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Post by phdedieu12 on Jan 22, 2023 12:31:49 GMT -5
What is substantial share price growth? $10-15-20??
It is a different stream because it is a different agreement. Royalties are paid out forever, manufacturing could technically stop, and btw won't be as substantial as royalties. I see how one could feel that way though. Clofazimine is next in line unless something new leapfrogs its development. Wouldn't be surprised by additional acquisitions either.
No one can do it alone, and you're only as good as your team, and this investor is very happy!
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 22, 2023 18:25:27 GMT -5
If we don’t have any more pandemics or other large scale challenges to business as usual, 2023 through 2025 can be the years where Mannkind finally rewards investors with substantial share price growth. I agree there need to be at least 4 material sources of revenue. Slide 5 from the 3Q earnings report claims 4, but I would argue it’s 3; Tyvaso DPI, Afrezza, and V-Go. I don’t think of royalties from Tyvaso DPI as a separate source from manufacturing and “collaboration”. If Tyvaso DPI were to go away, all of that goes away. It’s a 3rd source, not two sources. A fourth would be the RLS candidate if it got real. Another possible candidate is an inhalable version of the leprosy drug clofazimine. And last and probably not least is the unidentified molecule of interest to UTHR. Those are known candidates. There are possibly unknown candidates for a fourth source of revenue. I may have “what have you done for me lately” syndrome, but I don’t think this is a time to rest on laurels. Mike has proven he has an undeniable work ethic. You don’t annex a doctorate in pharma and become CEO of a billion dollar company by being lucky. Mike has provided good leadership when that was paramount to survival. I’m sure he had help. Stephen Binder and Kent Kresa (and David Kendall) are no slouches. I don’t know if being a persistent hard working CEO means a fourth revenue source is forthcoming in 2023, but this investor would really like to see that happen. I’m just a Monday morning armchair CEO, but my gut says the 4th pillar is needed for the foundation. Clement - thanks for pointing out the fourth revenue source for me on slide 5. I was focused on the product slide and only saw three. I'm with man2 on this. I don’t think of royalties from Tyvaso DPI as a separate source from Tyvaso DPI manufacturing and “collaboration”. The source is Tyvaso DPI. Maybe there is some R&D on the second UTHR molecule. Based on slide 5 and breaking out manufacturing and “collaboration” I guess we could argue there are five revenue sources by adding R&D. Concerning the 4th pillar needed for the foundation, Mike has it. Its afrezza for T2s. He just needs to figure out how he wants to sell into this market. Edelman has this video on the afrezza page. When introducing afrezza Edelman starts off saying "we don't want to spend a lot of time on this" I think he could have added - because if you use it and not all the other stuff we just spent a lot of time on - you wouldn't need any of them. tcoyd.org/sponsors-mannkind/#muoFDJfg7Nk |
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 22, 2023 20:36:46 GMT -5
I’m just a Monday morning armchair CEO, but my gut says the 4th pillar is needed for the foundation. Concerning the 4th pillar needed for the foundation, Mike has it. Its afrezza for T2s. He just needs to figure out how he wants to sell into this market. Agree it could be a pillar, but does mike want to focus on Afrezza for the T2 market, or is the plan to use V-Go for that? |
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Post by longliner on Jan 23, 2023 9:32:27 GMT -5
Thanks for the Clofazimine update MC!
