contribution to the collective discussion on the board as a community. I would hope that each individual makes their own decisions based on their own DD and similar engagement in the collective discussion along with the knowledge of their personal needs and experiences with investing. Sorry, I didn't mean you said to buy at $10, $9. I think I misread your statement. I've read people buying saying "no way this goes lower". My question is why can't it? Wishful thinking? I argue that for right now, investors should stop thinking this is the bottom and should instead buy when they can say the price is back on it's way up. So those investors who bought at $10, $9 should have made sure there was a bottom before buying and not wishing it was the bottom. |
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Post by mannmade on Oct 8, 2014 15:21:20 GMT -5
No worries as did I not take your comment personally, but thank you for your courtesy nonetheless... I agree with you that the prudent thing to do at this point for any investor with the history witnessed we have over the last 12 to 24 months and without a strong personal plan for dealing with Mannkind in the current environment and also a low tolerance for risk; is to wait until we see a pattern of share price increase that is consistent and much less volatile on the downside swings. Especially for those that have a hard time watching the daily fluctuations on the downside. However, this may mean that one might have to wait until there is actual revenue and other news so that the majority of what drives the current speculation, and hence the wild swings and the current downtrend, moving forward on the stock's share price is greatly reduced from current levels. However, at such a place in time one might be looking at a share price of 8 to 10pps (purely a guess on my part for sake of this discussion). Which would mean that it could be almost double from where it is today (and back to where we started this discussion in terms of share price). And therein lies the debate...
So if an investor cannot afford to watch it go lower because you buy on a margin or may need the money back in the short term for other uses than most certainly I would wait. My plan is different for my personal choices, but I do think you make a very valid point that many should consider carefully as they move forward...
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 8, 2014 17:22:44 GMT -5
Price is way too difficult to predict, so just dollar cost average if you want more shares. If you think you'd like $10,000 more shares, buy $2,500 worth now, and then $2,500 more one week from now, then two weeks, then three. Set the dates, and make the purchases, otherwise, you'll just be trying to pick the low and good luck with that.
As evidence of the price prediction issue, how many figured we'd end up where we did today? I know I felt we were about to hit the 4's. Not sure if we did today, didn't even check, but we ended GREEN today - what the heck is that! Only took a mammoth turnaround in the market to do it.
I tend to agree with almost everything mannmade says, except he believes it 100%, and I only believe it 70%. Before too long, mannmade will have about as many shares as Al Mann!
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