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Post by diski58 on Aug 22, 2023 10:27:42 GMT -5
With the gap on the daily and hourly charts we can see this go down to $4.60 area on any pullbacks, would be a great buying area if looking to add or start a position IMO. This could happen on a bigger overall market correction which is certainly plausible coming towards the back half of Q3 and start of Q4. Having said that, I am expecting increasing coverage and upgrades going forward. 😉👍🏻 Nice call Joey! |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 22, 2023 10:47:42 GMT -5
With the gap on the daily and hourly charts we can see this go down to $4.60 area on any pullbacks, would be a great buying area if looking to add or start a position IMO. This could happen on a bigger overall market correction which is certainly plausible coming towards the back half of Q3 and start of Q4. Having said that, I am expecting increasing coverage and upgrades going forward. 😉👍🏻 Nice call Joey! TY!, I had bought puts to hedge and sold them this morning, downside risk should be very limited from here, reiterating this would be the area to add or start a position for those that are comfortable with exposure to this equity. 😉 |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 22, 2023 10:49:52 GMT -5
Oy, Friday's appear to be bad days for MNKD as far as shorting is concerned. The FINRA-reported short volume the last two Fridays was over 65%. Yesterday's volume was over 43%.
Shares available for borrow have reliably been between 2.5M and 2.9M since I began watching the last couple of months. Today it dropped to 800,000. It's back up again but that's the first time I've seen a drop like that. Also, the borrowing rate has been reliably around .25 to .27 most of the time, but this month went as high as .30 and yesterday and this morning it was .38 and currently at .30. That's not shocking, but those two observations appear to agree and that is informative.
We are constantly reminded that the Short Interest Rate (SIR) on MNKD is "normal" although Investopedia and others conversly describe an SIR of >10% as "fairly high". The current days-to-cover is >22, the most in the last year. powercycletrading.com described days-to-cover above 10 as indicating "extreme pessimism".
So why aren't analysts viewing MNKD with "extreme pessimism"? Instead, analyst coverage has increased over the last year and the price targets increased.
What should we think about these juxtaposed outlooks and data?
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 22, 2023 11:26:21 GMT -5
... We are constantly reminded that the Short Interest Rate (SIR) on MNKD is "normal" although Investopedia and others conversly describe an SIR of >10% as "fairly high". The current days-to-cover is >22, the most in the last year. powercycletrading.com described days-to-cover above 10 as indicating "extreme pessimism". So why aren't analysts viewing MNKD with "extreme pessimism"? Instead, analyst coverage has increased over the last year and the price targets increased. What should we think about these juxtaposed outlooks and data? The reported short numbers are rather opaque, but if the shorts are real the loan rate will move. If the report says shorting is high and the rate is unmoved everyone shrugs and moves on. Persistent elevated loan rates are what worries analysts and we don't see those. |
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Post by peppy on Aug 22, 2023 11:46:02 GMT -5
MNKD is getting clobbered on high volume this morning. 41,873 the first min. 230,000 at 30 mins, 665,591 at 1 hour of trade. $4.615 -0.145 (-3.05%) crazy volume pumping through MNKD at 1 hour and 48 mins of trade Volume: 1,238,160 AUG 22, 2023 11:18 AM ET $4.635 -0.125 (-2.63%)
At 2 hours of trade, MNKD volume, 1,476,778 shares. $4.62 MNKD volume at the half day of trade, Volume: 1,799,603 shares. $4.61 3.15% -0.15 Volume is slowing down a bit. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 22, 2023 12:02:48 GMT -5
... We are constantly reminded that the Short Interest Rate (SIR) on MNKD is "normal" although Investopedia and others conversly describe an SIR of >10% as "fairly high". The current days-to-cover is >22, the most in the last year. powercycletrading.com described days-to-cover above 10 as indicating "extreme pessimism". So why aren't analysts viewing MNKD with "extreme pessimism"? Instead, analyst coverage has increased over the last year and the price targets increased. What should we think about these juxtaposed outlooks and data? , but if the shorts are real the loan rate will move. If the report says shorting is high and the rate is unmoved everyone shrugs and moves on. Persistent elevated loan rates are what worries analysts and we don't see those. Your words in bold are an understatement. The loan rates have recently increased and days-to-cover is the highest in over a year. Is it an anomaly or a change in the trend of "fairly high" shorting? The whole system of self-reporting, dark trades, and lack of adoption of CAT seem designed to inhibit or prevent oversight. When folks moving massive amounts of money persistently tell you, "there's nothing to see here", it's time to consider investigating.
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 22, 2023 12:05:57 GMT -5
On August 2, before MNKD busted analyst predictions on its quarterly call and forecasted higher (but understated) profits from Tyvaso DPI ahead, MNKD was trading at 4.59. So we have now retraced ALL of the gain from that great call and its forecasts and the stock appears to be heading lower. No good deed goes unpunished with this company. Are we seeing shorts or profit takers worried that the general trend of the market is dismal? The Schwab news doesn't provide a very bright outlook for equities generally. GLTAL.
