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Post by parrerob on Nov 3, 2023 11:54:39 GMT -5
Even though I have owned MNKD shares for 9 years now, never before have I been so doubtful about my investment. Furthermore, my investment is in the green having, by a stroke of luck, bought heavily when it was worth less than a dollar (post split).
I remain convinced that Afrezza will close 2023 in any case around $100M in sales reported on Symphony but seeing the slowdown is quite traumatic also because to date I still see Afrezza as the only short-term possibility of large growth in MNKD.
Tyvaso DPI is a phenomenal product but it is not ours... and as we can see, it is almost time for it to become a Billion Revenue drug and MNKD, receiving approximately 10%, will post $100M in revenue...
If and if it reaches the famous 10K patients (2025?) it seems that we will have $250M in revenue per year.
And then ? We will soon reach the state of economic sustainability but not that of capital production. At least, to date, it will depend exclusively on UTHR's strategies and absolutely not on our will or ability (but perhaps this is a good thing, haha).
Will we have the next 6-18 months of incredible growth? We hope because since we have no news on the pipeline for quarters and quarters, we spent $20M for V.GO but after more than a year it is still not clear what the strategy behind it is (since, in addition to the purchase capital the game costs us quite a few dollars every month), with 2024 we enter a period where the debt will have to be renegotiated (we will certainly no longer have 2.5% interest) and we will almost certainly witness, in the renegotiation of the debt, yet another dilution sensitive…. In short, there are certainly excellent prospects for the pipeline but also still many points to clarify.
One of the things that pisses me off the most is the silence and lack of clarity from management.... But do you want to tell us something about Brazil (at least tell us that Brasil opportunity is dead) ? do you want to tell us something about India?…. I would also like to know if (or not) Afrezza alone is sustainable today! How much does it cost us to keep V-GO in our portfolio?
Dark.
We absolutely need Afrezza (for this reason some news on the pediatric study or on CIPLA or whatever would be very welcome, as well as some info on the sales strategy we are adopting) or other bids similar to the one relating to Tyvaso DPI but with different companies .
In my house, when a company produces for just 1 customer, it is clear that the company that produces is "owned" by the customer... and this regardless of the share capital. MNKD as we stand today belongs to United Therapeutics…. No need for buyout / merge or anything else.... UTHR simply has us by the balls!
Sorry today I'm a bit pessimistic and dark.... It is absolutely not due to the fact that we will have $50-51 million of revenue posted in Q3 instead of 56 or 60 or whatever…. What is depressing me the most is the trend that Afrezza is following and above all the lack of clarity from the management.
Tomorrow will be a better day. Next Monday let's hope for even better!!!
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 3, 2023 12:48:45 GMT -5
Mike talked about the strategy in the Morgan Stanley call. He wants to get away from royalty deals like UTHR because they are low margin and unreliable (your fate is in someone else's hands and interests may diverge). His strategy to to own the drug lifecycle from inception to customer without involving partners. This has not worked out well with Afrezza though hence the follow up which is to go for orphan drugs as there is little competition.
Really there isn't a lot of choice. Drug delivery is a low volume low margin business and MNKD is not broadly competitive (the UTHR deal was announced five years ago and the sales pipeline looks pretty empty). Afrezza will probably get a one time bump next year when it becomes available for kids, but growth will remain sluggish as there is nothing to change the narrative on outcomes. That leaves the drug pipeline as the only option by a process of elimination.
The interesting question is whether MNKD call sell the drugs. To date sales results have been rather anemic to be polite with campaigns like flying burgers and melting ice cream, and no evidence for why endos should prescribe. That problem is alleviated with orphan drugs because there is little or no competition so the sales organization becomes less about sales and marketing, and more about order taking. If your organization can't sell then pick an area where they don't need to.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 3, 2023 14:19:12 GMT -5
Good post parrerob. That’s kinda where I’ve been for a while now. One person has gotten very rich off MNKD and that’s our ceo. To a lesser extent some other execs too. That is not intended to offend anyone here (including said ceo), it’s simply an observation. And that’s how big business works sometimes. Parrerob you point out several issues including the lack of clarity and direction from management. As long as they are allowed to do that and still have people praising their brilliance, it will likely continue. I am used to being harassed for my opinions here and expect more of that after this post. And that’s fine, it’s a message board after all. And it’s Friday so I’m planning to enjoy the weekend!
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Post by cjm18 on Nov 3, 2023 14:28:04 GMT -5
It’s a cycle. Feel optimistic after the earnings call. best call ever. Stock price up a bit. Then stock price drops and feel pessimistic.
There’s really no reason to go back and forth.
The timeline of events is in the earning calls. Those events will impact sales. They are transparent.
The question becomes how much $ will each product make and how fast.
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Post by longliner on Nov 3, 2023 14:33:33 GMT -5
Producing at capacity. Having to increase capacity. I find it difficult to be pessimistic.
Or looked at in a different light, if you can't sell the product, sell the company.
