2nd Quarter Earnings

[prcgorman2]

Aug 4, 2023 22:25:23 GMT -5 mymann said:

We all got excited about UTHR Tyvaso DPI getting FDA approval and the mnkd curse made it delay 6 months. It's will be exciting to see high revenue but sp is not going anywhere maybe back down to 4.

Do you believe in curses?  Better watch out then.  

No curse needed for UTHR to have had their plans disrupted by a competitor hiding behind a “citizen’s petition” that caused the delay.  In this case, MNKD may have contributed to the delay because they supplied over 500 pages of data to the FDA which successfully resulted in the dismissal of the claims in the petition, but it gave the FDA lawyer(s) tasked with providing a ruling more work to evaluate it all.

[BD]

I cannot in any way fault, object, or particularly mind a pessimistic outlook on MNKD. I actually rather have one myself. But I'm still invested.
It's a love-hate relationship.
There's room for so many valid feelings...

[ptass]

I've always wondered what the weekly afrezza sales ($) needs to be to break even on afrezza alone. Right now it seems like the majority of the tyvaso dpi profits are being eaten up by the afrezza shortfall. My shot in the dark estimate is around $3m in weekly afrezza sales. Any other guesses?

[letitride]

Six additional months of production and still were working around the clock to catch up with demand id say were going to need another facility but thats already in the works. And when that second molecule is called for what kind a curse will be cast then.

[mymann]

Second molecule, it was going to be revealed after Tyvaso DPI FDA approval. We still don't know what exactly the molecule is and who started that rumor UTHR is interested in Second molecule partnership?

[prcgorman2]

LOL. Do some Google searches on the MNKD/UTHR announcement to develop TreT (MannKind’s Phase1 Treprostinil on TechnoSphere) and you will find the 2nd molecule was in the agreement as a potential future development. Its never been named and its been long enough to be skeptical the development will happen, but to call it a “rumor” is just ignorant.

[LongMNKD]

I've been reviewing UTHR's call and MNKD's last call and it just gets me more excited.

• MNKD increased production capacity 250% in the quarter.
• 200-240m annualy per 10k tyvaso patients, thats 50-60m quarterly per 10k patients. 200,000,000rev / 10,000patients = 20,000 annualy per patient /4 = 5,000 quarterly per patient for MNKD
• Last quarter revenue was 12m Royalties + 11m colllab & Service = 23m total? That puts us at ~4,600 patients.
  
• UTHR claimed ~8000 tyvaso patients figuring 70% of them are on DPI thats 5,600 DPI patients, which is roughly 28m rev for MNKD. That puts us on track for 45m total rev this quarter if other numbers stay the same.

Some other thoughts...

PH-ILD + PAH market size estimated 75k patients! What % market share does Tyvaso expect to have?
IPF market size is 100k patients. Over double market increase!

[dh4mizzou]

Not to be a party pooper but on first bullet point I believe MNKD increased "capacity" by 250%.

Of course they must increase capacity before they can increase production.

So there's that.

[LongMNKD]

thanks for pointing that out - fixed.

speaking of capacity, do we know what capacity is/was before the increase?

[letitride]

Aug 5, 2023 13:29:01 GMT -5 LongMNKD said:

thanks for pointing that out - fixed.

speaking of capacity, do we know what capacity is/was before the increase?

 In the interest of keeping it simple our capacity in Qtr1  was 23 mill in revenue. Im going with a new capacity of 80 million in revenue a Qtr based on that 250% boost. 

[LongMNKD]

Aug 5, 2023 15:40:14 GMT -5 letitride said:

Aug 5, 2023 13:29:01 GMT -5 LongMNKD said:

thanks for pointing that out - fixed.

speaking of capacity, do we know what capacity is/was before the increase?

 In the interest of keeping it simple our capacity in Qtr1  was 23 mill in revenue. Im going with a new capacity of 80 million in revenue a Qtr based on that 250% boost. 

That's a great way to look at it! Obviously they see us hitting this capacity limit and exceeding it by 2024, hence the reason for further improved capacity.

MNKD is set to have capacity for 25,000 patients in 1h2024, and that capacity is expected to be hit and exceeded as well hence UTHR also building their own production facility.

25,000 patients at 5k/patient = 125m quarterly!

[letitride]

Aug 5, 2023 18:08:10 GMT -5 LongMNKD said:

Aug 5, 2023 15:40:14 GMT -5 letitride said:

 In the interest of keeping it simple our capacity in Qtr1  was 23 mill in revenue. Im going with a new capacity of 80 million in revenue a Qtr based on that 250% boost. 

That's a great way to look at it! Obviously they see us hitting this capacity limit and exceeding it by 2024, hence the reason for further improved capacity.

MNKD is set to have capacity for 25,000 patients in 1h2024, and that capacity is expected to be hit and exceeded as well hence UTHR also building their own production facility.

25,000 patients at 5k/patient = 125m quarterly!

   Im going to need a bigger calculator. I like it!

[runner]

Thanks for the best laugh of the day, Let it Ride!

[bones1026]

Is it possible they release numbers pre market with conf call for 5, or do they have to release after 4pm?

[tarheelblue004]

I was thinking the same thing. If it’s really really really good, maybe they release prior to the opening bell and let the market go wild through the day until earnings. The odds are definitely that they wait until market close to release earnings 30 min before the Q2 call.

I am forecasting $51m - $55m revenue led by Tyvaso due to UT’s $13m QoQ increase in CoG. Let’s see if that is in any way realistic, and if so, whether it constitutes really really really good or just really really good enough to release at market close tomorrow