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Post by standup on May 9, 2023 17:23:00 GMT -5
Cash Flow from operations is now positive! That's a first and very welcome milestone.
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Post by cretin11 on May 9, 2023 17:28:53 GMT -5
Agree bthomas that $4 share price is justified. I’ve been wrong many times about MNKD share valuation (like everyone else here) but this time we have more numbers to back it up.
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Post by cretin11 on May 9, 2023 17:56:50 GMT -5
Predictions for today? Something to keep us entertained until the call. Everyone here will think it’s a great call and sky’s the limit. How did you know?! 😃 |
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Post by Chris-C on May 9, 2023 17:58:48 GMT -5
Certainly a positive call from nearly every perspective. The unsung star of the show was the conference call operator, one of the best moderators ever, and nice to see so many questions and coverage from analysts who haven't been on calls for quite some time.
For me, there were tons of interesting tidbits, including the comments on building capacity in the Danbury Plant, the discussions with Abbott regarding Bluehale, and the comment that the market for DPI was stronger than ever. I had forgotten that MNKD and UTHR signed a 10 year deal. Obviously, UTHR is very bullish about Tyvaso DPI, and I don't recall discussion here about them planning to spend 500 million for a manufacturing facility. But, as Castagna said, building and certifying a plant is a long term proposition on the order of 5++years. I liked what Mike said about re-doing some old Afrezza studies now that the company knows about dosing for optimal outcome, and his comments that there is growing physician interest in Afrezza as well a growing recognition that Time in Range is a more important measure than the outdated metric of lowering A1C. I find it interesting that although their strategic direction is the pulmonary market, they are dead set on making Afrezza profitable in the diabetes part of their business. Interesting that they completed their marketing effort targeted at primary care physicians and now are focusing on diabetes educators, nurses, and nurse practitioners. The more awareness that there is about inhaled insulin and it's safety, the more assured that Afrezza scripts will continue to grow.
I also liked his perspective on the overall pulmonary arterial hypertension market. He did not mention LQDA by name, (which will likely be coming to market in the next year or so) but Mike's comments suggest that the inhaled treprostrinil market is plenty big enough to share with others. What is interesting to me is how an inhaled version using Technosphere (Tyvaso DPI) matches up with Yutrepia which uses LQDA's "Print" technology. Is anyone aware of head to head comparisons?
Hopefully, today's call will give the SP a boost. But my experience with MNKD after 12 years or so is that good news is punished in the same way that good deeds tend to be. If they just continue executing their plan, perhaps they can drive the shorts to greener pastures.
GLTAL
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Post by ktim on May 9, 2023 18:13:44 GMT -5
Chris-C Seems like "Print" is fairly comparable to Technosphere, at least in producing particles of an appropriately controlled size. I remember the good old days on here with lists of all the MNKD patents on inhalation technology and imagining that meant anyone wanting to do an inhalable would be waiting at the front door to sign a license deal. I guess there would be the relevant question of whether their "Print" technology is cheaper than the MNKD carrier plus the required "spray drying". If anything the "Print" technology seems like it wouldn't scale up as easily as spray drying... but really that's just a wild donkey guess. Though I think safe to say, we don't have some sort of unassailable lock on delivery of inhaled drugs. I think they forgot to put the alligators in the patent moat.
