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Post by bthomas55ep on Jun 18, 2023 17:56:40 GMT -5
While it doesn't appear there will be very much Afrezza revenue growth from Q1 2023 to Q2 2023, I was wondering if we have enough insight into Tyvaso DPI revenue growth between the quarters to potentially achieve a $50 Million Quarter ($200 Million run rate)?
I suppose because of the size of the UTHR unrecognized revenue at the end of Q1 ($46 Million I think), theoretically, Mannkind could have done some of the necessary things needed to recognize more of that revenue to push the company reporting through that milestone. While only three weeks from the time the newly expanded manufacturing capacity will transpire until the end of the 2nd quarter, maybe they are using that bandwidth to pump additional Tyvaso DPI into the channel?
Anybody have a feel for how fast Tyvaso DPI is expanding to the point the company can push through $50M this quarter (officially, I think Q1 was $40.6 Million).
Thanks in advance. Happy Father's Day for you Dad's out there. GLTA.
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Post by ronw77077 on Jun 19, 2023 10:02:31 GMT -5
The best thought out projection we have seen, from parrerob on May 12 was for Q2 revenue of $42.8 M including DPI royalties of $13.8 m. The only data point worth disputing in his forecast is the DPI royalty.
In Q1 UT reported $238.4 million in Tyvaso sales. From that, MNKD received 11.7 million in royalties. If we assume royalties are 10%, then DPI sales were $117 million or 49% of total Tyvaso sales of $238.4 million.
Looking back, we know that Q3 (2022) Tyvaso sales were $257.7 million, which then declined in Q4 for the somewhat obtuse reasons of building inventories, unanticipated changes in demand for DPI vs. the nebulizer version of Tyvaso, etc. The BIG question is what will DPI sales be in Q2.
Since we don’t have any current information about DPI sales, let me add some “historical” commentary from UT to consider.
UT has made a number of strong statements about future DPI sales:
The uptake of DPI patients has been dramatic.
January 2023 prescription levels are very strong.
Of the 30,000 ILD patients in the U.S. only 10% are now being treated by DPI.
UT foresees an increase to 20,000 Tyvaso patients in eighteen months (from 6,000 at year end 2022).
“We are tremendously proud of reaching our goal of doubling the number of patients on Tyvaso therapy since the approval of Tyvaso for PH-ILD in early 2021. We are confident in our ability to double our annual run rate from approximately $2 billion today to $4 billion by the end of 2025.” (Note -Tyvaso was about $1 billion of the $2 billion today and it is the only UT drug experiencing any meaningful growth).
Now for the big assumptions:
Tyvaso sales DPI Sales % Royalties Q2 Revenue (vs. parrerob’s $13.8 M)
$300 M 55% $16.5 M $45.5 M
$300 M 60% $18.0 M $47.0 M
Of course, we can make an infinite number of guesses as to total Tyvaso sales and DPI sales.
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Post by ptass on Jun 19, 2023 10:56:46 GMT -5
I suspect the Q2 revenue will be very close to Q1 due to production constraints. Manufacturing capacity was expanded in June but likely too late for a significant Q2 impact.
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Post by bthomas55ep on Jun 19, 2023 13:06:15 GMT -5
I suspect the Q2 revenue will be very close to Q1 due to production constraints. Manufacturing capacity was expanded in June but likely too late for a significant Q2 impact. Hopefully the Tyvaso DPI uptake surprises and they don't have to do any accounting tricks. I feel like as opposed to seeing the revenue flatline, in order to see at least 10% quarter over quarter growth (which will need to be approx $45 Million), you've got to feel like Binder finds some way to recognize some more of that deferred revenue if it's needed to keep the growth story in tact? Unless there was a whole lot of other announcements, I believe a flat quarter would treat the share price harshly. |
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Post by Clement on Jun 20, 2023 7:58:26 GMT -5
I expect high PAP utilization to affect Q2 numbers. High PAP utilization is a great long-term story but not a great short-term story. That's why I think parrerob's conservative estimate for Q2 is still good.
PAP is UTHR's Patient Assistance Program for T-DPI.
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Post by Clement on Jun 20, 2023 8:30:19 GMT -5
Re: MNKD's deferred revenue
Above, bthomas said,
"Mannkind could have done some of the necessary things needed to recognize more of that revenue to push the company reporting through that milestone."
To be specific, MNKD's recent improvements in manufacturing of T-DPI (officially announced with the governor's visit) might qualify for recognition of some amount of deferred revenue. That could bump up the Collaboration and Services revenues a bit.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jun 20, 2023 9:53:22 GMT -5
I suspect the Q2 revenue will be very close to Q1 due to production constraints. Manufacturing capacity was expanded in June but likely too late for a significant Q2 impact. I can't tell if there was a constraint on revenue based on the constraints that were on manufacturing up until MNKD recently doubled (is my memory) overall capacity (by doubling "drying" function). Still looking forward to whatever the additional manufacturing capacity might have been able to contribute to the manufacturing revenue.
