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Post by porkini on Nov 8, 2023 13:37:16 GMT -5
From an accounting perspective, I doubt executive compensation is “material”, and I also assume the compensation formula is not public. I understand that incentives ought to be commensurate with performance, but at this early stage of growing the sources of revenue, I don’t assume UTHR’s ability to sell Tyvaso is part of the MNKD compensation calculations. Instead, I assume it’s more about what is accomplished with the Insulin Business Unit (probably not a big compensation benefit) and with meeting Tyvaso manufacturing and delivery commitments, but I’m hopeful it also has a sizerable focus on bringing one or both of clofazamine and nintedanib to market in the next couple of years. The comp formula is public. We've been pointed to it in the past, i wanna say in annual reports maybe. Somebody here will know. But the formula has changed year to year, one might say "conveniently" to fit how certain metrics looked that year. I don't know how that process works but it has been eye opening to read these and i'm curious to see what they come up with for 2023. Shareholder's advisory vote annually suggests that shareholders approve even if they do not disclose the formula for the vote. Otherwise, shareholders would vote against the proposal, right? investors.mannkindcorp.com/node/18901/html#proposal6 |
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rebby
Researcher
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Post by rebby on Nov 8, 2023 13:42:21 GMT -5
Regarding the stock price…unless you want to gnash teeth for the next 6-9 months, set your expectations that there will not be significant appreciation.
The communication was made that we will be around break even for the next few quarters. Short term, this will keep the stock price suppressed while we fund pipeline development. I do believe they are looking to under commit and over deliver, which could create an opportunity for explosive SP growth in a couple of quarters as revenue continues and pipeline opportunities near revenue/profitability realization.
Personally, I do think it’s a great opportunity to build a strong position if you plan to be a long. Will I be adding to my portfolio? No, because I already have an intentionally large position and yes I’ve been waiting for 8-9 years at this point . The ER was great news and we are on a tremendous path…relax and enjoy the ride.
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Post by mcbone on Nov 8, 2023 14:09:08 GMT -5
Thanks, I've not had time to dig into things myself. So what is the actual quarter on quarter percentage growth expected in Tyvaso DPI patient revenue? MNKD mentioned $30M in Q2 for stocking per UTHR earnings call. That would mean $3M out of the $49M in Q2 leaving Q1 at $41M, Q2 at $46M and Q3 at $51M. Doesn't appear to be a slowdown to me. I realize I am looking at total revenue but the changes in the other items are relatively flat.
Looking at just DPI Q1 @ $11.7M, Q2 @ $16M and Q3 @ $20.2M - Still pretty good growth quarter on quarter.
Thank you for that post, standup. I think you're saying that the increase in revenues (5.94% Q/Q as reported by UTHR) and the increase in royalties (6.1% Q/Q as reported by MNKD) are lower than the actual increase in patient demand/prescriptions due to some revenues/royalties for building inventory being booked in Q2, and the inventory building does not reflect actual delivery and sale to patients. Is there a building of inventory adjustment for 3rd qtr, too? |
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Post by ktim on Nov 8, 2023 14:13:33 GMT -5
My understanding was building stock was part of the royalties. Hopefully somebody has a pointer to language that confirms that. Somebody posted on this about 2 weeks ago and said it's in UTHR's 10K. Found it. It was ronw. See the post at mnkd.proboards.com/post/256882/threadThank you! I'd missed that post. That does clarify that distributor/pharmacy stocking would indeed distort the royalty payments to MNKD. I am less disappointed now  Of course in hindsight I was too happy last earnings, lol Oh well, guess I was a bit premature in my holdings increase this past quarter. Hopefully no one remembers I had predicted we'd hit $6 in run up to Q3 earnings. Now I'm likely to have a reputation for irrational exuberance. Fortunately, I assume irrational exuberance is graded on a very steep curve here, though based on that share price prediction I feel I deserve at least a C+ for irrational exuberance. |
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Post by RainbowUnicorn on Nov 8, 2023 15:21:39 GMT -5
Damn the torpedoes... added 8000 shares at $3.75. David Dreman be my Sensei  Changing my tune today - Mayday, Mayday I've been shot down over stormy sea Well, I feel like I'm driftin' away Can't seem to get a grip on me Now I can't even try I'm so damn lonely And ain't even high I hate to go home alone But what else is new I'm so damn lonely...    |
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Post by standup on Nov 8, 2023 15:23:47 GMT -5
MNKD mentioned $30M in Q2 for stocking per UTHR earnings call. That would mean $3M out of the $49M in Q2 leaving Q1 at $41M, Q2 at $46M and Q3 at $51M. Doesn't appear to be a slowdown to me. I realize I am looking at total revenue but the changes in the other items are relatively flat.
Looking at just DPI Q1 @ $11.7M, Q2 @ $16M and Q3 @ $20.2M - Still pretty good growth quarter on quarter.