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Aug 22, 2023 12:34:30 GMT -5
TY!, I had bought puts to hedge and sold them this morning, downside risk should be very limited from here, reiterating this would be the area to add or start a position for those that are comfortable with exposure to this equity. 😉 Bought another 2,700 shares, this stock will be 2x within 12 months |
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 22, 2023 12:58:47 GMT -5
TY!, I had bought puts to hedge and sold them this morning, downside risk should be very limited from here, reiterating this would be the area to add or start a position for those that are comfortable with exposure to this equity. 😉 Bought another 2,700 shares, this stock will be 2x within 12 months Perhaps. Not to be cynical, but 2x current SP or sub 4? Just when I think this stock has bottomed, it manages to exceed expectations by falling to lower depths. Just sayin'... |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 22, 2023 13:11:03 GMT -5
Bought another 2,700 shares, this stock will be 2x within 12 months Perhaps. Not to be cynical, but 2x current SP or sub 4? Just when I think this stock has bottomed, it manages to exceed expectations by falling to lower depths. Just sayin'... Chris, think of it this way, when the inevitable recession hits (and it will, I'm not in the soft landing camp) what would a growth (positive growing earnings) and defensive sector (healthcare) be valued at? Where else would you rather be in a correcting market in stocks? Throw a weakening dollar on top of it with potential growth internationally and I like dem apples. 😉 |
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rebby
Researcher
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Post by rebby on Aug 22, 2023 13:21:14 GMT -5
Bought another 2,700 shares, this stock will be 2x within 12 months Perhaps. Not to be cynical, but 2x current SP or sub 4? Just when I think this stock has bottomed, it manages to exceed expectations by falling to lower depths. Just sayin'... 2x current SP. November EC will be a game changer IMHO. Positive earnings with successive, high QoQ growth…it will get the market’s attention. I have been with this stock since 2014 and I wish that the SP were higher now too, but the company is better positioned today than at any point in its existence with a very bright future. As the old adage states, patience is a virtue, stay strong and trust in the fundamentals. |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 22, 2023 14:28:28 GMT -5
rebby is that post cut/pasted from last month? I'm experiencing a strong sense of déjà vu reading it.
I'm only kidding of course (for those who take things über seriously). Your post could've been written before the last EC, and the one before it, etc. That being said, I hope you're right. Though I suspect what you're describing is mostly priced in (speaking of déjà vu) as it's not complicated for smart folks to forecast November's numbers. But CFBE is getting closer so at least we have that bit of safety and are significantly de-risked.
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Post by peppy on Aug 22, 2023 15:04:47 GMT -5
crazy volume pumping through MNKD at 1 hour and 48 mins of trade Volume: 1,238,160 AUG 22, 2023 11:18 AM ET $4.635 -0.125 (-2.63%)
At 2 hours of trade, MNKD volume, 1,476,778 shares. $4.62 MNKD volume at the half day of trade, Volume: 1,799,603 shares. $4.61 3.15% -0.15 Volume is slowing down a bit. MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, Volume: 4,012,413 $4.54 -0.22 (-4.62%) MNKD Daily schrts.co/suzfQSDUUTHR daily. schrts.co/rNmvbBsS |
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 22, 2023 15:34:11 GMT -5
Perhaps. Not to be cynical, but 2x current SP or sub 4? Just when I think this stock has bottomed, it manages to exceed expectations by falling to lower depths. Just sayin'... 2x current SP. November EC will be a game changer IMHO. Positive earnings with successive, high QoQ growth…it will get the market’s attention. I have been with this stock since 2014 and I wish that the SP were higher now too, but the company is better positioned today than at any point in its existence with a very bright future. As the old adage states, patience is a virtue, stay strong and trust in the fundamentals. I totally get it, since I've been a shareholder since before 2014. I've had so many buying opportunities MNKD easily represents the biggest chunk of my equity holdings. (50K shares) I haven't sold a share, even though for most of the investment it's been dead money and an anchor. At some point I will be selling, and hopefully not at a loss, since I've got some deeply underwater shares from before the reverse split. So as it marches lower it's getting closer to the break even line and below. I agree that the future has never looked brighter, but one has to wonder how many quarters of positive profits the company needs to report before the rest of the street takes notice? At this point, I sense that the company needs to hit break even with the diabetes products, continued improved sales with Tyvaso DPI, and (IMO) a partnership on another molecule to really take off. |
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Aug 22, 2023 15:46:56 GMT -5
2x current SP. November EC will be a game changer IMHO. Positive earnings with successive, high QoQ growth…it will get the market’s attention. I have been with this stock since 2014 and I wish that the SP were higher now too, but the company is better positioned today than at any point in its existence with a very bright future. As the old adage states, patience is a virtue, stay strong and trust in the fundamentals. I totally get it, since I've been a shareholder since before 2014. I've had so many buying opportunities MNKD easily represents the biggest chunk of my equity holdings. (50K shares) I haven't sold a share, even though for most of the investment it's been dead money and an anchor. At some point I will be selling, and hopefully not at a loss, since I've got some deeply underwater shares from before the reverse split. So as it marches lower it's getting closer to the break even line and below. I agree that the future has never looked brighter, but one has to wonder how many quarters of positive profits the company needs to report before the rest of the street takes notice? At this point, I sense that the company needs to hit break even with the diabetes products, continued improved sales with Tyvaso DPI, and (IMO) a partnership on another molecule to really take off. My perspective may be different if I were underwater, I acknowledge that. I am also weighted high on MNKD and want the launch to occur…I’m anxious at times. I do strongly believe that we have a path to $8-$10 in 12 months, and while I’m a believer in the market pricing in known information, there is an emotional barrier that we will breach in November with positive earnings. My goal is to hold until $20 (and then sell a portion) but I don’t see that path just yet. That’s where I believe we will need Peds or 1-2 more marketed products to be successful. Either way, I see better days ahead! GLTAL! |
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