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Post by hellodolly on May 9, 2023 18:33:05 GMT -5
Certainly a positive call from nearly every perspective. The unsung star of the show was the conference call operator, one of the best moderators ever, and nice to see so many questions and coverage from analysts who haven't been on calls for quite some time. For me, there were tons of interesting tidbits, including the comments on building capacity in the Danbury Plant, the discussions with Abbott regarding Bluehale, and the comment that the market for DPI was stronger than ever. I had forgotten that MNKD and UTHR signed a 10 year deal. Obviously, UTHR is very bullish about Tyvaso DPI, and I don't recall discussion here about them planning to spend 500 million for a manufacturing facility. But, as Castagna said, building and certifying a plant is a long term proposition on the order of 5++years. I liked what Mike said about re-doing some old Afrezza studies now that the company knows about dosing for optimal outcome, and his comments that there is growing physician interest in Afrezza as well a growing recognition that Time in Range is a more important measure than the outdated metric of lowering A1C. I find it interesting that although their strategic direction is the pulmonary market, they are dead set on making Afrezza profitable in the diabetes part of their business. Interesting that they completed their marketing effort targeted at primary care physicians and now are focusing on diabetes educators, nurses, and nurse practitioners. The more awareness that there is about inhaled insulin and it's safety, the more assured that Afrezza scripts will continue to grow. I also liked his perspective on the overall pulmonary arterial hypertension market. He did not mention LQDA by name, (which will likely be coming to market in the next year or so) but Mike's comments suggest that the inhaled treprostrinil market is plenty big enough to share with others. What is interesting to me is how an inhaled version using Technosphere (Tyvaso DPI) matches up with Yutrepia which uses LQDA's "Print" technology. Is anyone aware of head to head comparisons?Hopefully, today's call will give the SP a boost. But my experience with MNKD after 12 years or so is that good news is punished in the same way that good deeds tend to be. If they just continue executing their plan, perhaps they can drive the shorts to greener pastures. GLTAL -C I recall the real difference in the two being the ability in the combination of Technosphere and their inhaler vs. LQDAs Print technology and their inhaler. I can't recall exactly the phrase that MC has used in recent presentations, but along the lines of MNKD has "Low Flow/High Uptake" vs LQDA device being "High Flow/Low Uptake". Might be his response without mentioning LQDA but, rather the superiority of their device vs  ?, otherwise, why keep repeating it? If our studies show uptake at 70% and we have superior device technology, have to wonder what is lost in competitors devices? |
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Post by ktim on May 9, 2023 19:07:52 GMT -5
Setting aside jargon, it would be how that is material. If LQDA's solution does the job, it would then boil down to cost and convenience. Their inhaler is larger, so on the latter point dreamboat is better. Though if both get the job done, I imagine some (most/all) insurers might only cover one of them, and likely would put far more weight on the cost than the patient convenience.
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Post by radgray68 on May 9, 2023 19:55:57 GMT -5
Apparently, their product requires a lot more drug. Probably be more expensive to produce.
Put simply,
"Our particles fly better"
- Al Mann
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Post by alethea on May 9, 2023 20:51:53 GMT -5
Cash Flow from operations is now positive! That's a first and very welcome milestone. Yes, indeed. I think he said by or during 4th quarter of 2023. And not too long after that profitability follows. Those are sea change events for MNKD. And did somebody say maybe 200 million in net revenues for 2023? Not certain of that. But the Q1 number is 41M. Times 4 quarters yields 164M but as cited, growth is very good. I think even Afrezza growth was 26% (apologies but these figures are from my weakening memory.... it ain't what it used to be). As I said on Shoutbox, I think this was by far their best conference call ever. Excellent on so many fronts. And the audio was good.  This operation is going in the right direction. The PPS is going to rise significantly. The question is just when. How long will it take? |
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Post by mytakeonit on May 9, 2023 21:02:59 GMT -5
MNKD closed down 8 cents today. After hours it was up 18 cents.
I think tomorrow ... and the rest of our lives will be GREAT !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by brentie on May 9, 2023 21:27:52 GMT -5
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Post by mnlearner on May 9, 2023 21:45:19 GMT -5
"MNKD closed down 8 cents today. After hours it was up 18 cents.
I think tomorrow ... and the rest of our lives will be GREAT !!!
But, that's mytakeonit"
Now, Now where oh where have I heard this before??.... hhmmmmm. (;
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Post by mymann on May 9, 2023 22:51:08 GMT -5
Great call but until crooks at wall street gets their fill in bribes and manipulations will allow the sp to reflect the true value of mnkd. 15 years and still holding the bag.
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Post by letitride on May 10, 2023 1:23:22 GMT -5
Just finished reading the 10 Q, pretty much answers the deferred payment quest. Now all I have to do is digest that our CSA with UT is 3/4 the size of our market cap. And I thought I bought enough cheap shares.
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Post by hellodolly on May 10, 2023 5:43:18 GMT -5
Setting aside jargon, it would be how that is material. If LQDA's solution does the job, it would then boil down to cost and convenience. Their inhaler is larger, so on the latter point dreamboat is better. Though if both get the job done, I imagine some (most/all) insurers might only cover one of them, and likely would put far more weight on the cost than the patient convenience. Yes, agreed when talking about the efficacy and of course it's FDA approved so, no worries on that end...both work. It's material as MNKD has shown during the most recent investment conference presentations, they can be equally as efficacious utilizing smaller quantities, compared to UTHRs competitor who needs larger doses of the drug to reach the same efficacy levels. The graph shown at these conferences made the point. Put both together, high flow vs low flow and the amount required to deliver the drug results in a cost difference simply as a result of an engineering design, both in the device and the powder. If you are concerned with some (most/all) insurers only choosing one therapy, my guess is UTHR gets the coverage, if not both will be covered but UTHR will carry the highest market share. I cannot see LQDA being the sole source for coverage. |
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?, otherwise, why keep repeating it? If our studies show uptake at 70% and we have superior device technology, have to wonder what is lost in competitors devices?
