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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 17, 2022 21:22:24 GMT -5
Two or three times above the share price ..not in 1 million years, we don’t have any revenue yet to speak off…to offset our debt. We don’t even have 5000 scripts.
It’s all so obvious what to do. Admit failure. Begin search for a different strategy. Call on everyone with any knowledge. Try something outside the box. What have u got to lose?
Afrezza it is not going away, all you have to do is harness the right strategy and you’ve got the blockbuster.
Also anyone who would acquire Afrezza would also be required to complete the long term safety study at a cost of $200-300 million. That makes Afrezza have a negative value to any prospective acquirer.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 18, 2022 3:42:15 GMT -5
Winston Churchill is quoted as saying, roughly, “The definition of success is going from failure to failure with no lack of enthusiasm.”
Where did you come up with a SAFETY (and superiority) study cost of $200-$300 million? I’m used to working on projects that cost that much. That’s a lot of money. I’m not saying you’re wrong. I just want to know more.
I’m very much drawn to sayhey’s arguments about co-branding with a CGM manufacturer, at least. I would also work on bringing legislative and regulatory relief on CGMs without a prescription. I don’t think that’s a heavy lift. There is a lot of sympathy on the hill for diabetics. sayhey and agedhippie both seem to agree that a study around use of Afrezza with GLP merits serious consideration.
The challenge is getting prescribers to prescribe, and insurers to insure. We know the problems. There are direct actions, and indirect actions that can make a difference. I feel it in my bones, just like sayhey says, once people are able to see what Afrezza does by watching their CGM when they use Afrezza, the light will go on. There can be grassroots support for Afrezza that drives prescribing and coverage, but it is an indirect action. I know Mike Castagna is a tireless worker. You’re right, he just needs to find the right strategy.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 18, 2022 3:58:53 GMT -5
Two or three times above the share price ..not in 1 million years, we don’t have any revenue yet to speak off…to offset our debt. We don’t even have 5000 scripts. It’s all so obvious what to do. Admit failure. Begin search for a different strategy. Call on everyone with any knowledge. Try something outside the box. What have u got to lose? Afrezza it is not going away, all you have to do is harness the right strategy and you’ve got the blockbuster. Also anyone who would acquire Afrezza would also be required to complete the long term safety study at a cost of $200-300 million. That makes Afrezza have a negative value to any prospective acquirer. If an acquirer chooses a hostile takeover they have to be able to buy control, which is expensive, and can be very expensive because it can draw a lot of attention. A lot of attention to a small company with the world’s only inhalable human insulin might bring a lot of blue sky investing like what happened with Gamestop. The other approach is to get the owners to agree to a price. The owners of Mannkind historically bought because of Afrezza. Tyvaso DPI is the good shot in the arm, not the goose sitting on the nest waiting to lay the golden eggs. Not sorry for the mixed metaphors. A big chunk of MNKD ownership is retail. Wouild you sell for a 50% increase in the existing share price? Or 75%? I wouldn’t. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 18, 2022 5:51:37 GMT -5
IMO, there's no chance the controlling shareholders would vote to sell for 2X or 3X the current share price. And equally no chance a hostile takeover could get it for that price. Some often quote the history of typical takeover multipliers but those are usually buyouts based on capturing one or two emerging drugs. Again IMO, this is not a comparable basis for a likely disruptor of a ~70 Billion dollar market with additional disruptors in other sizeable markets such as the next undisclosed molecule for UTHR, the potential with RLS and others in the pipeline now and coming. TS is not an emerging drug or two but ground breaking science that's just now finally beginning to be accepted. Al Mann will one day be proven right once again. The multiplier should be discussed again once $10 is passed which should come soon enough.
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 18, 2022 9:03:54 GMT -5
SNY offered Al 2.5 billion and he said no.
