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Post by agedhippie on Aug 22, 2023 16:36:11 GMT -5
... I agree that the future has never looked brighter, but one has to wonder how many quarters of positive profits the company needs to report before the rest of the street takes notice? At this point, I sense that the company needs to hit break even with the diabetes products, continued improved sales with Tyvaso DPI, and (IMO) a partnership on another molecule to really take off.^This. Until there a couple more partners the market is going to see MNKD as one of UTHR's suppliers rather than a delivery product vendor (with one customer it's a point solution, with several it's a product and strategic) The other thing is that they are going to start asking about strategic direction. Is MNKD a company selling drugs like Afrezza and the pipeline drugs, or is it a company selling Technosphere to package 3rd party drugs? Keeping things simple helps with the Street. |
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Post by ktim on Aug 22, 2023 17:22:10 GMT -5
Oy, Friday's appear to be bad days for MNKD as far as shorting is concerned. The FINRA-reported short volume the last two Fridays was over 65%. Yesterday's volume was over 43%. Shares available for borrow have reliably been between 2.5M and 2.9M since I began watching the last couple of months. Today it dropped to 800,000. It's back up again but that's the first time I've seen a drop like that. Also, the borrowing rate has been reliably around .25 to .27 most of the time, but this month went as high as .30 and yesterday and this morning it was .38 and currently at .30. That's not shocking, but those two observations appear to agree and that is informative. We are constantly reminded that the Short Interest Rate (SIR) on MNKD is "normal" although Investopedia and others conversly describe an SIR of >10% as "fairly high". The current days-to-cover is >22, the most in the last year. powercycletrading.com described days-to-cover above 10 as indicating "extreme pessimism". So why aren't analysts viewing MNKD with "extreme pessimism"? Instead, analyst coverage has increased over the last year and the price targets increased. What should we think about these juxtaposed outlooks and data? You know what I've stated about the juxtaposed data (or merely the appearance there of), but I believe you dismiss that convertible debt holders would have persistent open short position as hedge. We may indeed be having some short term traders piling on now for a correction from the big pop, but the days-to-cover as an indicator of "extreme pessimism" doesn't much apply if a majority of the open short shares will never have to be acquired from the daily volume, but will instead be covered when MNKD issues new shares for the debt. I think the borrowing rate is an actual indicator of real short pressure being applied. I give hardly any credence to those daily FINRA SIR numbers being at all useful. Tons of stocks including current blue chip darlings have those numbers way above 10%. Not everything on Investopedia can be trusted. One can easily go to those sites providing the information and look up blue chip names. If that data were really useful for imputing the open short interest someone would be doing it. It is not. |
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Post by ktim on Aug 22, 2023 17:34:53 GMT -5
$8 within 12 and $12 within 24, notwithstanding possibility of temporary spikes.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 22, 2023 21:42:25 GMT -5
Oy, Friday's appear to be bad days for MNKD as far as shorting is concerned. The FINRA-reported short volume the last two Fridays was over 65%. Yesterday's volume was over 43%. Shares available for borrow have reliably been between 2.5M and 2.9M since I began watching the last couple of months. Today it dropped to 800,000. It's back up again but that's the first time I've seen a drop like that. Also, the borrowing rate has been reliably around .25 to .27 most of the time, but this month went as high as .30 and yesterday and this morning it was .38 and currently at .30. That's not shocking, but those two observations appear to agree and that is informative. We are constantly reminded that the Short Interest Rate (SIR) on MNKD is "normal" although Investopedia and others conversly describe an SIR of >10% as "fairly high". The current days-to-cover is >22, the most in the last year. powercycletrading.com described days-to-cover above 10 as indicating "extreme pessimism". So why aren't analysts viewing MNKD with "extreme pessimism"? Instead, analyst coverage has increased over the last year and the price targets increased. What should we think about these juxtaposed outlooks and data? You know what I've stated about the juxtaposed data (or merely the appearance there