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Post by akemp3000 on Nov 28, 2023 16:54:41 GMT -5
The outlook for this company is outstanding. If the CEO's optimistic words in 3Q was accompanied by his personal anticipation of problems and the selling of his shares, then a class action lawsuit would surely follow. The thought of this is BS. Any market perception or concerns about this CEO selling shares is limited to an uneducated investor pool be it retail or institutional though the latter seems highly unlikely. If such concerns are sufficient to affect the share price, so be it. IMO, that's just going to make the future that much sweeter. GLTA
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Post by awesomo on Nov 28, 2023 17:51:21 GMT -5
Forget speculating on Mike selling shares.
The CFO on the earnings call told Wall Street that there will be no earnings growth for the next year. Talk about capping the share price and just opening the door for any doubters to freely bet against the company for a year. Spin this for optimism.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 28, 2023 17:54:51 GMT -5
Since 2000 OVER 50% of the companies that were in the S&P 500 at that time have been bought out, merged, gone bankrupt, or ceased to exist. Since the 1990's we have lost over 50% of the public traded companies. (from 8000 in 1990 to 3700 today) Maybe the CEO doesn't have confidence in himself. Maybe shorting companies should be against the law. |
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Post by hellodolly on Nov 28, 2023 19:18:50 GMT -5
Forget speculating on Mike selling shares. The CFO on the earnings call told Wall Street that there will be no earnings growth for the next year. Talk about capping the share price and just opening the door for any doubters to freely bet against the company for a year. Spin this for optimism. Steve Binder, Nov 2023 Earnings Call: "We have hit a significant financial milestone. We have now entered a period where we expect to bounce back and forth between earnings and loss per share, I'll call it a breakeven period and then we expect to grow earnings per share assuming Tyvaso DPI continues its upward trajectory and the endocrine business unit increases its positive contribution.
The following GAAP to net GAAP presentation was started in the second quarter of this year to better highlight the non-cash impacts of certain items to our P&L. In the third quarter of 2023, we've reached a milestone of positive GAAP net income of $2 million, while a year ago, looking at the right column, we had a GAAP net loss of $14 million.
When we adjusted 2023's third quarter GAAP net income for non-cash items of stock compensation and a gain on foreign currency, we had net non-GAAP net income of $4 million for the third quarter of 2023. As highlighted earlier, we expect to be plus or minus GAAP breakeven for a number of quarters before we expect to see net income growing on a continuous basis." I don't see your no earnings growth for the next year in his statement rather I see a very positive signal to the market. 1. Being breakeven during this period is better than losing EPS growth per share over the same " breakeven period". In other words, the bright side of the comment is that MNKD should be expected to maintain their current EPS give or take +/-. Might be that WS cares more about stagnant growth, but as a shareholder with an eye on the much bigger longterm outlook, I'd rather keep the EPS stable followed by the next move up...considering the multiple catalysts on the horizon that are not mentioned in this particular segment of the EC. Could be an excellent opportunity to make some bank as a trader and as a long term share holder. Personally, as SB mentioned, " Assuming Tyvaso continues it's upwards trajectory...", my bet is there will be some nice surprises ahead as the comments made by Mike and Steve could be simply explained as not wanting to "over promise and under deliver", but just the opposite. We have all of 2024 to see this play out. Maybe you should start a new thread with everyone's guess for the SP at the end of 2024. Spin this for pessimism. |
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Post by awesomo on Nov 28, 2023 19:28:29 GMT -5
We just had a breakeven quarter, and he says that for the next number of quarters we will be right around breakeven still. That is the very definition of "no earnings growth".
And it's pretty clear from the consistently decaying share price that the market doesn't interpret this as a positive signal.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 28, 2023 19:39:47 GMT -5
Yes let’s start a new thread for predictions of our share price in a year. I guess those predictions will be a lot lower than they would’ve been a couple of months ago. Correction: that’s not a guess, it’s a certainty.
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Post by anderson on Nov 28, 2023 21:31:51 GMT -5
We just had a breakeven quarter, and he says that for the next number of quarters we will be right around breakeven still. That is the very definition of "no earnings growth". And it's pretty clear from the consistently decaying share price that the market doesn't interpret this as a positive signal. Correct no EPS growth, but that is not the whole story in a growth stock. Revenue will continue to grow, but so will cost associated with the pipeline(trial costs), hence no growth in EPS. Amazon did that for years and they were not called dead money. |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 28, 2023 23:18:48 GMT -5
I must confess to previously overlooking the parallels between AMZN and MNKD, both growth stocks (haters please notice I didn’t say “rest and growth” stocks). They both have four letters in their ticker symbols too. Come to think of it, so do TSLA and AAPL.
AMZN, TSLA, AAPL and MNKD, collectively referred to (only by those in the know) as the ATAM stocks. FANG is so passé.
