Quarterly Earnings Forecasts

[tarheelblue004]

Hi all, I would like to propose a new thread for quarterly earnings forecasts. Currently we are doing this across multiple threads (e.g. Thundersnow's great analysis in the "what's going on" thread; my analyses in the "billion dollar question" thread) and it would be nice to centralize it. Further benefit would be being able to go back and see analyses we did for previous quarters, have our assumptions documented in this same place, and to use the earnings reports to clear up assumptions for future analyses (e.g. how Tyvaso royalty trends correlate with Symphony trends).

Here are my thoughts on revenue for the next quarter. Costs and profitability I'll do another time. My numbers are fairly in-line with Thundersnow's, via different assumptions.

Afrezza: $12.4M   - 14.8% growth over Q3, compared to last year's 15.3% growth for Q4 over Q3
V-Go: $5.4M        - no change from Q3, keeping in the 1-year revenue guidance of $20M - $22M
Royalty: $18.6M   - 3X the revenues from Q3, splitting the low-end estimate of 2X (top-down) and high-end of 4X (bottoms-up)
C&S: $27.9M        - assumes manufacturing revenue = 1.5X royalty revenue, in-line with Q3 ($6.2M royalty vs. $9.9M manufacturing)
Total: $64.3M

I am considering this to be the middle-end of the range, depending on how Tyvaso DPI royalties grow:

Low-end (2X Royalty Growth): $48M total revenue, 50% QoQ growth
Mid-end (3X Royalty Growth): $64M total revenue, 100% QoQ growth
High-end (4X Royalty Growth): $80M total revenue, 150% QoQ growth

To be conservative I'll go with a range of $55M - $65M in Q4 revenue for my forecast. And I am looking to learn from the results if there is a correlation between Symphony trends and Tyvaso DPI royalties and to sharpen other assumptions (e.g. the ratio between Royalties and C&S).

[neil36]

Hope you are right. On the Yahoo analysis page, the high analyst estimates $39.4 million, and the average of the six analysts is $35.23 million. If actual comes anywhere close to your numbers, that would be a massive earnings beat.

[ryster505]

Tarheel could be onto something…Analysts are just as in the dark as we are, and being that Tyvaso is growing so fast and at a much higher conversion rate that anyone forecasts, I wouldn’t be surprised by a huge beat. Definitely in the realm of possibility.

[tarheelblue004]

Q3 Tyvaso DPI manufacturing and royalty revenue increased 167% from Q2, from $6.2M to $16.5M. For our Q4 revenue to be $35M, Tyvaso DPI could not increase by more than 20% ($3M). In the same time period, Symphony is showing 300 - 350% growth.

So last quarter it grew 167%, Symphony is showing growth of 300% this quarter, and Analysts think it will be 20% this quarter. I don't think it's a question of whether the Analysts are wrong, I think the question is by how much. I think Q4 and Q1 will be a ball, let's see when they catch up.

[Thundersnow]

Let’s not forget Martine said they like to keep a 12 month supply in inventory so sooner or later that will have to be factored in.

[prcgorman2]

Dec 28, 2022 21:17:57 GMT -5 tarheelblue004 said:

Q3 Tyvaso DPI manufacturing and royalty revenue increased 167% from Q2, from $6.2M to $16.5M. For our Q4 revenue to be $35M, Tyvaso DPI could not increase by more than 20% ($3M). In the same time period, Symphony is showing 300 - 350% growth.

So last quarter it grew 167%, Symphony is showing growth of 300% this quarter, and Analysts think it will be 20% this quarter. I don't think it's a question of whether the Analysts are wrong, I think the question is by how much. I think Q4 and Q1 will be a ball, let's see when they catch up.

Didn't quite follow, but I like what you're saying.

Per Mannkind's last earnings report, 3Q 2022 Royalties from Tyvaso DPI of $6.2 million.  As far as I know, there were no earnings from Tyvaso DPI in the 2Q report.