of), but I believe you dismiss that convertible debt holders would have persistent open short position as hedge. We may indeed be having some short term traders piling on now for a correction from the big pop, but the days-to-cover as an indicator of "extreme pessimism" doesn't much apply if a majority of the open short shares will never have to be acquired from the daily volume, but will instead be covered when MNKD issues new shares for the debt. I think the borrowing rate is an actual indicator of real short pressure being applied. I give hardly any credence to those daily FINRA SIR numbers being at all useful. Tons of stocks including current blue chip darlings have those numbers way above 10%. Not everything on Investopedia can be trusted. One can easily go to those sites providing the information and look up blue chip names. If that data were really useful for imputing the open short interest someone would be doing it. It is not. I agree the FINRA data is not very good, but what else is there? Your explanation of convertible debt holder short positions makes some sense, but then I think debt at low interest rates is not good these days. What would be the share price if the debt holders took their foot off the neck of MNKD and covered? Is there something that prevents them from converting their low-interest debt to shares in a company whose outlook is good and looking to get better-than good? |
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Post by ktim on Aug 22, 2023 22:01:09 GMT -5
It could be that those are funds where taking bets on equity positions simply isn't within their mandate. A wealthy investor would put his money in an equity fund if he wanted that exposure and put his money in a private credit fund to get credit exposure and likely want it hedged as much as possible. It's a world I only know about because of Mannkind and don't claim to know any specifics about MNKD's particular creditors. In general funds have their playbooks and stick to them... might even be contractually obligated to their own shareholders to follow the playbook.
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Post by peppy on Aug 23, 2023 9:04:48 GMT -5
volume has come into MNKD. at 1/2 hour of trade,........ it started off slow. Volume: 374,349 AUG 23, 2023 10:03 AM ET $4.60 +0.06 (+1.32%) let's see what happens today. www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mnkd/real-timeadded, MNKD volume at 1 hour of trade, high volume. $4.62 +0.08 (+1.76%) Volume: 768,286 AUG 23, 2023 10:29 AM ET |
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Post by peppy on Aug 23, 2023 10:36:01 GMT -5
volume has come into MNKD. at 1/2 hour of trade,........ it started off slow. Volume: 374,349 AUG 23, 2023 10:03 AM ET $4.60 +0.06 (+1.32%) let's see what happens today. www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mnkd/real-timeadded, MNKD volume at 1 hour of trade, high volume. $4.62 +0.08 (+1.76%) Volume: 768,286 AUG 23, 2023 10:29 AM ET $4.595 +0.055 (+1.21%) Bid: $4.59 x 3409 Ask: $4.60 x 3126 Volume: 1,134,652 AUG 23, 2023 11:32 AM ET Over a million shares in two hours is high volume for MNKD. Price however is holding too tight. $4.75 is the support and resistance level. Perhaps the shorts are covering here. Interesting the short was the $5.73 ish. As $5.31 is the conversion price. .$4.66 +0.12 (+2.64%) Bid: $4.65 x 3435 Ask: $4.66 x 1400 Volume: 1,354,143 AUG 23, 2023 12:30 PM ET at the 4 hour mark . . |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 23, 2023 11:40:03 GMT -5
You know what I've stated about the juxtaposed data (or merely the appearance there of), but I believe you dismiss that convertible debt holders would have persistent open short position as hedge. We may indeed be having some short term traders piling on now for a correction from the big pop, but the days-to-cover as an indicator of "extreme pessimism" doesn't much apply if a majority of the open short shares will never have to be acquired from the daily volume, but will instead be covered when MNKD issues new shares for the debt. I think the borrowing rate is an actual indicator of real short pressure being applied. I give hardly any credence to those daily FINRA SIR numbers being at all useful. Tons of stocks including current blue chip darlings have those numbers way above 10%. Not everything on Investopedia can be trusted. One can easily go to those sites providing the information and look up blue chip names. If that data were really useful for imputing the open short interest someone would be doing it. It is not. I agree the FINRA data is not very good, but what else is there? The share borrowing/lending rates. IMO those provide the more useful measure in gauging impact of short interest on MNKD (and any equity). |
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Post by awesomo on Aug 23, 2023 11:46:57 GMT -5
