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Post by standup on Nov 8, 2023 10:37:03 GMT -5
No offense, but that's a recipe for missing the boat. Most professional investors don't feel they have to try to catch every single boat... and waiting for one particular one with dead money for years on end simply isn't in the smart money play book. I've been invested in MNKD since before the CRL.. not wanting to miss the boat. And while I now have made some overall profit, if I were to calculate an annual rate of return it would be pretty awful, trailing the dividend rate of many stable blue chips, and trailing the total S&P returns by a mile. Still waiting for the dreamboat to get out of the harbor. Unless Mike's comment about next few quarters turns out to be under promise and significantly over deliver, there isn't going to be any buying excitement near term, IMHO. And there is no track record to make investors feel Mike is an under promise over deliver CEO. I hear you, brother, but being cash flow positive for 2 quarters now and revenue growing the fact that profit may swing between positive and negative for a few quarters isn't the deal breaker. I won't get caught up in the past. The past was way too cluttered with issues but now the clarity going forward is much better.
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Nov 8, 2023 10:38:18 GMT -5
No offense, but that's a recipe for missing the boat. Most professional investors don't feel they have to try to catch every single boat... and waiting for one particular one with dead money for years on end simply isn't in the smart money play book. I've been invested in MNKD since before the CRL.. not wanting to miss the boat. And while I now have made some overall profit, if I were to calculate an annual rate of return it would be pretty awful, trailing the dividend rate of many stable blue chips, and trailing the total S&P returns by a mile. Still waiting for the dreamboat to get out of the harbor. Unless Mike's comment about next few quarters turns out to be under promise and significantly over deliver, there isn't going to be any buying excitement near term, IMHO. And there is no track record to make investors feel Mike is an under promise over deliver CEO. I had the same reaction when I heard the comms around hovering around break even for several quarters, I do think that will stem the tide for investors rushing into our stock |
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Post by ktim on Nov 8, 2023 10:50:27 GMT -5
standupDo you have clarity about what caused the growth in Tyvaso DPI to slow so much? For me, the picture for revenue growth became much less clear than I thought it was 2 weeks ago.
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Post by standup on Nov 8, 2023 11:05:49 GMT -5
standup Do you have clarity about what caused the growth in Tyvaso DPI to slow so much? For me, the picture for revenue growth became much less clear than I thought it was 2 weeks ago. Wasn't it explained during the conference call? Maybe, I misunderstood the chart and description. |
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Post by standup on Nov 8, 2023 11:10:56 GMT -5
standup Do you have clarity about what caused the growth in Tyvaso DPI to slow so much? For me, the picture for revenue growth became much less clear than I thought it was 2 weeks ago. Wasn't it explained during the conference call? Maybe, I misunderstood the chart and description. There was a portion of the Q2 revenue that was for stocking. Once that is factored out and only the sell through is analyzed there is no slow down in revenue growth. |
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Post by ktim on Nov 8, 2023 11:18:35 GMT -5
Wasn't it explained during the conference call? Maybe, I misunderstood the chart and description. There was a portion of the Q2 revenue that was for stocking. Once that is factored out and only the sell through is analyzed there is no slow down in revenue growth. Thanks, I've not had time to dig into things myself. So what is the actual quarter on quarter percentage growth expected in Tyvaso DPI patient revenue? |
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Post by standup on Nov 8, 2023 11:24:31 GMT -5
There was a portion of the Q2 revenue that was for stocking. Once that is factored out and only the sell through is analyzed there is no slow down in revenue growth. Thanks, I've not had time to dig into things myself. So what is the actual quarter on quarter percentage growth expected in Tyvaso DPI patient revenue? MNKD mentioned $30M in Q2 for stocking per UTHR earnings call. That would mean $3M out of the $49M in Q2 leaving Q1 at $41M, Q2 at $46M and Q3 at $51M. Doesn't appear to be a slowdown to me. I realize I am looking at total revenue but the changes in the other items are relatively flat.
Looking at just DPI Q1 @ $11.7M, Q2 @ $16M and Q3 @ $20.2M - Still pretty good growth quarter on quarter.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 8, 2023 11:35:13 GMT -5
Here is my favorite part of the call! I'm glad he acknowledged the share price just to show he is aware and would like to see it higher.