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Post by longliner on Nov 29, 2023 2:21:31 GMT -5
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Post by parrerob on Nov 29, 2023 3:55:44 GMT -5
We just had a breakeven quarter, and he says that for the next number of quarters we will be right around breakeven still. That is the very definition of "no earnings growth". And it's pretty clear from the consistently decaying share price that the market doesn't interpret this as a positive signal. Correct no EPS growth, but that is not the whole story in a growth stock. Revenue will continue to grow, but so will cost associated with the pipeline(trial costs), hence no growth in EPS. Amazon did that for years and they were not called dead money. It seems like an excellent comparison that makes me think a lot. (I own shares of AMAZON as well since years). The fundamental difference is that MNKD does (hopefully) increase revenues and invest them in growth (pipeline) but, unlike AMAZON, for example, where investments were still an indication of company growth certified by the visible increase in market shares of business and turnover deriving from their strategy, MNKD instead invests in its pipeline reaffirming the in-house development strategy which for the moment has only one product on the market (Afrezza) but which, for various reasons, is not yet successful commercial. In my opinion, if the strategy was to invest in initial studies and then seek partnerships on multiple products, as with Tyvaso-DPI which is visibly successful, the situation would be totally different and in principle the comparison with AMAZON would be more appropriate (in a small way of course). The revenues are invested in something that will certainly bear fruit in the years to come. It is the strategy at this point in our history that the market validates.... but until MNKD can show the market how much this research will bear fruit in the future, well it is clear that the comparison no longer makes sense and that PPS remains in the hands of pure speculators. it was recently stated that the business currently made up of Afrezza and V-Go should become sustainable in 2024.... well in my opinion it is very important to communicate to the market when Afrezza ALONE will be sustainable and in any case always growing slightly (it is now difficult to separate it from V- Go but it should be done). This is precisely to validate the chosen strategy to a minimum. |
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Post by stella on Nov 29, 2023 8:19:18 GMT -5
Binder blundered when he shifted the focus from revenue run-rate to EPS. Having said that, the primary driver of positive or negative EPS will be R&D spend, which is discretionary. I would prefer MNKD invest in its pipeline rather than fret over EPS. His breakeven timeline was ambiguous. Didn't say next 4 quarters, he said "for a number of quarters." Who knows what that means. It was an unforced error. At this point MNKD is essentially a subsidiary of UTHR. What is UTHR stock doing? Stable to up since their call. Naysayers on this and other boards should be focused on UTHR ($10.8 billion equity market cap, $4.9 billion cash/securities.) UTHR growth depends on DPI. My MNKD optimism is driven by UTHR's optimism. Have you seen institutional holders dumping MNKD shares in any size? No. So all of the hand-ringing by the glass-half-full crew is duplicitous.
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Post by awesomo on Nov 29, 2023 10:10:15 GMT -5
Someone starts a thread titled "Optimism" and it's now dominated by cresomo?    Maybe post a rebuttal instead of whining like usual. Oh right, you can’t. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 29, 2023 12:25:29 GMT -5
Correct no EPS growth, but that is not the whole story in a growth stock. Revenue will continue to grow, but so will cost associated with the pipeline(trial costs), hence no growth in EPS. Amazon did that for years and they were not called dead money. It seems like an excellent comparison that makes me think a lot. (I own shares of AMAZON as well since years). The fundamental difference is that MNKD does (hopefully) increase revenues and invest them in growth (pipeline) but, unlike AMAZON, for example, where investments were still an indication of company growth certified by the visible increase in market shares of business and turnover deriving from their strategy, MNKD instead invests in its pipeline reaffirming the in-house development strategy which for the moment has only one product on the market (Afrezza) but which, for various reasons, is not yet successful commercial. In my opinion, if the strategy was to invest in initial studies and then seek partnerships on multiple products, as with Tyvaso-DPI which is visibly successful, the situation would be totally different and in principle the comparison with AMAZON would be more appropriate (in a small way of course). The revenues are invested in something that will certainly bear fruit in the years to come. It is the strategy at this point in our history that the market validates.... but until MNKD can show the market how much this research will bear fruit in the future, well it is clear that the comparison no longer makes sense and that PPS remains in the hands of pure speculators. it was recently stated that the business currently made up of Afrezza and V-Go should become sustainable in 2024.... well in my opinion it is very important to communicate to the market when Afrezza ALONE will be sustainable and in any case always growing slightly (it is now difficult to separate it from V- Go but it should be done). This is precisely to validate the chosen strategy to a minimum. I wanted to only quote anderson and respond but I can't find his response to awesomo so maybe it was deleted or moved. Anyway, a more wholistic view of cash flow over the next however many quarters is going to include:
- capital expenditures to increase manufacturing capacity for Tyvaso DPI - various studies (e.g., pediatric, pump/switch) - various trials (e.g., clofazamine Phase 1 and with luck Phase 2/3) - R&D (e.g., nintedanib, etc.)
- on-going operational costs for manufacturing Tyvaso DPI - on-going operational costs for sales and administration for Afrezza and V-Go
- debt reduction
All of those are cash out. Cash in is predicted to increase because of increasing royalties from sales of Tyvaso DPI by UTHR. That makes me think all of the cash out items except one are reasonably flat. The one exception is debt. In order to payoff the debt (truly debt free?) in 24 months, I assume the pay down will need to increase towards the end of the 24 months perhaps finalized with a raise of cash using sale of equity (dilution) although Steven Binder said the plan is to payoff using revenue from operations.