Thank you for that post, standup. I think you're saying that the increase in revenues (5.94% Q/Q as reported by UTHR) and the increase in royalties (6.1% Q/Q as reported by MNKD) are lower than the actual increase in patient demand/prescriptions due to some revenues/royalties for building inventory being booked in Q2, and the inventory building does not reflect actual delivery and sale to patients. Is there a building of inventory adjustment for 3rd qtr, too? Supposedly, Q3 was all sell through. Per MNKD and UTHR. |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 8, 2023 15:43:55 GMT -5
The comp formula is public. We've been pointed to it in the past, i wanna say in annual reports maybe. Somebody here will know. But the formula has changed year to year, one might say "conveniently" to fit how certain metrics looked that year. I don't know how that process works but it has been eye opening to read these and i'm curious to see what they come up with for 2023. Shareholder's advisory vote annually suggests that shareholders approve even if they do not disclose the formula for the vote. Otherwise, shareholders would vote against the proposal, right? investors.mannkindcorp.com/node/18901/html#proposal6Correct and you found it! Shareholders must approve via vote. However, virtually no retail investors even read the comp formula stuff. Case in point, even as ardent a MNKD shareholder as prcgorman has not read it and didn't even know it was publicly available. He is no doubt in the majority in that lack of awareness. I had no idea either until a few years ago. The comp formula is a complicated morass of info and metrics, obviously a great deal of thought and energy has gone into determining a formula that will be quite generous yet pass the shareholder vote. Since hardly any retail investors even read it, it's almost a sure thing blank check that will always pass the vote, it's a serious red flag if it's even close to not passing. Usually these votes pass with over 90% support, and that was true of MNKD until a few years ago before more folks (apparently including institutional investors) began paying attention and voting against. The 2021 annual report noted "a trend of eroding support" for the comp package and it declined to a concerning 61% vote in support in 2020. That got the attention of the MNKD execs for sure. At your link above go to page 51 for the discussion of Executive Compensation. Good luck getting through it. Skip to page 55 for the target bonus formulas to which i referred. These change year to year, anyone can look those up to compare. I really hope in the upcoming one we don't see a line item target bonus metric for "Reaching CFBE" because that might cast any accounting "wizardry" in a different light as we celebrate the on-paper accomplishment. The point of these target comp bonus formulas is to align exec pay with shareholders, so given our current share price situation I'm curious to see what they do this time. Maybe not many care about this stuff, but i find it relevant to our investment. |
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Post by celo on Nov 8, 2023 17:40:19 GMT -5
MNKD mentioned $30M in Q2 for stocking per UTHR earnings call. That would mean $3M out of the $49M in Q2 leaving Q1 at $41M, Q2 at $46M and Q3 at $51M. Doesn't appear to be a slowdown to me. I realize I am looking at total revenue but the changes in the other items are relatively flat.
Looking at just DPI Q1 @ $11.7M, Q2 @ $16M and Q3 @ $20.2M - Still pretty good growth quarter on quarter.
Thank you for that post, standup. I think you're saying that the increase in revenues (5.94% Q/Q as reported by UTHR) and the increase in royalties (6.1% Q/Q as reported by MNKD) are lower than the actual increase in patient demand/prescriptions due to some revenues/royalties for building inventory being booked in Q2, and the inventory building does not reflect actual delivery and sale to patients. Is there a building of inventory adjustment for 3rd qtr, too? UTHR did state in the second quarter they wanted to build up inventory over the third quarter. UTHR seems to believe the patient pool is available for any tyvaso DPI they have on the shelf. |
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Post by craig on Nov 8, 2023 21:37:57 GMT -5
Great post from Anderson, but there's a mistake (the presentation of the data is bit confusing). Here's what the info on page 6 of the SEC quarterly filing says for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2023: (in thousands)- Issuance of common stock associated at-the-market placement: 847 [up from 269 in Q2! That's a difference of 578, i.e. 578,000 additional shares sold by the company, resulting in several millions...which allowed the company to net a small profit for the quarter with a bit of smoke and mirrors]
- Issuance of common stock pursuant to conversion of the Mann Group convertible note interest: 13
- Net issuance of common stock associated with stock options and restricted stock units: 448
investors.mannkindcorp.com/node/19436/html |
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Post by porkini on Nov 8, 2023 22:15:47 GMT -5
Great post from Anderson, but there's a mistake (the presentation of the data is bit confusing). Here's what the info on page 6 of the SEC quarterly filing says for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2023: (in thousands)- Issuance of common stock associated at-the-market placement: 847 [up from 269 in Q2! That's a difference of 578, i.e. 578,000 additional shares sold by the company, resulting in several millions...which allowed the company to net a small profit for the quarter with a bit of smoke and mirrors]
- Issuance of common stock pursuant to conversion of the Mann Group convertible note interest: 13
- Net issuance of common stock associated with stock options and restricted stock units: 448
investors.mannkindcorp.com/node/19436/htmlSince it is a page or more back, here is the post I think you are referring to from anderson (and thank you for your first post!): 55,000,000 shares likely in RSUs and other stock based compensation. Been watching a lot of Form 144s, etc, fly by on the radar this quarter. Page 5 Show share BALANCE, JUNE 30, 2023 268,235k. 323,770k is the fully diluted value if all the debit is converted to shares(the ones with conversion options....ie senior notes and mann group). you can see that 362000 share were sold through the ATM this quarter. 13000 to Mann group to pay interest, 3.2 million for stock options and RSU 266000 employee stock purchase plan, and 36000 for Issuance of common stock from market price stock purchase plan whatever that is. to total of 4 million dilution this quarter. So yeah, they ran the ATM to pay for something. |
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Post by craig on Nov 8, 2023 22:30:40 GMT -5
Thanks...haven't figured out how to quote others properly.