Agree it was good to hear that acknowledgement/apology. It must be asked if there's anything to it more than lip service. Hard to really evaluate that. In certain years, the CEO/exec "compensation formula" has included a sizable bonus multiplier to account for increase in share price during the previous year. They were handsomely rewarded then, so I'm curious to see if there's any recognition of the past three years of extremely disappointing share price stagnation when it comes to the upcoming exec comp/bonus formula. Am i missing any other way to fairly evaluate his verbal acknowledgement of our crappy share price action? |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 8, 2023 12:00:20 GMT -5
From an accounting perspective, I doubt executive compensation is “material”, and I also assume the compensation formula is not public. I understand that incentives ought to be commensurate with performance, but at this early stage of growing the sources of revenue, I don’t assume UTHR’s ability to sell Tyvaso is part of the MNKD compensation calculations. Instead, I assume it’s more about what is accomplished with the Insulin Business Unit (probably not a big compensation benefit) and with meeting Tyvaso manufacturing and delivery commitments, but I’m hopeful it also has a sizerable focus on bringing one or both of clofazamine and nintedanib to market in the next couple of years.
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Post by ktim on Nov 8, 2023 12:00:49 GMT -5
Thanks, I've not had time to dig into things myself. So what is the actual quarter on quarter percentage growth expected in Tyvaso DPI patient revenue? MNKD mentioned $30M in Q2 for stocking per UTHR earnings call. That would mean $3M out of the $49M in Q2 leaving Q1 at $41M, Q2 at $46M and Q3 at $51M. Doesn't appear to be a slowdown to me. I realize I am looking at total revenue but the changes in the other items are relatively flat.
Looking at just DPI Q1 @ $11.7M, Q2 @ $16M and Q3 @ $20.2M - Still pretty good growth quarter on quarter.
So you're saying Q2 Tyvaso royalties to MNKD of $19.055M should be adjusted down by $3M. So our growth in royalty revenue based on end patient sell through should average $4M/qtr moving forward? If that analysis is correct it does paint a better picture. So MNKD gets paid the royalties even on product used to build stock with distributors/pharmacies? If so, my understanding of that was incorrect. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 8, 2023 12:03:03 GMT -5
My understanding was building stock was part of the royalties. Hopefully somebody has a pointer to language that confirms that.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 8, 2023 12:19:01 GMT -5
From an accounting perspective, I doubt executive compensation is “material”, and I also assume the compensation formula is not public. I understand that incentives ought to be commensurate with performance, but at this early stage of growing the sources of revenue, I don’t assume UTHR’s ability to sell Tyvaso is part of the MNKD compensation calculations. Instead, I assume it’s more about what is accomplished with the Insulin Business Unit (probably not a big compensation benefit) and with meeting Tyvaso manufacturing and delivery commitments, but I’m hopeful it also has a sizerable focus on bringing one or both of clofazamine and nintedanib to market in the next couple of years. The comp formula is public. We've been pointed to it in the past, i wanna say in annual reports maybe. Somebody here will know. But the formula has changed year to year, one might say "conveniently" to fit how certain metrics looked that year. I don't know how that process works but it has been eye opening to read these and i'm curious to see what they come up with for 2023. |
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Post by standup on Nov 8, 2023 12:19:40 GMT -5
MNKD mentioned $30M in Q2 for stocking per UTHR earnings call. That would mean $3M out of the $49M in Q2 leaving Q1 at $41M, Q2 at $46M and Q3 at $51M. Doesn't appear to be a slowdown to me. I realize I am looking at total revenue but the changes in the other items are relatively flat.
Looking at just DPI Q1 @ $11.7M, Q2 @ $16M and Q3 @ $20.2M - Still pretty good growth quarter on quarter.
So you're saying Q2 Tyvaso royalties to MNKD of $19.055M should be adjusted down by $3M. So our growth in royalty revenue based on end patient sell through should average $4M/qtr moving forward? If that analysis is correct it does paint a better picture. So MNKD gets paid the royalties even on product used to build stock with distributors/pharmacies? If so, my understanding of that was incorrect. They use the term, "Specialty Pharmacy Stocking." |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 8, 2023 12:20:07 GMT -5
My understanding was building stock was part of the royalties. Hopefully somebody has a pointer to language that confirms that. I think that's true, but don't have the language handy. |
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Post by Clement on Nov 8, 2023 12:47:25 GMT -5
My understanding was building stock was part of the royalties. Hopefully somebody has a pointer to language that confirms that. Somebody posted on this about 2 weeks ago and said it's in UTHR's 10K. Found it. It was ronw. See the post at mnkd.proboards.com/post/256882/thread |
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