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Post by cedafuntennis on Dec 12, 2022 18:19:11 GMT -5
That is one way of looking at it but it still takes you right back to the valuation of the company, not the share price. The share price is meaningless in valuating an investment in any way you would look at it. From your example, you would still take the SP x Shares Outstanding when you invested and compare to the same metric at some future point in time. That takes care of any reverse or forward splits and only that gives you the correct comparison. So I think that you have the correct concept in mind, just a problem of semantics maybe.
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Post by oldfishtowner on Dec 13, 2022 12:22:52 GMT -5
When earnings are at least $0.25/share? (P/E of 40 or less) According to NASDAQ last reported earrings was -0.06 How much more revenue do we need to be bringing in annually to reach your 0.25? I don't know. You tell me. That's the whole point. Besides the revenue approach being like throwing apples, lemons and avocados into a blender to make apple sauce, and the estimates being too optimistic IMO, sales do not necessarily convert to earnings on a fixed ratio or at all. Expenses can change as can margins and other variables.
At the last earnings CC Castagna indicated that more emphasis would be placed on developing the pipeline than on marketing Afrezza. This indicated to me at least that R&D expenses could grow substantially once MNKD shows positive earnings, limiting earnings growth at least in the next year or two. This is not a bad strategy. Certainly a promising pipeline can provide a higher valuation for MNKD than earnings, especially with a couple more successful products, but it has its risks. MNKD still has to prove that its pipeline can produce a sustained output of successful products over the long haul.
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Post by oldfishtowner on Dec 13, 2022 13:34:20 GMT -5
Majority of physicians will continue to follow the ADA’s SoC. So until we get the protocols to be more favorable to Afrezza, we will continue to see very slow progress. I believe Peds approval will help, but it will not make Afrezza a blockbuster unless we produce clinically significant results that force a change in the ADA’s SoC. I don't think peds will help in the T2 space. I see the T1 space very much different than the T2 market. We need a way to overcome the ADA T2 SoC. Maybe its with the TS GLP1 as a combo cartridge. I don't know what the development costs would be or if we can get a partner but maybe the GLP1/afrezza combo can over come this marketing roadblock. What I do know is TS is approved, afrezza is approved and the various GLP1s are approved. Lets see if Mike thinks any of this has any potential. I can see him saying TS GLP1 has not shown any clinical benefits over current GLP1s and he has no interest. I would say if TS GLP1 can avoid the vomiting, acute pancreatitis and the injections that seems significant. I can also see him saying they don't have the resources at this time. I would say some BP like an Abbott who has no GLP1 and has a CGM maybe interested in partnering. I also don't know why it seems it took GLP1 chatter on this board to resurrect TS GLP1 from the freezer I am convinced that management has decided MNKD does not have the talent or financial capability to compete in the market place. Its choice to essentially focus/limit marketing efforts to T1, de-emphasizing the larger T2 market, and focus pipeline development on orphan lung disease is basically a contraction in the vision for the company from what it was a decade ago or even more recently. This may be the result of a realistic assessment of what is best for the company and its stockholders at this place in time, a way to preserve capital, limit risk and still enhance stockholder value, though the latter at a more moderate pace than previously envisioned.
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Post by phdedieu12 on Dec 13, 2022 13:52:38 GMT -5
I am not sure I would have phrased it quite that way but I think it's exactly what is happening. I don't know if it's the result of self introspection or financial analysis, but I share the sentiment that the company isn't going to commit an investment if it's not convinced it will succeed. They've tried a few things that haven't brought results, from ads to increased sales force, to marketing campaign. What is the point of throwing money at pushing Afrezza if the ROI is poor while we have other revenue streams and pipeline assets that could prove more profitable, at least for now. Mannkind is no longer about Afrezza (alone), it's a also a delivery platform and a company with a pipeline in orphan lung disease.
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Post by letitride on Dec 13, 2022 23:53:05 GMT -5
PEDS pending when theres a will theres a way. Promoting the pipeline absolutely. Patience on afrezza wait for it. Time in range is new like Afrezza Its happening.