I did confirm that selling securities/shares does impact the income statement.
However, despite what I said about smoke and mirrors, I'm not sure why they sold so many shares.
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Post by sla55 on Nov 9, 2023 16:28:32 GMT -5
beststocks.com/mannkind-corporation-exceeds-expectations-wit-2/
MannKind Corporation Exceeds Expectations with Impressive Q3 2023 EarningsMannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) has exceeded expectations with its impressive Q3 2023 earnings. Here are the key highlights from their report: Adjusted EPS of $0.01: MannKind’s earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $0.01, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.02) by a remarkable 150%. This represents a substantial increase of 116.67% compared to the $(0.06) loss per share in the same period last year. Sales of $51.25 million: The company’s quarterly sales reached an impressive $51.25 million, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $50.72 million by 1.05%. This marks a significant 56.14% increase in sales compared to $32.83 million in the same period last year. Profit of $1.7 million: MannKind reported a profit of $1.7 million for the third quarter, showcasing a substantial improvement from the -$14.43 million loss in the same period last year. MannKind’s outstanding performance in Q3 2023 can be attributed to a variety of factors. One of the key drivers is the continued growth of their flagship product, Afrezza® (insulin human) Inhalation Powder. This innovative product has gained significant traction in the market, contributing to the company’s success. Additionally, MannKind’s efforts to expand their product portfolio and establish strategic partnerships have played a vital role in their strong performance. By diversifying their offerings and collaborating with key industry players, they have been able to tap into new markets and create valuable opportunities for growth. Overall, MannKind’s Q3 2023 earnings report showcases their ability to deliver exceptional results and solidify their position as a leader in the industry. With their continued focus on innovation and strategic expansion, the company is well-positioned for continued success in the future. MNKD Stock Shows Modest Increase on November 8, 2023: Positive Earnings and Revenue Growth Expected
MNKD stock had a mixed performance on November 8, 2023. The stock opened at $3.82, higher than the previous day’s close of $3.68. Throughout the day, it traded within a range of $3.69 to $3.87. The volume of shares traded was 2,735,105, which was slightly higher than the average volume of 2,527,171 over the past three months. MNKD has a market capitalization of $1.1 billion. The company’s earnings growth last year was -4.71%, but it has shown significant improvement this year with a growth rate of +65.43%. Looking ahead, analysts expect the company to continue growing with a projected earnings growth rate of +30.20% over the next five years. This positive outlook is supported by the company’s revenue growth of +32.25% in the previous year. The stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is not available (NM), indicating that the company may not have positive earnings currently. However, the price-to-sales ratio is 13.58, suggesting that investors are willing to pay a premium for each dollar of sales generated by the company. On November 8, 2023, MNKD’s stock price showed a modest increase of +$0.22 or +1.53%. This positive change indicates that investors may have reacted positively to the company’s performance or other market factors. In comparison, other pharmaceutical companies such as Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX) saw a smaller increase of +0.22 or +1.53%, while Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL) experienced a decrease of -$0.36 or -3.35%. MNKD is a health technology company operating in the pharmaceuticals: major industry. The company’s headquarters are located in Danbury, Connecticut. Looking ahead, MNKD’s next reporting date is scheduled for February 27, 2024. Analysts forecast an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.01 for the current quarter. In the previous year, the company reported annual revenue of $99.8 million, but it incurred a net loss of -$87.4 million. This resulted in a net profit margin of -87.60%, indicating that the company’s expenses exceeded its revenue. Overall, MNKD’s stock performance on November 8, 2023, showed a modest increase. The company has demonstrated positive earnings and revenue growth, which may contribute to its future success. However, it is important for investors to consider other factors such as the company’s high net loss margin and the industry dynamics before making investment decisions.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 9, 2023 18:35:50 GMT -5