You know what I've stated about the juxtaposed data (or merely the appearance there of), but I believe you dismiss that convertible debt holders would have persistent open short position as hedge. We may indeed be having some short term traders piling on now for a correction from the big pop, but the days-to-cover as an indicator of "extreme pessimism" doesn't much apply if a majority of the open short shares will never have to be acquired from the daily volume, but will instead be covered when MNKD issues new shares for the debt. I think the borrowing rate is an actual indicator of real short pressure being applied. I give hardly any credence to those daily FINRA SIR numbers being at all useful. Tons of stocks including current blue chip darlings have those numbers way above 10%. Not everything on Investopedia can be trusted. One can easily go to those sites providing the information and look up blue chip names. If that data were really useful for imputing the open short interest someone would be doing it. It is not. I agree the FINRA data is not very good, but what else is there? Your explanation of convertible debt holder short positions makes some sense, but then I think debt at low interest rates is not good these days. What would be the share price if the debt holders took their foot off the neck of MNKD and covered? Is there something that prevents them from converting their low-interest debt to shares in a company whose outlook is good and looking to get better-than good? Debt-holders are looking for principal protection and consistency in return on their investment. Converting to shares increases the risk profile dramatically, so just having a decent outlook probably isn't enticing enough. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 23, 2023 12:18:09 GMT -5
Reasonable, but since none of us can tell how much of a short position the lenders hold or should hold, I tend towards my bias of distrust and assume there’s shorting, and then there’s illegal share price manipulation. And it can go both ways up or down but fear is more effective than hype at psychological manipulation, even the most powerful hype causes fear - fear of missing out on which pump-and-dump schemes feed. Anyway, because we can’t usefully decide how much of the SIR is “ok”, I tend to believe it’s not ok. Regardless, there’s been a lot of good posts here from folks I typically disagree with so thank you for a good, respectful, exchange of thoughts and ideas.
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Post by peppy on Aug 23, 2023 15:19:45 GMT -5
volume has come into MNKD. at 1/2 hour of trade,........ it started off slow. Volume: 374,349 AUG 23, 2023 10:03 AM ET $4.60 +0.06 (+1.32%) let's see what happens today. www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mnkd/real-timeadded, MNKD volume at 1 hour of trade, high volume. $4.62 +0.08 (+1.76%) Volume: 768,286 AUG 23, 2023 10:29 AM ET $4.595 +0.055 (+1.21%) Bid: $4.59 x 3409 Ask: $4.60 x 3126 Volume: 1,134,652 AUG 23, 2023 11:32 AM ET Over a million shares in two hours is high volume for MNKD. Price however is holding too tight. $4.75 is the support and resistance level. Perhaps the shorts are covering here. Interesting the short was the $5.73 ish. As $5.31 is the conversion price. .$4.66 +0.12 (+2.64%) Bid: $4.65 x 3435 Ask: $4.66 x 1400 Volume: 1,354,143 AUG 23, 2023 12:30 PM ET at the 4 hour mark . . Then the volume stopped, MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, Volume: 2,890,294 shares. $4.63 1.98% +0.090 . MNKD daily chart, schrts.co/YqsjWqUa |
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Aug 24, 2023 10:31:35 GMT -5
Nice action today. No more gaps on the way up please!
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Post by peppy on Aug 24, 2023 10:36:02 GMT -5
Yes price made it to the last resistance that should have been support, the $4.75. on a little more than half a million shares.
$4.76 +0.13 (+2.81%)
Volume: 587,342
AUG 24, 2023 11:33 AM ET
=========================================================================
I hear your sentiment, however, Gaps.
Break away gaps,
Continuation gaps,
Exhaustion gas.
They have their uses.
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Post by peppy on Aug 24, 2023 14:16:58 GMT -5
Perhaps the higher price goes the more stops it is hitting as volume with 45 mins left to go is, Volume: 1,600,437. MNKD making new highs on the day $4.78 3.13% +0.15 The Nasdaq -188. MNKD weekly. schrts.co/WyvJDYBDMNKD Nasdaq real time volume, 2,823,479 shares. $4.78 3.24% +0.15 |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 24, 2023 15:57:20 GMT -5
This on the day the Dow and NASDAQ got hammered. Must be criminals pumping our stock again. Go criminals!
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