We wait… like I said #EverythingOldIsNewAgain
We’re on the cusp💫
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Post by sayhey24 on Dec 18, 2022 9:30:36 GMT -5
Winston Churchill is quoted as saying, roughly, “The definition of success is going from failure to failure with no lack of enthusiasm.” Where did you come up with a SAFETY (and superiority) study cost of $200-$300 million? I’m used to working on projects that cost that much. That’s a lot of money. I’m not saying you’re wrong. I just want to know more. I’m very much drawn to sayhey’s arguments about co-branding with a CGM manufacturer, at least. I would also work on bringing legislative and regulatory relief on CGMs without a prescription. I don’t think that’s a heavy lift. There is a lot of sympathy on the hill for diabetics. sayhey and agedhippie both seem to agree that a study around use of Afrezza with GLP merits serious consideration. The challenge is getting prescribers to prescribe, and insurers to insure. We know the problems. There are direct actions, and indirect actions that can make a difference. I feel it in my bones, just like sayhey says, once people are able to see what Afrezza does by watching their CGM when they use Afrezza, the light will go on. There can be grassroots support for Afrezza that drives prescribing and coverage, but it is an indirect action. I know Mike Castagna is a tireless worker. You’re right, he just needs to find the right strategy. "The challenge is getting prescribers to prescribe, and insurers to insure." How true is that. Houston - we have a marketing problem. The cost to develop afrezza was over $3B. Its FDA approved. It works better than most expected. It could actually stop T2 progression in some PWDs. It may compliment GLP1 usage. The kids study seems to be going well and afrezza is headed to being approved for the kids. Lots of great social media coverage which is nearly all positive. No law suits after 8 years. T1s using GLP1s still loving their afrezza. They have a cash cow with Tyvaso DPI which will pay the bills. They have a platform which can be used for all kinds of new applications including medically dosed CBD. They have 8 years of great safety data. They have a market cap of $1.3B, half the cost of afrezza development. And, they may even have a TS GLP1 sitting in the freezer which may be able to be used in the diet space which had great Phase1 results. Did I mention a market cap which is less than afrezza development? Whats wrong with this picture? Is it really just a marketing issue? Granted, MNKD is up against BP and could potentially disrupt the $40B T2 industry. Taking the industry on is not an easy challenge and its no place for a lightweight. What could afrezza sales be if it could disrupt this $40B industry - $10B a year, maybe more? Whats the margin, 50%+? Did I mention all these new T2s after Covid? Did I mention our T2 CEO uses it himself instead of following the FDA step program and says it really works? Is this really just a marketing issue? |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 18, 2022 12:00:47 GMT -5
It would be interesting to get several hundred endocrinologists in a room (possible) and present them everything that should be persuasive, and then take questions from the audience, and volunteer for small group and 1:1 breakout sessions. Make it someplace exotic and pay for their travel, expenses, and entertainment. It would almost certainly cost less than flying hamburgers.
My guess is regulations around promoting drugs would prohibit such an exhibition. Regardless, there should be opportunity to do something besides the ADA Scientific Sessions where endos and manufacturers can come together to educate and discuss.
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Post by hopingandwilling on Dec 18, 2022 12:25:16 GMT -5
PRC,
<<<<It would be interesting to get several hundred endocrinologists in a room (possible) and present them everything that should be persuasive>>>>
There are no limitations for drug companies being able to have such sessions--MNKD has attended major conferences for years where they have the option to do breakout sessions.
Congrats to those holding MNKD's stock as of late--it has had an excellent upward movement in a horrible market environment.
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Post by lennymnkd on Dec 18, 2022 12:35:54 GMT -5
Altruism need not apply ; when your scenario meets their bottom line $$$ it’s a great
idea , and quite possible. Until then …
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Post by boca1girl on Dec 18, 2022 14:58:24 GMT -5
PCR, I’m confused by your golden goose statement. I assume you mean that T-DPI and Afrezza are just two applications of Technosphere and many more to come over time (years). Just wish that things would move faster.
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Post by peppy on Dec 18, 2022 15:20:39 GMT -5
PCR, I’m confused by your golden goose statement. I assume you mean that T-DPI and Afrezza are just two applications of Technosphere and many more to come over time (years). Just wish that things would move faster. hold on tight. These patterns are fast. |
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Post by boca1girl on Dec 18, 2022 15:26:30 GMT -5
Peppy do you mean the run up to $6.25 or $12 (your targets) that you have shown us on your charts?
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Post by peppy on Dec 18, 2022 16:05:55 GMT -5
Peppy do you mean the run up to $6.25 or $12 (your targets) that you have shown us on your charts? both, one into another. Price should be at $12 in a few months, less than 6 months? Then hold for $20. the 200 month the .382? A coiled spring is what they say with this stuff. Do you see a coiled spring the last two years? joeypotsandpans  :max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/CupandHandleDefinition2_2-70d8f43bbe4c4119a0feddd1976e4ed6.png) |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 18, 2022 16:38:58 GMT -5
I didn't invent the relationship between Earnings Per Share and Price-to-Earnings Ratio. A run-up cannot be sustained on technical indicators alone. There have to be fundamentals which appear on the Income Statement to underwrite the technical behavior.
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Post by Thundersnow on Dec 18, 2022 16:43:39 GMT -5
Peppy do you mean the run up to $6.25 or $12 (your targets) that you have shown us on your charts? both, one into another. Price should be at $12 in a few months, less than 6 months? Then hold for $20. the 200 month the .382? A coiled spring is what they say with this stuff. Do you see a coiled spring the last two years? joeypotsandpans Peppy - You are worth your weight in GOLD. Thank you for your charts!! |
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