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 23, 2023 13:40:55 GMT -5
Concerning the 4th pillar needed for the foundation, Mike has it. Its afrezza for T2s. He just needs to figure out how he wants to sell into this market. Agree it could be a pillar, but does mike want to focus on Afrezza for the T2 market, or is the plan to use V-Go for that? I have done my best not to mention V-Go in 2023 but you had to bring it up. How big is the market for V-Go? What is the potential market for afrezza in the T2 market even if it only captured 10%? Is afrezza cheaper to medicare patients or is V-Go? Granted, V-Go was until 1/1/2023? How much is afrezza losing on every prescription and how much is V-Go losing? Whats the breakeven for both? Hint- Mike said the other week afrezza was now breakeven. If after reviewing the market potential of both products Mike wants to focus on the T2 market with V-Go long term, thats his call and that is what he said the other week for 2023. I know Mike wants to return value to the shareholders on the $3B afrezza investment. He has tried a few things like "Seeing is Believing" only to watch them crash and burn. I think if he came up with a way to penetrate the T2 market with afrezza he would drop V-Go in a heartbeat. Robert Ford wants to penetrate the T2 market with his Libre 3. There is limited value of the CGM to T2 basal users. Unlike the T1, the T2 does not need to be too exact in their dosing and why V-Go is approved for T2s only. However, with afrezza now $35 for those on mediicare its a brand new world. Ford's CGM can get 80% of the CGM cost covered for afrezza users and afrezza can be used to "Treat to Target" which is pretty unique to afrezza and really provides value for the CGMs use. |
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Post by longliner on Jan 23, 2023 18:48:23 GMT -5
The "invest in growth" strategy will not please everyone, but, we seem to be reaping the benefits now and moving forward.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 23, 2023 19:15:09 GMT -5
What is substantial share price growth? $10-15-20?? It is a different stream because it is a different agreement. Royalties are paid out forever, manufacturing could technically stop, and btw won't be as substantial as royalties. I see how one could feel that way though. Clofazimine is next in line unless something new leapfrogs its development. Wouldn't be surprised by additional acquisitions either. No one can do it alone, and you're only as good as your team, and this investor is very happy! Back in June '06 the pps was over $100. The investors fully expected at least a 10x bagger. Why shouldn't they as Al Mann was creating the greatest advance in diabetes care since Banting and Best. At afrezza approval the pps was over $50. Today nothing is better for T1 prandial control or T2 total care than afrezza. All the concerns about exploding lungs and long term safety have been answered. TS has clearly proven with Tyvaso DPI that MNKD's DPI delivery system is in a class by itself. I would say a substantial pps growth this year would be at least half of where we were on approval. Lets say $25 which is very doable with the proper plans which are then executed. Heck, we were at 4x of that with an unproven technology and a smaller market. Good or bad, thanks to covid we now have a much bigger T2 market. |
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Post by phdedieu12 on Jan 23, 2023 19:32:53 GMT -5
The "invest in growth" strategy will not please everyone, but, we seem to be reaping the benefits now and moving forward. You can NEVER please everyone, and those benefits you mention won't be enough to another. I am pleased with the ROI on my shares! |
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 23, 2023 20:43:38 GMT -5
What is substantial share price growth? $10-15-20?? I would say a substantial pps growth this year would be at least half of where we were on approval. Lets say $25 which is very doable with the proper plans which are then executed. Heck, we were at 4x of that with an unproven technology and a smaller market. Good or bad, thanks to covid we now have a much bigger T2 market. Great point sayhey, the pandemic has helped to create a much bigger market for Afrezza. Like you say, it’s about having the proper plans that are then executed. Hopefully you are correct that $25 is very doable this year, we shall see. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 24, 2023 7:44:38 GMT -5
I would say a substantial pps growth this year would be at least half of where we were on approval. Lets say $25 which is very doable with the proper plans which are then executed. Heck, we were at 4x of that with an unproven technology and a smaller market. Good or bad, thanks to covid we now have a much bigger T2 market. Great point sayhey, the pandemic has helped to create a much bigger market for Afrezza. Like you say, it’s about having the proper plans that are then executed. Hopefully you are correct that $25 is very doable this year, we shall see. >5x this year? Hmmm. 2x this year? That is very doable. My hope is 2x per year for a few years in a row. |
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Post by dh4mizzou on Jan 24, 2023 8:51:58 GMT -5
prcgorman2,
Can we compromise? How about 5x THIS year and then 2x each year for 3-4 years?
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 24, 2023 9:43:09 GMT -5
prcgorman2, Can we compromise? How about 5x THIS year and then 2x each year for 3-4 years? Deal! That would put us back on track. Share price $200 by 2026. Then a thread like this would be appropriate! 😄 |
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Post by longliner on Jan 24, 2023 10:59:29 GMT -5
Thanks for the PR's Mike. Let's keep rolling them out, right through a blowout earnings call!
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 24, 2023 11:12:36 GMT -5
prcgorman2, Can we compromise? How about 5x THIS year and then 2x each year for 3-4 years? Deal! That would put us back on track. Share price $200 by 2026. Then a thread like this would be appropriate! 😄 This thread is appropriate now even if 5x share price increase this year doesn't happen. Given the negative attention naked shorting is getting (FINALLY) and activist investing, it would be awesome if we miss 5x by a factor of 2 (too low!).  |
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Post by cretin11 on Jan 24, 2023 11:35:25 GMT -5
Deal! That would put us back on track. Share price $200 by 2026. Then a thread like this would be appropriate! 😄 Given the negative attention naked shorting is getting (FINALLY) and activist investing, it would be awesome if we miss 5x by a factor of 2 (too low!). A ten bagger? Yes, that puts us back at $50 and would indeed be awesome by year end. If attending to the naked shorting will bring us that result, there will be plenty of "appreciation" then (for our shares and our ceo). Make it happen mike! |
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