Correct and you found it! Shareholders must approve via vote. However, virtually no retail investors even read the comp formula stuff. Case in point, even as ardent a MNKD shareholder as prcgorman has not read it and didn't even know it was publicly available. He is no doubt in the majority in that lack of awareness. I had no idea either until a few years ago. The comp formula is a complicated morass of info and metrics, obviously a great deal of thought and energy has gone into determining a formula that will be quite generous yet pass the shareholder vote. Since hardly any retail investors even read it, it's almost a sure thing blank check that will always pass the vote, it's a serious red flag if it's even close to not passing. Usually these votes pass with over 90% support, and that was true of MNKD until a few years ago before more folks (apparently including institutional investors) began paying attention and voting against. The 2021 annual report noted "a trend of eroding support" for the comp package and it declined to a concerning 61% vote in support in 2020. That got the attention of the MNKD execs for sure. At your link above go to page 51 for the discussion of Executive Compensation. Good luck getting through it. Skip to page 55 for the target bonus formulas to which i referred. These change year to year, anyone can look those up to compare. I really hope in the upcoming one we don't see a line item target bonus metric for "Reaching CFBE" because that might cast any accounting "wizardry" in a different light as we celebrate the on-paper accomplishment. The point of these target comp bonus formulas is to align exec pay with shareholders, so given our current share price situation I'm curious to see what they do this time. Maybe not many care about this stuff, but i find it relevant to our investment. Since the majority shareholders are institutions, how much does it matter what retail investors know about executive compensation? I think it is relevant and I respect you for pointing it out to others so that they can be better informed, but I do not begrudge them the money they’re earning. We could argue whether it ought to be less but we would need better information about compensation for similar businesses in the same sector to compare and I just assume it’s within some reasonable range. I know this is laziness on my part but I just doubt that there will be some jaw dropping discrepancy that would fire me up and make me angry. |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 9, 2023 21:28:42 GMT -5
Thanks for replying. I agree retail investors like us are basically irrelevant when it comes to voting on the comp package. So nobody here really needs to read those details. Moreover, anyone who does read those pages - really read them - will likely experience a shift in perspective. You may not want to do that, sometimes ignorance is bliss. Once I read that section a few years ago I had to make a point of doing so each year, to observe how the “target metrics” shift from year to year. That is enlightening on another level, and it’s not lost on me how much thought and energy goes into presenting/selling that to shareholders (most of whom never even read it). The tutes read it, so when the exec comp approval vote sunk to 61% that was a serious wake up call, it sure got my attention and spurred me to read more carefully.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 10, 2023 7:55:41 GMT -5
Thanks for replying. I agree retail investors like us are basically irrelevant when it comes to voting on the comp package. So nobody here really needs to read those details. Moreover, anyone who does read those pages - really read them - will likely experience a shift in perspective. You may not want to do that, sometimes ignorance is bliss. Once I read that section a few years ago I had to make a point of doing so each year, to observe how the “target metrics” shift from year to year. That is enlightening on another level, and it’s not lost on me how much thought and energy goes into presenting/selling that to shareholders (most of whom never even read it). The tutes read it, so when the exec comp approval vote sunk to 61% that was a serious wake up call, it sure got my attention and spurred me to read more carefully. The compensation approval percentage dropping to 61% being a “wake up call” is good, yes? The signal is, “do not assume you can do much more with executive compensation than you have already done”. I’m OK with that. One of the other things institutional investors do is the comparison I mentioned between MNKD and other companies to evaluate whether or not the compensation is within an acceptable range. I feel like that is good governance from the majority shareholders. Thank you for sharing that you began reading the compensation and urging others to be as well informed too. It helps us to understand why you are so down on MNKD management. You are not alone, and I’ve said before that if I become as restless as I was in 2015, my posts will not be very supportive of Dr. Castagna and the Board. I’m annoyed with the salesforce restructuring and the resulting hit to Afrezza sales. My experience gives me no optimism about the restructuring but I can be patient to see whether the move made sense. I agree with parrerob that management should carry the threads. Is the India effort dead? What about Brazil? Simply being silent is bad form. Mike has been CEO for 6 going on 7 years and the debt coming due is going to be a big test of Mike and Steven Binder. Whether they do a good job or not, my opinion is their position at MNKD will be in some jeopardy as they navigate this next hurdle while simultaneously trying to bring clofazamine and nintedanib to market. No rest for the wicked. |
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Of course in hindsight I was too happy last earnings, lol Oh well, guess I was a bit premature in my holdings increase this past quarter. Hopefully no one remembers I had predicted we'd hit $6 in run up to Q3 earnings. Now I'm likely to have a reputation for irrational exuberance. Fortunately, I assume irrational exuberance is graded on a very steep curve here, though based on that share price prediction I feel I deserve at least a C+ for irrational exuberance.