Either way I find it difficult to be pessimistic.
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Post by peppy on Nov 3, 2023 14:47:59 GMT -5
Mike talked about the strategy in the Morgan Stanley call. He wants to get away from royalty deals like UTHR because they are low margin and unreliable (your fate is in someone else's hands and interests may diverge). His strategy to to own the drug lifecycle from inception to customer without involving partners. This has not worked out well with Afrezza though hence the follow up which is to go for orphan drugs as there is little competition. Really there isn't a lot of choice. Drug delivery is a low volume low margin business and MNKD is not broadly competitive (the UTHR deal was announced five years ago and the sales pipeline looks pretty empty). Afrezza will probably get a one time bump next year when it becomes available for kids, but growth will remain sluggish as there is nothing to change the narrative on outcomes. That leaves the drug pipeline as the only option by a process of elimination. The interesting question is whether MNKD call sell the drugs. To date sales results have been rather anemic to be polite with campaigns like flying burgers and melting ice cream, and no evidence for why endos should prescribe. That problem is alleviated with orphan drugs because there is little or no competition so the sales organization becomes less about sales and marketing, and more about order taking. If your organization can't sell then pick an area where they don't need to. Drug delivery is a low volume low margin business and MNKD is not broadly competitive, TRUE. If Afrezza had more volume it could be more competitive. Hence the attempt is Brazil. Aside from Afrezza, the delivery system. An IV. Technosphere. No insertion, no tape. no bag. No mixing. Instant delivery to the blood stream through left atrium and left ventricle. So delivery into the lung tissue.... also delivery to the blood stream. I would think the delivery system would come in handy dandy. In some posted articles, there has been word processing about Pharma companies starting their own inhalation development. Big business can see the revenue of Tyvasso DPI for UTHR. Thoughts on this take? |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 3, 2023 15:10:18 GMT -5
Mike talked about the strategy in the Morgan Stanley call. He wants to get away from royalty deals like UTHR because they are low margin and unreliable (your fate is in someone else's hands and interests may diverge). His strategy to to own the drug lifecycle from inception to customer without involving partners. This has not worked out well with Afrezza though hence the follow up which is to go for orphan drugs as there is little competition. Really there isn't a lot of choice. Drug delivery is a low volume low margin business and MNKD is not broadly competitive (the UTHR deal was announced five years ago and the sales pipeline looks pretty empty). Afrezza will probably get a one time bump next year when it becomes available for kids, but growth will remain sluggish as there is nothing to change the narrative on outcomes. That leaves the drug pipeline as the only option by a process of elimination. The interesting question is whether MNKD call sell the drugs. To date sales results have been rather anemic to be polite with campaigns like flying burgers and melting ice cream, and no evidence for why endos should prescribe. That problem is alleviated with orphan drugs because there is little or no competition so the sales organization becomes less about sales and marketing, and more about order taking. If your organization can't sell then pick an area where they don't need to. I would think the delivery system would come in handy dandy. In some posted articles, there has been word processing about Pharma companies starting their own inhalation development. Big business can see the revenue of Tyvasso DPI for UTHR. Thoughts on this take? Agree. If correct, then how much time should we allow our current team to capitalize on this, and how often should we be seeing pipeline deals? |
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Post by markado on Nov 3, 2023 16:08:55 GMT -5
Mike talked about the strategy in the Morgan Stanley call. He wants to get away from royalty deals like UTHR because they are low margin and unreliable (your fate is in someone else's hands and interests may diverge). His strategy to to own the drug lifecycle from inception to customer without involving partners. This has not worked out well with Afrezza though hence the follow up which is to go for orphan drugs as there is little competition. Really there isn't a lot of choice. Drug delivery is a low volume low margin business and MNKD is not broadly competitive (the UTHR deal was announced five years ago and the sales pipeline looks pretty empty). Afrezza will probably get a one time bump next year when it becomes available for kids, but growth will remain sluggish as there is nothing to change the narrative on outcomes. That leaves the drug pipeline as the only option by a process of elimination. The interesting question is whether MNKD call sell the drugs. To date sales results have been rather anemic to be polite with campaigns like flying burgers and melting ice cream, and no evidence for why endos should prescribe. That problem is alleviated with orphan drugs because there is little or no competition so the sales organization becomes less about sales and marketing, and more about order taking. If your organization can't sell then pick an area where they don't need to. And, this is why you jointly develop products with companies that have existing, quantifiably valuable drugs, and sales forces or successful channels of distribution, BUT, foreseeable expiring patents! They want to keep their franchise and revenue for many years to come. And, like potential expansion of Tyvaso DPI, since the delivery system is known, approved and safe, new DPI drug approval of previously approved drugs delivered otherwise can be accelerated to dosing and efficacy trials only. This is why it is imperative that MNKD get off its collective ass and spin out the development arm, if they are going to cherry pick orphan drugs to chase. They are literally holding back the DPI delivery market, and as a result leaving room and interest for others to stand up inhalation system alternatives. If Mike and the BOD can't see this, they are blind and their corporate strategy is flawed, if not doomed to be suboptimized, if not supplanted, down the road. I'm hoping something or someone sheds light on this, even if there is an uptick in share price in the near future. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Nov 3, 2023 16:40:52 GMT -5
