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Post by markado on Apr 10, 2023 11:28:46 GMT -5
I'm getting a little tired of watching 50,000+ shares flounder in a void of info from MNKD leadership. You have to have regular PR's scheduled and delivered between quarterly financials and other industry conferences, etc. You have to control your narrative and offer info to the market, not make them pull your teeth to get it.
So, downsides on a UTHR takeover? Anyone? Truly looking for informed insight or others'experience/opinion, here. I'm not going anywhere, but certainly wish the stock would.
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Post by mymann on Apr 10, 2023 11:35:44 GMT -5
Another buying opportunity. How about another selling opportunity? Next year, 2024 profitable year.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Apr 10, 2023 11:37:52 GMT -5
Depends on the deal. The market is poop right now, and MNKD is manipulated. The difference from the past is the market is poop.
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Post by Thundersnow on Apr 10, 2023 11:50:53 GMT -5
I'm getting a little tired of watching 50,000+ shares flounder in a void of info from MNKD leadership. You have to have regular PR's scheduled and delivered between quarterly financials and other industry conferences, etc. You have to control your narrative and offer info to the market, not make them pull your teeth to get it. So, downsides on a UTHR takeover? Anyone? Truly looking for informed insight or others'experience/opinion, here. I'm not going anywhere, but certainly wish the stock would. The downside is UTHR could offer $6 a share in a CASH TENDER OFFER. That would suck!! I don't see UTHR buying MNKD. If they wanted MNKD they could have bought it when they signed the partnership when the MC was $200M. Plus this is not in UTHR's core business strategy. They are focused on their organ biz and much of their resources will go towards it. |
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Post by markado on Apr 10, 2023 12:32:37 GMT -5
How about $2B for 51% in a 1 for 15 UTHR for MNKD shares - sets the floor at $15 per share, doesn't it? It's not like Martine doesn't understand the tech or business model and couldn't provide value adding marching orders post-acquisition...
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Post by awesomo on Apr 10, 2023 12:59:34 GMT -5
How about $2B for 51% in a 1 for 15 UTHR for MNKD shares - sets the floor at $15 per share, doesn't it? It's not like Martine doesn't understand the tech or business model and couldn't provide value adding marching orders post-acquisition... UTHR is not going to consider an acquisition for 3.5x the market cap. |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 10, 2023 13:56:51 GMT -5
Depends on the deal. The market is poop right now, and MNKD is manipulated. The difference from the past is the market is poop. I don't think MNKD is being manipulated (there are easier target in the micro-caps) but it is likely heavily influenced by the UTHR share price. If you look at the two charts you can see the relationship. I think that the MNKD stock is being treated as a proxy for UTHR with a higher beta. Fundamentally the profitability of MNKD is tied up in UTHR until either Afrezza becomes profitable, or another pharma signs up like UTHR for delivery. The upside to this is that if UTHR does well I would expect MNKD to also rise and they have the market to themselves for another 12 to 18 months. |
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Post by cretin11 on Apr 10, 2023 14:43:50 GMT -5
Depends on the deal. The market is poop right now, and MNKD is manipulated. The difference from the past is the market is poop. I don't think MNKD is being manipulated Unpopular opinion around these parts. I agree with you (no coincidence). But for those who believe in that manipulation, allegedly happening for nearly a decade, I wonder what they think the share price would be but for that purported issue. No UTHR takeover will occur IMO. I’d be in favor of it, unless MNKD shows it can thrive in any lane on its own. But doesn’t make sense that UTHR would have interest, unless the premium were very modest. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 10, 2023 15:06:56 GMT -5
IMO, every BP eventually wants total control of their supply chain of a successful drug, especially when going global. It's doubtful UTHR will ever desire to takeover MNKD in it's entirety as that's not their lane. Nor do I believe MNKDs controlling shareholders would accept it. I do however expect UTHR to make an offer for the pulmonary indication sector within MNKD versus paying sizeable and growing royalties year after year. When would be anybody's guess; this year, three years, five years? Frankly, I'm more interested in hearing an update about UTHR's next MNKD molecule partnership versus speculation of M&As...though the two might just be interrelated  |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 10, 2023 15:26:41 GMT -5
