|
|
Post by radgray68 on Feb 17, 2023 20:17:52 GMT -5
To me, I would feel safe to buy with two fists on the chart patterns alone. Even if I didn't know what company this was. The one year shows both a double bottom and what could be seen as two cup-n-handles ready to break out.
Thanks for all the great charts and insights you guys. My wife thinks I'm crazy for admiring them so much but I don't care. They're beautiful.
At least HERE I'm not a freak :0)
|
|
|
|
Post by JEvans on Feb 17, 2023 21:19:41 GMT -5
Could this being the 3rd Friday of the month OpEx day cause stocks to stay lower than, I at least, was expecting?
|
|
|
|
Post by olebob1 on Feb 17, 2023 21:20:08 GMT -5
I’m nervous that the stock price is running up into earnings then sell off like it has in the past. If I sell short term coved calls, I could catch the dip if there is one. With my luck there will be no dip after earnings. Does anyone else sell short term covered calls around earnings release? The way MNKD share price is behaving, and the information we have regarding potential revenue and the chart pattern, MNKD could gap up. I would bet on the gap over the sell off. Boca Girl, I agree with Peppy on this 4QTR CC. This time around it just feels different. Maybe we have just all been in the big ten smoking Hopium, we will all see soon. I had sold 300 contracts $7 strike (Jan 2024) awhile back to pay some estimate taxes etc. I felt the momentum turn recently and I bought them back at a small loss @.60-.65. today most are trading @.85 with twice the bids @.75 as the ask @.95. Good luck with whatever you do. You seem to be a very solid investor. |
|
|
|
Post by cedafuntennis on Feb 17, 2023 21:26:43 GMT -5
To me, I would feel safe to buy with two fists on the chart patterns alone. Even if I didn't know what company this was. The one year shows both a double bottom and what could be seen as two cup-n-handles ready to break out. Thanks for all the great charts and insights you guys. My wife thinks I'm crazy for admiring them so much but I don't care. They're beautiful. At least HERE I'm not a freak :0) Your wife is jealous! |
|
|
|
Post by boca1girl on Feb 17, 2023 21:48:32 GMT -5
Buying on the dip, as some promote, maybe the right thing to do if I had any more $$. When you’re full invested, the only way I can see to take advantage of a dip is to sell covered calls. Let’s see what happens next week.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2023 22:04:07 GMT -5
To me, I would feel safe to buy with two fists on the chart patterns alone. Even if I didn't know what company this was. The one year shows both a double bottom and what could be seen as two cup-n-handles ready to break out. Thanks for all the great charts and insights you guys. My wife thinks I'm crazy for admiring them so much but I don't care. They're beautiful. At least HERE I'm not a freak :0) If your wife thinks you're crazy, I would think you are in a normal marriage... |
|
|
|
Post by Clement on Feb 18, 2023 7:38:48 GMT -5
This lead into earnings sure doesn't seem comparable to anything we've seen in the past. Last I looked, the average revenue estimate of 6 analysts was $35M yet posts here would have us believe it could easily top $50M for the quarter. We should have a good idea after UTHR reports. If so, it's hard to imagine a dip until a few days after earnings when some amount of temporary enthusiasm always fades. Where it tops out before the dip is the really big question IMO. Boca, you know as much as anyone about this company so best of luck with your decision! Here's a different scenario. $49M total revenue for Q4. The stock drops immediately after the EC because revenue did not go through the stratosphere as speculated. After 2 or 3 days in which investors have a chance to digest the numbers, they realize it was a whopping beat and a 3rd successive QoQ of excellent growth ... with good prospects for continuing excellent growth. Then the stock gaps up to a price higher than before the EC. |
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Feb 18, 2023 8:56:11 GMT -5
That scenario works just fine. After all, it's typical that insiders know what's transpiring about a half-day before we here do then there's a brief lag of a day or two before the street catches up. After all, the street at large is not OCD, tracking Symphony scripts and drinking our Kool-Aid  I'm looking forward to seeing the volumes next week. |
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Feb 18, 2023 11:44:45 GMT -5
The chart pattern. If price makes it to $5.90- $5.92 the triangle comes into play. Less than 30 cents away. schrts.co/hJWhqwBcThis particular triangle set up. NOT an ascending triangle..... NOT a continuation pattern This triangle a six year bottoming change of trend triangle.... this one when it pops instead of making new highs, this triangle price will walk up the wedge. There has been discussion about shorts, I think any shorts that haven't covered will cover @ $6.00. Monday is presidents day, the market is closed. Charts do not make this type of up trending pattern, STRONG up trending pattern in an over all down trend with out the market participants taking it up. The market has taken this up in a down trend for reason, now the pop. I am a simpleton. plus, the wedge break target, the inverted target, the triangle target, one target leading into the other.... |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 18, 2023 14:45:43 GMT -5
“The trend is your friend”. “Buy on the rumor, and sell on fthe news”.