Mike talked about the strategy in the Morgan Stanley call. He wants to get away from royalty deals like UTHR because they are low margin and unreliable (your fate is in someone else's hands and interests may diverge). His strategy to to own the drug lifecycle from inception to customer without involving partners. This has not worked out well with Afrezza though hence the follow up which is to go for orphan drugs as there is little competition. Really there isn't a lot of choice. Drug delivery is a low volume low margin business and MNKD is not broadly competitive (the UTHR deal was announced five years ago and the sales pipeline looks pretty empty). Afrezza will probably get a one time bump next year when it becomes available for kids, but growth will remain sluggish as there is nothing to change the narrative on outcomes. That leaves the drug pipeline as the only option by a process of elimination. The interesting question is whether MNKD call sell the drugs. To date sales results have been rather anemic to be polite with campaigns like flying burgers and melting ice cream, and no evidence for why endos should prescribe. That problem is alleviated with orphan drugs because there is little or no competition so the sales organization becomes less about sales and marketing, and more about order taking. If your organization can't sell then pick an area where they don't need to. Drug delivery is a low volume low margin business and MNKD is not broadly competitive, TRUE. If Afrezza had more volume it could be more competitive. Hence the attempt is Brazil. Aside from Afrezza, the delivery system. An IV. Technosphere. No insertion, no tape. no bag. No mixing. Instant delivery to the blood stream through left atrium and left ventricle. So delivery into the lung tissue.... also delivery to the blood stream. I would think the delivery system would come in handy dandy. In some posted articles, there has been word processing about Pharma companies starting their own inhalation development. Big business can see the revenue of Tyvasso DPI for UTHR. Thoughts on this take? Victoza patent expiration is next year. I wonder how liraglutide would fly on Technosphere? No shots in the diet market IMO is a blockbuster. Maybe we can sell V-Go and use the money for a pilot study. |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 3, 2023 18:19:47 GMT -5
Victoza patent expiration is next year. I wonder how liraglutide would fly on Technosphere? No shots in the diet market IMO is a blockbuster. Maybe we can sell V-Go and use the money for a pilot study. Not going to happen. Mike is very clear that the focus is orphan lung drugs which definitely does not describe GLP-1. Reread the transcript from the Morgan Stanley call, it's all in there. |
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Post by letitride on Nov 3, 2023 20:24:09 GMT -5
I have never been more confident than now. All the song and dance is just dust in the wind. The 3rd Qtr conf call followed up by the 3 investor conferences was very clear to me. Mike set a plan out and unless he needs to substantially deviate from that plan for some reason I expect nothing else need be said.
The time for pessimism was after those calls not days before the next.
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Post by ktim on Nov 3, 2023 22:03:58 GMT -5
I have never been more confident than now. All the song and dance is just dust in the wind. The 3rd Qtr conf call followed up by the 3 investor conferences was very clear to me. Mike set a plan out and unless he needs to substantially deviate from that plan for some reason I expect nothing else need be said. The time for pessimism was after those calls not days before the next. I was more confident before the first CRL... but I was a lot younger back then. |
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Post by castlerockchris on Nov 3, 2023 23:18:49 GMT -5
I wonder how much I could save on therapy if I sold all my MNKD and left ProBoards? Is there an online calculator for that? 😝
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Post by Chris-C on Nov 4, 2023 1:53:45 GMT -5
Personally, I think there is considerable speculation about positive events to drive revenue growth that has not yet materialized. We will have a clearer picture of the Tyvaso DPI royalty income on Monday- and by most accounts, it will fall short of a blockbuster result. Frequent mention is made of pediatric approval for afrezza, but that is speculative too- I would be reluctant to predict that the approval will escape FDA without a hiccup or two- as CRLs followed by delays have been the experience with this company. Clofazamine will be presumably fast tracked as an orphan drug, but that may also not be a smooth approval without hiccups. It is thus realistic to expect delays. Added to this is MNKD's debt and the likelihood that interest rates will go higher for that debt. Will this mean more dilution? Probably, there are good things happening, but product sales have to continue growing sharply on a quarterly basis to get the market's attention. There are many uncertainties, and these continue to dampen the market's enthusiasm for this company as an attractive investment.
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Post by longliner on Nov 4, 2023 2:59:57 GMT -5
I wonder how much I could save on therapy if I sold all my MNKD and left ProBoards? Is there an online calculator for that? 😝 If you were to sell MNKD now your online calculator will smack you, repeatedly, in the back of your head over the next few quarters. If you leave ProBoards, well, that's like leaving hatebook, it's nothing but a thing, quite therapeutic actually. Just remember, pop back in from time to time to remind the pay to play folks that you still care, rest assured, they'll still be here. IMHO  |
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