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Post by mytakeonit on Dec 14, 2022 0:49:18 GMT -5
As all of you SHOULD KNOW ... When MNKD is at $5 per share ... then there is the possibility that we will be listed and the BIG BOYS will be looking at us.
So as I've always said ... "BUY ALL THE CHEAP SHARES YOU CAN !!!"
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by phdedieu12 on Dec 14, 2022 8:37:26 GMT -5
PEDS pending when theres a will theres a way. Promoting the pipeline absolutely. Patience on afrezza wait for it. Time in range is new like Afrezza Its happening. I think PEDS will have a major impact, those endos are the tip of the spear and will usher in a new patient type for Afrezza, the pipeline is slow as each drug will take 4-5 years but at some point we might be able to see one molecule each year. With a focused approach on the high prescribers, Afrezza will have a big year! |
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Post by mango on Dec 14, 2022 9:02:29 GMT -5
According to NASDAQ last reported earrings was -0.06 How much more revenue do we need to be bringing in annually to reach your 0.25? I don't know. You tell me. That's the whole point. Besides the revenue approach being like throwing apples, lemons and avocados into a blender to make apple sauce, and the estimates being too optimistic IMO, sales do not necessarily convert to earnings on a fixed ratio or at all. Expenses can change as can margins and other variables.
At the last earnings CC Castagna indicated that more emphasis would be placed on developing the pipeline than on marketing Afrezza. This indicated to me at least that R&D expenses could grow substantially once MNKD shows positive earnings, limiting earnings growth at least in the next year or two. This is not a bad strategy. Certainly a promising pipeline can provide a higher valuation for MNKD than earnings, especially with a couple more successful products, but it has its risks. MNKD still has to prove that its pipeline can produce a sustained output of successful products over the long haul.
You’re the one that gave a specific earnings price target. I assumed you knew what you were talking about, and would provide a financial example of how your $0.25 earnings would be achieved. Apparently I assumed wrong. |
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Post by oldfishtowner on Dec 14, 2022 23:45:03 GMT -5
I don't know. You tell me. That's the whole point. Besides the revenue approach being like throwing apples, lemons and avocados into a blender to make apple sauce, and the estimates being too optimistic IMO, sales do not necessarily convert to earnings on a fixed ratio or at all. Expenses can change as can margins and other variables.
At the last earnings CC Castagna indicated that more emphasis would be placed on developing the pipeline than on marketing Afrezza. This indicated to me at least that R&D expenses could grow substantially once MNKD shows positive earnings, limiting earnings growth at least in the next year or two. This is not a bad strategy. Certainly a promising pipeline can provide a higher valuation for MNKD than earnings, especially with a couple more successful products, but it has its risks. MNKD still has to prove that its pipeline can produce a sustained output of successful products over the long haul.
You’re the one that gave a specific earnings price target. I assumed you knew what you were talking about, and would provide a financial example of how your $0.25 earnings would be achieved. Apparently I assumed wrong. If you go back and read my response to your original question, you will see that there was a question mark after my statement. That should have been a clue.
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Post by sirlurkalot on Dec 16, 2022 10:29:55 GMT -5
Holding since IPO. So much playtime, so much fun!
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Post by cretin11 on Dec 16, 2022 10:47:14 GMT -5
Holding since IPO. So much playtime, so much fun! Ouch! Bless you sir, you are quite aptly named. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 18, 2022 3:50:13 GMT -5
Holding since IPO. So much playtime, so much fun! Ouch! Bless you sir, you are quite aptly named. Why take the assertion at face value? I’ve been holding since 2013. A decade next year. Fun? Hmmm. Not yet. Epic? Same. Promising? Hope springs eternal. |
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Post by letitride on Dec 18, 2022 9:39:40 GMT -5
What a long strange trip weave been on?
Smoke on the Water!
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Post by mango on Dec 26, 2022 20:07:52 GMT -5
Very interesting poll results.
Thanks to everyone who participated.
2023 will be a great year. Good luck to us all!
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Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2022 21:13:09 GMT -5
What a long strange trip weave been on? Smoke on the Water! Deep Purple...? |
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