Sometime back I saw an excellent review of MannKind debt structure and might have been from castlerockchris or ronw77077 but I didn't keep a reference sadly.
Does anybody have a good refresh of debt obligations in terms of amounts, timelines, and terms?
The bottom-line is I am very optimistic about the reduction in debt and the increase in revenue over the next two years. It's like paying off the mortgage in your house. It is liberating how much more disposable income you suddenly have to do "fun" things. e.g., pay dividends.
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Post by peppy on Nov 29, 2023 12:44:05 GMT -5
It seems like an excellent comparison that makes me think a lot. (I own shares of AMAZON as well since years). The fundamental difference is that MNKD does (hopefully) increase revenues and invest them in growth (pipeline) but, unlike AMAZON, for example, where investments were still an indication of company growth certified by the visible increase in market shares of business and turnover deriving from their strategy, MNKD instead invests in its pipeline reaffirming the in-house development strategy which for the moment has only one product on the market (Afrezza) but which, for various reasons, is not yet successful commercial. In my opinion, if the strategy was to invest in initial studies and then seek partnerships on multiple products, as with Tyvaso-DPI which is visibly successful, the situation would be totally different and in principle the comparison with AMAZON would be more appropriate (in a small way of course). The revenues are invested in something that will certainly bear fruit in the years to come. It is the strategy at this point in our history that the market validates.... but until MNKD can show the market how much this research will bear fruit in the future, well it is clear that the comparison no longer makes sense and that PPS remains in the hands of pure speculators. it was recently stated that the business currently made up of Afrezza and V-Go should become sustainable in 2024.... well in my opinion it is very important to communicate to the market when Afrezza ALONE will be sustainable and in any case always growing slightly (it is now difficult to separate it from V- Go but it should be done). This is precisely to validate the chosen strategy to a minimum. I wanted to only quote anderson and respond but I can't find his response to awesomo so maybe it was deleted or moved. Anyway, a more wholistic view of cash flow over the next however many quarters is going to include:
- capital expenditures to increase manufacturing capacity for Tyvaso DPI - various studies (e.g., pediatric, pump/switch) - various trials (e.g., clofazamine Phase 1 and with luck Phase 2/3) - R&D (e.g., nintedanib, etc.)
- on-going operational costs for manufacturing Tyvaso DPI - on-going operational costs for sales and administration for Afrezza and V-Go
- debt reduction
All of those are cash out. Cash in is predicted to increase because of increasing royalties from sales of Tyvaso DPI by UTHR. That makes me think all of the cash out items except one are reasonably flat. The one exception is debt. In order to payoff the debt (truly debt free?) in 24 months, I assume the pay down will need to increase towards the end of the 24 months perhaps finalized with a raise of cash using sale of equity (dilution) although Steven Binder said the plan is to payoff using revenue from operations.
Sometime back I saw an excellent review of MannKind debt structure and might have been from castlerockchris or ronw77077 but I didn't keep a reference sadly.
Does anybody have a good refresh of debt obligations in terms of amounts, timelines, and terms?
The bottom-line is I am very optimistic about the reduction in debt and the increase in revenue over the next two years. It's like paying off the mortgage in your house. It is liberating how much more disposable income you suddenly have to do "fun" things. e.g., pay dividends.
wrote, 3rd Quarter Earnings Nov 7, 2023 at 6:32am "Numbers (other than earnings per share) I'll be watching compared to last quarter: 2Q: Cash and Short Term Investments: $144,347,000 Total debt: $274,431,000 ($226,124 senior notes, $39,478 Mid-Cap Facility, $8,829,000 Mann GroupTotal Shares Outstanding: 268,235,000 Product Sales: $29,278,000 Services: $278,000 Royalties: $19,055,000 |
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Post by peppy on Nov 29, 2023 13:02:54 GMT -5
anderson wrote,.......................Thank you Anderson Terms of Current Debts Nov 30, 2022 at 7:37am $230 mil notes can convert at $5.21. So if share price goes above $5.21 before 1 DEC 2025 there shouldn't be a problem with the $230 debt, just dilution from the conversion which should not surprise anyone. $8.8 mil Mann Group can convert $2.50, so these will be converted. $40 mil Midcap. This is the bad one. "The Company must also comply with a financial covenant relating to trailing twelve month minimum Afrezza net revenue, tested on a monthly basis, unless the Company has $90.0 million or more of unrestricted cash and short-term investments." So the Midcap loan actually ties up $50 million more than is needed to repay it since Afrezza net revenue is not on target. Midcap has an interest cap of 8.5% so if Mannkind can invest and get returns greater than that it isn't a problem. It also has early termination fees, which drop to the min of 1% after April 22, 2023. Loan repayments start September 1, 2023, until paid in full on August 1, 2025. So Mannkind will probably just pay back as scheduled, unless they get in a bind and need to drop below the $90 mil reserve. This also explains why they are not spending a lot of cash. So at current burn 14.4 mil a quarter (177.8-90)/14.4 = 6 quarters at current burn before we go below the 90 mil.
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