We’ve seen so much of the latter, that it is the trend. I don’t sell covered calls, although I’m able to if I choose. I just don’t have any shares I’m willing to gamble with. If I was “over bought” as it were (and there have been times), I would perhaps sell covered calls betting on our long experience with price movement around earnings reports.
I continue to have little faith in technicals, but by golly I’m addicted to peppy’s posts and charts nevertheless. And peppy didn’t invent this trading strategy that looks at what has happened and which tries to identify patterns from past information to predict future price behavior, so with so many adherents, there must be something to it, at least enough so to maintain enthusiasm in the methods. Hmmm, seems like a good place to apply machine learning and artificial intelligence. I know! Ask ChatGPT to review your assumptions! ;-)
|
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Feb 18, 2023 14:51:31 GMT -5
Please do ask ChatGPT and please report back. That should be fun.
|
|
|
|
Post by caesar on Feb 18, 2023 17:03:06 GMT -5
The chart pattern. If price makes it to $5.90- $5.92 the triangle comes into play. Less than 30 cents away. schrts.co/hJWhqwBcThis particular triangle set up. NOT an ascending triangle..... NOT a continuation pattern This triangle a six year bottoming change of trend triangle.... this one when it pops instead of making new highs, this triangle price will walk up the wedge. There has been discussion about shorts, I think any shorts that haven't covered will cover @ $6.00. Monday is presidents day, the market is closed. Charts do not make this type of up trending pattern, STRONG up trending pattern in an over all down trend with out the market participants taking it up. The market has taken this up in a down trend for reason, now the pop. I am a simpleton. plus, the wedge break target, the inverted target, the triangle target, one target leading into the other.... FYI - from <martinshkreli@substack.com> "LQDA worked. You can sell it. Don’t say Shkreli never did nothin’ for ya. I’m sure the company will go on to great things, but you know how we do things around here." Apparently, he and his posse have been able to close out their short position. Here is hoping for the best; a nice gap up.... |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Feb 19, 2023 17:48:08 GMT -5
Buying on the dip, as some promote, maybe the right thing to do if I had any more $$. When you’re full invested, the only way I can see to take advantage of a dip is to sell covered calls. Let’s see what happens next week. If you have a margin account you could sell some puts if the dip occurs. |
|
|
|
Post by boca1girl on Feb 19, 2023 20:30:00 GMT -5
Buying on the dip, as some promote, maybe the right thing to do if I had any more $$. When you’re full invested, the only way I can see to take advantage of a dip is to sell covered calls. Let’s see what happens next week. If you have a margin account you could sell some puts if the dip occurs. I’m pretty conservative and have only sold covered calls at the $$. My friend said I missed opportunities on all my stocks, always thinking that the stock will get away from me and none have. I keep thinking things will be different this time or the company will be purchased, etc. Puts require cash on hand to buy the shares if I get put to, $$ I don’t have. I think MNKD shares will perform like they have in the past, to sell the good news. I would buy back the calls if we see a big sell off. I would only do this on shares needed to off set capital losses that I’ve already booked in Jan 2023. |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Feb 19, 2023 21:32:07 GMT -5
boca1girlThey only require cash on hand if it's not a margin account. With margin account it only matters that you have enough buying power that you would purchase if assigned the puts. In the meantime you get the potential earnings without actually borrowing against margin and paying interest. In fact what premium you get paid can be invested in something like BIL or a money market and earn you interest. The premium for the put gives you a nice bit of downside protection before you'd actually lose money and if you get assigned you can always close out the position immediately. But that does require having a margin account, and maybe more than first level options trading approval. It has been quite lucrative for me with MNKD, and really the risk reward profile is more safe than buying shares rather than less safe. Past earnings I've sometimes sold covered calls with the runup before earnings, but this one I'd be worried we might get a real upside surprise rather than a dip. At least these dilemmas are within the context of some nice upward price momentum.
|
|
I'm looking forward to seeing the volumes next week. 