How about $2B for 51% in a 1 for 15 UTHR for MNKD shares - sets the floor at $15 per share, doesn't it? It's not like Martine doesn't understand the tech or business model and couldn't provide value adding marching orders post-acquisition... This would never happen. Funding round pricing models in unlisted companies are largely a matter of convincing people what the speculative valuation will be at IPO based on partial information. A listed company has it's stock price which is the agreed value of the company - it's not speculative in the same way. If Martine attempted to buy 51% of the company for 3x the share price she would simply be overpaying 3x and not raising the valuation and the share price would collapse back immediately UTHR stopped buying (anyway, the shareholders would never allow it.) |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Apr 10, 2023 15:43:12 GMT -5
I don't think MNKD is being manipulated Unpopular opinion around these parts. I agree with you (no coincidence). But for those who believe in that manipulation, allegedly happening for nearly a decade, I wonder what they think the share price would be but for that purported issue. No UTHR takeover will occur IMO. I’d be in favor of it, unless MNKD shows it can thrive in any lane on its own. But doesn’t make sense that UTHR would have interest, unless the premium were very modest. The opinion that MNKD is not manipulated is not unpopular (with me anyway). It's just that I'm not convinced it's true. The reason is because of all of the fines, books, and other media that describes how stock prices are often manipulated, and not just GME and AMC. Do a Google search for "books on stock price manipulation" and see what pops up. So yeah, you and others saying "MNKD is not manipulated" doesn't convince me. |
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Post by awesomo on Apr 10, 2023 16:08:48 GMT -5
Unpopular opinion around these parts. I agree with you (no coincidence). But for those who believe in that manipulation, allegedly happening for nearly a decade, I wonder what they think the share price would be but for that purported issue. No UTHR takeover will occur IMO. I’d be in favor of it, unless MNKD shows it can thrive in any lane on its own. But doesn’t make sense that UTHR would have interest, unless the premium were very modest. The opinion that MNKD is not manipulated is not unpopular (with me anyway). It's just that I'm not convinced it's true. The reason is because of all of the fines, books, and other media that describes how stock prices are often manipulated, and not just GME and AMC. Do a Google search for "books on stock price manipulation" and see what pops up. So yeah, you and others saying "MNKD is not manipulated" doesn't convince me. I think every equity is manipulated in a way because let’s face it, the ones with money are in control and the retail investors just have to go along for the ride. I don’t think MannKind is being specifically targeted more than others anymore though. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Apr 10, 2023 16:11:56 GMT -5
The opinion that MNKD is not manipulated is not unpopular (with me anyway). It's just that I'm not convinced it's true. The reason is because of all of the fines, books, and other media that describes how stock prices are often manipulated, and not just GME and AMC. Do a Google search for "books on stock price manipulation" and see what pops up. So yeah, you and others saying "MNKD is not manipulated" doesn't convince me. I think every equity is manipulated in a way because let’s face it, the ones with money are in control and the retail investors just have to go along for the ride. I don’t think MannKind is being specifically targeted more than others anymore though. I very much want to agree with you, but just can't share your confidence (yet). |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 10, 2023 18:28:48 GMT -5
IMO, every BP eventually wants total control of their supply chain of a successful drug, especially when going global. It's doubtful UTHR will ever desire to takeover MNKD in it's entirety as that's not their lane. Nor do I believe MNKDs controlling shareholders would accept it. I do however expect UTHR to make an offer for the pulmonary indication sector within MNKD versus paying sizeable and growing royalties year after year. When would be anybody's guess; this year, three years, five years? Frankly, I'm more interested in hearing an update about UTHR's next MNKD molecule partnership versus speculation of M&As...though the two might just be interrelated UTHR can have control of their supply chain any time they want. All they have to do is build the manufacturing plant and MNKD have agreed to help them do this on demand. Remember that the original idea was that UTHR would do the manufacturing post launch and it was only later that MNKD took over that role. This is a high value/low volume drug so having MNKD manufacture it rather than incurring the cost building a production line makes perfect sense - then buying MNKD rather negates that! |
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Post by akemp3000 on Apr 10, 2023 21:41:21 GMT -5
Understood but paying anything, especially double digit royalties in perpetuity, is not total control. It's fine to have a different opinion.
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