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Post by ktim on Dec 2, 2023 17:54:56 GMT -5
Yeah, Scary stuff. He basically announced our eminent closure. So deflated. Tough to watch a CEO just giving up like that. (Dripping with sarcasm) You have to really take notice of a CEO that's saying good things about his company. That happens so rarely, it must mean things are really terrific.  |
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Post by ktim on Dec 2, 2023 18:28:41 GMT -5
All this discussion of guidance makes me wish MNKD had done that earlier. Part of the disappointment was that investors, including myself, did not realize the dynamics of Tyvaso DPI royalty recognition and thus assumed unrealistic growth rate after the Q2 earnings. The growth trajectory seems to be really good, but there was no guidance along the way to build realistic expectations. And it's not just those of us long invested in MNKD and thus perhaps susceptible to wishful thinking. Our "analysts" (taken with grain of salt) decreased earnings estimates by over 30% for next year. Having that happen amidst such good things happening for MNKD this past year certainly seems like a failure in communication from management.
I actually appreciate that they now are giving some guidance and more useful information. A bit painful because it came as sort of a bitter pill, after feeding on honey for a few quarters, but sometimes needed things leave an aftertaste. Hopefully this was the often beneficial exercise of under promise to over deliver. Will they be setting up now to consistently beat analysts estimates?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 5, 2023 23:07:07 GMT -5
Thoughts on this board is amazing ! I can't see anything wrong with "cash flow breakeven". Have we been here before? New horizon coming up ... maybe in a year or so ... we may see a penny dividend pop up to start us off. So don't listen to "shorts" who tell you to sell all your cheap shares. But, that's mytakeonit , I hope you don’t wait a year to post again. Miss ya MTOI. |
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Post by longliner on Dec 6, 2023 20:07:42 GMT -5
It's always darkest before the dawn. Interesting times are upon us. Run if you must, or, act like an owner.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 6, 2023 23:42:11 GMT -5
Thankfully, it doesn’t seem dark to me. It actually is starting to feel like a “normal” company that works to return shareholder value through sales of existing products and development of new products. That’s a huge improvement over hoping against hope that somehow someone pulls off a miracle that manages to save the company from bankruptcy to sell the one, single, FDA approved, product, and make all the shareholders happy. That didn’t feel normal. That felt amost insurmountable.
The company’s CFO most recent earnings report showed a profit, a positive earning per share for the first time in the history of a company stretching back 20+ years.
The guidance was more quarters like the last one, hovering around Cash Flow Break Even, until $40M+ of debt is paid off in 24 months using operating capital, not dilution. A much larger amount of debt is expected to be paid off at nearly the same time withi convertible notes, which is dilution, but at which point the company will be quite nearly debt free, and at which point Afrezza should be profitable, Tyvaso DPI royalties could be substantially larger, and, with luck and effort, revenue in the wings from nebulized Clofazamine.
I’m ok with that trajectory, and remain hopeful and most comfortable I’ve been since MannKind inked the (ultimately disastrous) $1B+ worldwide marketing agreement with Sanofi. We’re reliant upon UTHR for the time being, but so far, this arrangement is working out much better than the one with Sanofi.
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Post by longliner on Dec 6, 2023 23:46:17 GMT -5
Thankfully, it doesn’t seem dark to me. It actually is starting to feel like a “normal” company that works to return shareholder value through sales of existing products and development of new products. That’s a huge improvement over hoping against hope that somehow someone pulls off a miracle that manages to save the company from bankruptcy to sell the one, single, FDA approved, product, and make all the shareholders happy. That didn’t feel normal. That felt amost insurmountable. The company’s CFO most recent earnings report showed a profit, a positive earning per share for the first time in the history of a company stretching back 20+ years. The guidance was more quarters like the last one, hovering around Cash Flow Break Even, until $40M+ of debt is paid off in 24 months using operating capital, not dilution. A much larger amount of debt is expected to be paid off at nearly the same time withi convertible notes, which is dilution, but at which point the company will be quite nearly debt free, and at which point Afrezza should be profitable, Tyvaso DPI royalties could be substantially larger, and, with luck and effort, revenue in the wings from nebulized Clofazamine. I’m ok with that trajectory, and remain hopeful and most comfortable I’ve been since MannKind inked the (ultimately disastrous) $1B+ worldwide marketing agreement with Sanofi. We’re reliant upon UTHR for the time being, but so far, this arrangement is working out much better than the one with Sanofi. You're an owner. |
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Post by cretin11 on Dec 7, 2023 5:25:04 GMT -5