[tarheelblue004]

Q2: $5.9m C&S + $0.3m Royalties = $6.2m Tyvaso DPI revenue
Q3: $10.3m C&S + $6.2m Royalties = $16.5m Tyvaso DPI revenue
Growth rate from Q2 to Q3 = 167%

Q4: Symphony showing 300%+ Tyvaso DPI growth. Analysts consensus is only $3m in growth from Q3. If all of that $3m came from Tyvaso C&S + royalty, Tyvaso revenue can only grow < 20% (from $16.5m last quarter). Symphony trends, Martine, and last quarter's growth rate are all telling a different story than < 20% growth.

[celo]

When were the analyst reports posted? At the beginning of the quarter before Tyvaso DPI was showing consistent sales?

[Thundersnow]

YEAR END for Symphony Results (ONLY).   Does not include Specialty Pharmacy numbers.



Tyvaso DPI Revs.

3Q 2022    $12,797,420
4Q 2022    $61,450,000 (+373%)

[prcgorman2]

Did you mean 3Q 2022 and 4Q 2022? No numbers for 2023 yet (or were you forecasting?)

[prcgorman2]

Dec 28, 2022 11:39:09 GMT -5 tarheelblue004 said:

Hi all, I would like to propose a new thread for quarterly earnings forecasts. Currently we are doing this across multiple threads (e.g. Thundersnow 's great analysis in the "what's going on" thread; my analyses in the "billion dollar question" thread) and it would be nice to centralize it. Further benefit would be being able to go back and see analyses we did for previous quarters, have our assumptions documented in this same place, and to use the earnings reports to clear up assumptions for future analyses (e.g. how Tyvaso royalty trends correlate with Symphony trends).

Here are my thoughts on revenue for the next quarter. Costs and profitability I'll do another time. My numbers are fairly in-line with Thundersnow's, via different assumptions.

Afrezza: $12.4M   - 14.8% growth over Q3, compared to last year's 15.3% growth for Q4 over Q3
V-Go: $5.4M        - no change from Q3, keeping in the 1-year revenue guidance of $20M - $22M
Royalty: $18.6M   - 3X the revenues from Q3, splitting the low-end estimate of 2X (top-down) and high-end of 4X (bottoms-up)
C&S: $27.9M        - assumes manufacturing revenue = 1.5X royalty revenue, in-line with Q3 ($6.2M royalty vs. $9.9M manufacturing)
Total: $64.3M

I am considering this to be the middle-end of the range, depending on how Tyvaso DPI royalties grow:

Low-end (2X Royalty Growth): $48M total revenue, 50% QoQ growth
Mid-end (3X Royalty Growth): $64M total revenue, 100% QoQ growth
High-end (4X Royalty Growth): $80M total revenue, 150% QoQ growth

To be conservative I'll go with a range of $55M - $65M in Q4 revenue for my forecast. And I am looking to learn from the results if there is a correlation between Symphony trends and Tyvaso DPI royalties and to sharpen other assumptions (e.g. the ratio between Royalties and C&S).

I agree with your model although I don't know how Tyvaso-DPI inventory management works so I wonder whether manufacturing revenue will behave linearly. 

[Thundersnow]

Jan 6, 2023 12:18:48 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

Did you mean 3Q 2022 and 4Q 2022? No numbers for 2023 yet (or were you forecasting?)

Yes my bad.  I corrected it. 

[harryx1]

Last Feb Q4 report was the following...

Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2021
Total revenues were $75.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2021

This Feb Q4 report will read something like...

Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2022
Total revenues were ~$135 million for the year ended December 31, 2022

[hellodolly]

Jan 6, 2023 12:54:43 GMT -5 harryx1 said:

Last Feb Q4 report was the following...

Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2021
Total revenues were $75.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2021

This Feb Q4 report will read something like...

Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2022
Total revenues were ~$135 million for the year ended December 31, 2022

WS should be able to run full year guidance for 2023 after the last full quarter of all revenues.  Feb Q4 2024 will be a banger! 

[tarheelblue004]

If Q4 2022 is ~$60M and each quarter next year is the same (no growth), FY23 revenue will be ~$240M This is a large under-estimate because we KNOW there will be QoQ growth every quarter next year, if only for Tyvaso DPI based on UT’s goals for 25 by 25.

While we don’t know where Q4 2022 will land, I think it will be almost (if not more than) double Q3 2022. And that FY23 will be almost (if not more than) double FY22.