|
Post by ronw77077 on Oct 20, 2023 13:54:25 GMT -5
Prcgorman2 - I'll take the easy part. It is inconceivable that UT is paid before shipment. Cash is not tied to revenue recognition, except that deferred revenue typically results from cash receipts before all of the elements that UT and its auditors view as part of the sales process are completed.
The other quandaries you have are too deep in the woods to chase.
Lastly, I took 12 hours of accounting which, along with a masters degree, made me eligible to take the CPA exam which I passed on the first try. I kept my CPA license for decades.
|
|
|
Post by Clement on Oct 20, 2023 13:55:04 GMT -5
MNKD's 10K says royalties are recognized "as the sale of Tyvaso DPI to a patient occurs."
On the other hand, UTHR's 10K says "Revenue is recognized when we transfer control of our products to our distributors," and Rose says "Royalties are recognized upon UTHR’s quarterly reporting of TDPI sales."
Why the disparity? Oh well, it makes sense that the second is correct because it would be harder for UTHR to follow every sale to a patient.
|
|
|
Post by tarheelblue004 on Oct 21, 2023 14:03:17 GMT -5
This is really significant ronw!! Thank you for asking Rose and for posting!
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Oct 21, 2023 14:42:49 GMT -5
Great, we have some answers to those lingering revenue recognition issues: Manufacturing Revenue = When it leaves the MNKD facility shipped to UTHR Royalty Revenue = When UTHR drops it into their distribution channels
My point, MNKD isn't waiting for any revenue at the POS.
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Oct 21, 2023 14:53:40 GMT -5
POS Hmmm ... Oh, point of sale !!! But, that's mytakeonit
|
|
|
Post by celo on Oct 21, 2023 16:37:08 GMT -5
There is a 5 million milestone payment on accrued interest that is payable during Q3. It is located within page 20 in the section 8 Titled "Accrued Expenses and Other Current Liabilities" I am not sure if it has been included with the calculations for Q3 It would still look good to be profitable before the interest payment
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Oct 21, 2023 19:09:15 GMT -5
IIRC, $5M is how much we missed being profitable last quarter. If that’s true, we might still eek out the first profitable quarter.
|
|
|
Post by castlerockchris on Oct 22, 2023 15:58:12 GMT -5
What still amazes me is that two years ago MNKD was bleeding cash. Now, not only is MNKD nearly covering their cash costs to run the business, but they still have a significant pile of cash at their disposal, which will certainly come in handy over the next two years. If I can hang in for another two years, and assuming at least one additional drug approval during that time, I don’t see how this isn’t a $10+ stock in late 2025.
|
|
|
Post by mymann on Oct 23, 2023 15:52:45 GMT -5
Wondering if mnkd sp will run up before 3rd quarter ER? I expected to start towards ER by now but too much uncertainty in the market.
|
|
|
Post by cppoly on Oct 24, 2023 14:49:11 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I feel like there was a lot of upcoming events that were discussed earlier this year that MNKD indicated should have been done completed by now.
Thoughts?
|
|
|
Post by mymann on Oct 24, 2023 15:57:19 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I feel like there was a lot of upcoming events that were discussed earlier this year that MNKD indicated should have been done completed by now. Thoughts? It's the quiet period. Big deals are being made and can't share the results yet.
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Oct 24, 2023 16:09:18 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I feel like there was a lot of upcoming events that were discussed earlier this year that MNKD indicated should have been done completed by now. Thoughts? It's the quiet period. Big deals are being made and can't share the results yet. Hopefully so, as we are several years overdue for some big deals. I’ll settle for just one this year!
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Oct 24, 2023 16:17:11 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I feel like there was a lot of upcoming events that were discussed earlier this year that MNKD indicated should have been done completed by now. Thoughts? Mango and others are pretty good about listing out what's going on but I don't track. I come here instead!
MannKind was supposed to meet with the FDA about next steps on the clofazamine orphan drug development track. That meeting should have been "completed" but I think it was only an administrative milestone. I think a successful completion of that milestone would mean the clofazamine program would remain on track for orphan drug approval in 2024 or 2025 if all relevant development and testing is successful.
There was one or more Tyvaso DPI production performance improvements that were completed last quarter (e.g., drying capacity improvement), but I don't remember if there was more capacity-related work due to complete in Q3.
I think recruitment for the pediatric trial of Afrezza was still on-going. I don't know if recruitment was supposed to be complete in Q3.
Anybody else?
|
|
|
Post by Clement on Oct 25, 2023 7:46:13 GMT -5
Great, we have some answers to those lingering revenue recognition issues: Manufacturing Revenue = When it leaves the MNKD facility shipped to UTHR Royalty Revenue = When UTHR drops it into their distribution channelsMy point, MNKD isn't waiting for any revenue at the POS. This is important for Q3. "Inventory-building", ie, increasing stocking levels by UTHR's distributors, occurred during Q3. Inventory-building plus normal stocking for patient sales yields a total of TDPI revenues which leads me to believe there will be strong royalties for Q3. I am now leaning more toward tarheelblue's estimate for Q3. mnkd.proboards.com/post/256411/thread(Earnings call is two weeks from now.)
|
|
|
Post by ronw77077 on Oct 26, 2023 11:53:51 GMT -5
Thoughtful speculation:
Tarheelblue gave us a well thought out hypothesis of why Q3 revenue would be in the range of $64- $68 million. What then are the implications?
MNKD Q2 revenue: Afrezza 13,527 V-Go 4,818 Tyvaso 19,055 Coll & Svcs 11,211
Total 48,611
Q2 MNKD royalties were $19.1 M and UT's total Tyvaso revenues was $318.9 M, from which we can calculate that the royalties to MNKD were 6.0% of UT's Tyvaso revenue.
If Q3 revenues are $64-$68 M based upon royalties in the range of $19 M + $17 M higher Q3 royalties or $36 M, and MNKD's royalty remains at 6% of UT's Tyvaso revenue, then we can deduce that UT will report about $600 million in Q3 Tyvaso revenue.
Going a step further, Tarheelblue essentially said that MNKD would sell all the DPI it would make in Q3 which inherently means that, assuming the sales demand exists for DPI, MNKD delimits the maximum amount of revenue that UT can realize. Seems to me that UT would have pushed MNKD to maximize production, and that just possibly royalties may be higher than has been speculated.
|
|