That said, MNKD (can't remember if it was Binder or MC) predicted manufacturing revenue would be relatively flat on an on-going basis, so the main focus remains on UTHR sales of Tyvaso DPI for material improvement in royalties revenue. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 20, 2023 12:36:53 GMT -5
If I gave you all a horse ... what would you do first  NEVER LOOK A GIFT HORSE IN THE MOUTH !!! BUY ALL THE CHEAP SHARES YOU CAN !!! But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Jul 10, 2023 19:24:19 GMT -5
One month until Q2 earnings, or as I like to call it, the quarterly Super Bowl  Wall Street is looking for $42M after last quarter’s $40M. At the beginning of June we tripled Tyvaso DPI production. If June sales are 3x May (and April) sales and no other monthly growth in Tyvaso DPI, Q2 royalties would be 1.67x Q1 royalties or ~$19M, a $7.7M increase. That would take us to $48M in Q2 revenue, plus or minus, if no growth in other revenue stream. It could also bring us to the penny’s edge (new phrase) of breakeven. And a 15% beat of analyst revenue targets. Then there is Q3. With 3x as much Tyvaso DPI production as Q1, royalty revenue can be $30M+, growth of $12M QoQ, and likely positive earnings for the first time ever. Other thoughts? |
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Post by runner on Jul 10, 2023 20:53:47 GMT -5
One month until Q2 earnings, or as I like to call it, the quarterly Super Bowl Wall Street is looking for $42M after last quarter’s $40M. At the beginning of June we tripled Tyvaso DPI production. If June sales are 3x May (and April) sales and no other monthly growth in Tyvaso DPI, Q2 royalties could be 1.67x Q1 royalties or ~$19M, a $7.7M increase. That would take us to $48M in Q2 revenue, plus or minus, if no growth in other revenue stream. It could also bring us to the penny’s edge (new phrase) of breakeven. And a 15% beat of analyst revenue targets. Then there is Q3. With 3x as much Tyvaso DPI production as Q1, royalty revenue can be $30M+, growth of $12M QoQ, and likely positive earnings for the first time ever. Other thoughts? I'll raise a glass to likely positive earnings for the first time ever! |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 10, 2023 21:17:58 GMT -5
One month until Q2 earnings, or as I like to call it, the quarterly Super Bowl Wall Street is looking for $42M after last quarter’s $40M. At the beginning of June we tripled Tyvaso DPI production. If June sales are 3x May (and April) sales and no other monthly growth in Tyvaso DPI, Q2 royalties could be 1.67x Q1 royalties or ~$19M, a $7.7M increase. That would take us to $48M in Q2 revenue, plus or minus, if no growth in other revenue stream. It could also bring us to the penny’s edge (new phrase) of breakeven. And a 15% beat of analyst revenue targets. Then there is Q3. With 3x as much Tyvaso DPI production as Q1, royalty revenue can be $30M+, growth of $12M QoQ, and likely positive earnings for the first time ever. Other thoughts? Good thoughts well reasoned. I could be wrong but I do not assume 3x manufacturing is equal to 3x royalties. |
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Post by Clement on Jul 11, 2023 12:16:00 GMT -5
Q2 2022 UTHR earnings call was on Aug 3. Soon, we'll find out about Tyvaso revenues and PAP utilization. We will then apply our favorite percentages to calculate TDPI sales and finally royalties to MNKD.
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Post by Clement on Jul 16, 2023 21:40:45 GMT -5
Q2 2022 UTHR earnings call was on Aug 3. Soon, we'll find out about Tyvaso revenues and PAP utilization. We will then apply our favorite percentages to calculate TDPI sales and finally royalties to MNKD. only 14 business days until Aug 3. |
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Post by Clement on Jul 20, 2023 8:46:33 GMT -5
Q2 2022 UTHR earnings call was on Aug 3. Soon, we'll find out about Tyvaso revenues and PAP utilization. We will then apply our favorite percentages to calculate TDPI sales and finally royalties to MNKD. only 14 business days until Aug 3. Now Yahoo Finance says 12 days to UTHR earnings (days , not business days). Would that be Tuesday, Aug2? |
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Post by akemp3000 on Jul 20, 2023 8:59:48 GMT -5
That would be good but IMO Yahoo is not known for accuracy.
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Wall Street is looking for $42M after last quarter’s $40M. 