What's Going On - Nonspecific MNKD Topics

[awesomo]

Thanks to Kresa for taking the hit on that $6 pump and dump back in the day.

[prcgorman2]

Aug 14, 2024 9:05:38 GMT -5 mymann said:

Kent retirement must be bad news. Sp below 5.

Back up in the green.  Missed another buying opportunity!

[cretin11]

Aug 14, 2024 9:49:09 GMT -5 awesomo said:

Thanks to Kresa for taking the hit on that $6 pump and dump back in the day.

You got that right!  What a day it was that October.  Kresa gave us a serious jumpstart (sure, some might call it "manipulation" but wouldn't we all like to see more of that type of manipluation?), we thought it was the start of something huge but alas our company wasn't able to sustain it.  I would've scoffed then at the notion we would be this low so many years later.  Only sold a handful of covered calls that day (damn my FOMO) but it was a lesson learned well.  Regardless, i heartily endorse your "Thanks to Kresa" sentiment for taking one for the team that day!  

[ktim]

Aug 14, 2024 10:15:24 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

Aug 14, 2024 9:05:38 GMT -5 mymann said:

Kent retirement must be bad news. Sp below 5.

Back up in the green.  Missed another buying opportunity!

You can probably get $0.55 selling Feb 2025 $5 strike puts... sort of like getting to buy shares at $4.45.

[cretin11]

That's right, ktim. An easy way to potentially get sub $5 (or even sub $4.50) shares. I have some of those exact puts, as well as other expiration dates. Though my hope is our share price stays north of $5 so we won't get those shares, but instead just pocket the premiums. A win-win deal as long as we stay north of around $4.50.

[minnlearner]

Hi All 

Just back from NYC and my dumb stomach dropped like a down button on one of those skyscrapers elevators. 

Silly me, once again thinking that 'maybe this is the time MNKD finally gets going'. 

ONCE AGAIN, Lucy yanked the football. 

I'm going to hang in because there is not much else to do. I invested in something I believed in, helping diabetics with their ever increasing numbers. Also, the idea of helping pre adults and opening a huge market like India seemed like a good bet. Plus the added 'without needles' appealed to me.

To all the Mankind longtime longs, here is hoping for the best. (end of rant)    May the force be with us!  and the answer IS '42'

[cretin11]

Pretty reasonable "rant" (it doesn't really approach rant level IMO). Many of us got involved with MNKD for the same reasons you did. Helping diabetics on a large scale, revolutionizing treatment with the best technology invented for the problem. As someone who detests needles, that aspect appealed to me as well. Bill McCullough and VDEX have definitely not given up on Afrezza gaining traction one day, that is for sure. I hope MannKind will stay in the game too, and I believe current signs point to that being the case for at least the forseeable future.

As for cruel Lucy and her football, that is a whole different issue and there's no easy fix there! Nothing against Charlie Brown who tries his hardest, but sometimes you just need a better kicker... 

[prcgorman2]

Yup, that's the kind of "rant" I like to see. Good to see investors feeling better and better about their investment. I expected a retrace, and in the "old days" would have expected a ride back to the $3s, at least briefly. It's been nice to watch $5 be a floor, for the last several weeks anyway. It would be good to never see the $3s again. Shedding debt, increasing revenues, getting good trial results, and progressing the pipeline have all helped I think. Onward and upward!

[parrerob]

From ER slides q2 2024 reported 11800 trx.

First time after Symphony shutdown MNKD ufficially communicate quarterly scripts.

Very bad numbers IMO as q2 2023 was trx 11310

Only 4% increase after 12 months...

Also I don't like the way MNKD presents results... scripts compared vs q1 2024, other key numbers compared vs q2 23.... every quarter a different presentation. Cipla disappeared from any slide. Q1 24 reported Cipla approval for q4 24 but now disappeared.... what is the logic to present with snagpoints if the list change?

Cmon MC.... this is not the way IMO.

[prcgorman2]

Aug 16, 2024 11:21:07 GMT -5 parrerob said:

From ER slides q2 2024 reported 11800 trx.

First time after Symphony shutdown MNKD ufficially communicate quarterly scripts.

Very bad numbers IMO as q2 2023 was trx 11310

Only 4% increase after 12 months...

Also I don't like the way MNKD presents results... scripts compared vs q1 2024, other key numbers compared vs q2 23.... every quarter a different presentation. Cipla disappeared from any slide. Q1 24 reported Cipla approval for q4 24 but now disappeared.... what is the ligic to present with snagpoints if the list change?

Cmon MC.... this is not the way IMO.

At least it was an increase?  I won't make excuses.  Your points are good ones.

[cretin11]

Agree parrerob, I didn't expect great script numbers based upon past track record, but certainly expected better than this.

As for the presentation issues you raise, the logic escapes me as well but maybe somebody can explain it. Our team has had literally dozens of these presentations so there must be some reason.

[ktim]

Well... to channel James Carville (and not directed at anyone here)... "It's the formularies, stupid".

Scripts aren't going to change dramatically because of lack of insurance coverage.

We can always hope that situation changes, but it really is an exercise in hope.

Fortunately, MNKD is on a solid path even with these very anemic Afrezza sales... it's no longer bleeding the coffers dry, and we have other more probable paths to robust revenue growth.

[parrerob]

On the other side strongly hope that ADA event, and the relative huge advertising received, has some effect on our niche (no insurance) afrezza best insuline drug.

Last year Afrezza revenues in q3 were flat against q2.

This year I am expecting from ADA event at least a 10% increase in net rev vs previous quarter.

And another 10% in q4.

If not We have a big problem... Afrezza has not effect from advertising.

If everything goes well we can close 2024 with 69 m$ (+25% vs 23).

Tyv dpi should bring with no surprise around 100m$

14 m$ from vgo

So that we can close at 183 m$ revenues from drugs + 105/110 m$ rev from coll & services.

A question: how can it be that coll & services is bigger then revenus? Considering it has been always lower then that (it was quite the half in q2 23 f.e.)
Cannot be only linked to cost production because it should decrease in %, not increase.
Does it contains, qtr by qtr, some deferred rev?




Edit
Last 4 qtrs UTHR reported 904.6 m$ on Tyv dpi.
MNKD reported 89.42 m$ just from royalties... so that the 10% is quite all in.
What's the mistery (for me) around coll&services inceasing by time vs royalties?

[Clement]

Yes, coll and Services does include recognition of deferred revenue.

Also, in a separate thread we have discussed the Uthr "free drug" program and it's impact on coll and Services.
There is no royalty on free drug but there is fee for manufacturing.

[prcgorman2]

I think there have also been continuing equipment and labor capital investments to increase Tyvaso DPI production capacity which are in Collab & Services too.