It's always darkest before the dawn. Interesting times are upon us. Run if you must, or, act like an owner. Weird take. Don’t see how anyone could view this as the “darkest” time for MNKD. Thanks to Martine and UTHR, we have a 10% royalty stream which is enough to keep us afloat despite the continued inability to gain traction with Afrezza. Some of us have been here since Afrezza CRL and Sanofi debacle, if we didn’t “run” those times we already proved our stubbornness (some might say our bad judgement, some might say “acting like an owner”). 😆 |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 7, 2023 7:21:02 GMT -5
It's always darkest before the dawn. Interesting times are upon us. Run if you must, or, act like an owner. Weird take. Don’t see how anyone could view this as the “darkest” time for MNKD. Thanks to Martine and UTHR, we have a 10% royalty stream which is enough to keep us afloat despite the continued inability to gain traction with Afrezza. Some of us have been here since Afrezza CRL and Sanofi debacle, if we didn’t “run” those times we already proved our stubbornness (some might say our bad judgement, some might say “acting like an owner”). 😆 Longliner speaks for themselves but I think it might be a reaction to a flurry of recent posts which try to cast the last several years and the current situation as bleak and miserable and the management as incompetent and which is a weird take. |
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Post by cretin11 on Dec 7, 2023 8:06:13 GMT -5
Fair enough. Sometimes it’s weird the things that people find weird. 😆
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Post by longliner on Jan 4, 2024 15:24:03 GMT -5
MNKD is hugely undervalued today. Sagard royalty agreement helps us put an approx value on Tyvaso DPI royalty that today should be worth approx $2 billion. Sagard valued 1% of Tyvaso DPI royalty today at $200 million and that should value today MNKD remaining 9% @ $1.8 billion, a total approx value today for Tyvaso DPI royalty of $2 billion. This doesn't include MNKD manufacturing/supply income for their 10 year agreement with United, that today is worth approx another $500 million. So together, MNKD value today just based on its ownership in Tyvaso DPI should be around $2.5 billion. If you also add in value for MNKD other assets Technosphere Inhaled Drug Delivery Platform, Endo Platform and Orphan Lung Disease Platform/Pipeline, that should add conservatively another $1 billion to MNKD market value today
Tyvaso DPI = $2.5 billion
Remaining Assets = $500 million
Net Operating Loss Carry Over = $500 million
Mannkind Market Cap Today = $3.5 billion
Stock Price = $13
Thanks to kevinmik for todays value breakdown
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Post by biffn on Jan 5, 2024 9:37:51 GMT -5
quite the early-morning takedown. Any thoughts? looks like Pharma is taking a hit across-the-board.
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Post by standup on Jan 5, 2024 9:45:16 GMT -5
MNKD is hugely undervalued today. Sagard royalty agreement helps us put an approx value on Tyvaso DPI royalty that today should be worth approx $2 billion. Sagard valued 1% of Tyvaso DPI royalty today at $200 million and that should value today MNKD remaining 9% @ $1.8 billion, a total approx value today for Tyvaso DPI royalty of $2 billion. This doesn't include MNKD manufacturing/supply income for their 10 year agreement with United, that today is worth approx another $500 million. So together, MNKD value today just based on its ownership in Tyvaso DPI should be around $2.5 billion. If you also add in value for MNKD other assets Technosphere Inhaled Drug Delivery Platform, Endo Platform and Orphan Lung Disease Platform/Pipeline, that should add conservatively another $1 billion to MNKD market value today Tyvaso DPI = $2.5 billion Remaining Assets = $500 million Net Operating Loss Carry Over = $500 million Mannkind Market Cap Today = $3.5 billion Stock Price = $13 Thanks to kevinmik for todays value breakdown We are just one more of Mike's sales force restructurings away from success! |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 5, 2024 11:24:17 GMT -5
MNKD is hugely undervalued today. Sagard royalty agreement helps us put an approx value on Tyvaso DPI royalty that today should be worth approx $2 billion. Sagard valued 1% of Tyvaso DPI royalty today at $200 million and that should value today MNKD remaining 9% @ $1.8 billion, a total approx value today for Tyvaso DPI royalty of $2 billion. This doesn't include MNKD manufacturing/supply income for their 10 year agreement with United, that today is worth approx another $500 million. So together, MNKD value today just based on its ownership in Tyvaso DPI should be around $2.5 billion. If you also add in value for MNKD other assets Technosphere Inhaled Drug Delivery Platform, Endo Platform and Orphan Lung Disease Platform/Pipeline, that should add conservatively another $1 billion to MNKD market value today Tyvaso DPI = $2.5 billion Remaining Assets = $500 million Net Operating Loss Carry Over = $500 million Mannkind Market Cap Today = $3.5 billion Stock Price = $13 Thanks to kevinmik for todays value breakdown We are just one more of Mike's sales force restructurings away from success! The sales force is only active on the Insulin Business Unit (IBU) which is not mentioned in kevinmik's list and there's a reason for that. It's currently unimportant as a source of revenue. The IBU did what it needed which is to sustain MNKD long enough to permit the successful execution of the Treprostinil Phase 1 trial and resulting UTHR deal. Mock if you want, but why do you want to? |
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Post by cedafuntennis on Jan 6, 2024 12:01:38 GMT -5
Weird take. Don’t see how anyone could view this as the “darkest” time for MNKD. Thanks to Martine and UTHR, we have a 10% royalty stream which is enough to keep us afloat despite the continued inability to gain traction with Afrezza. Some of us have been here since Afrezza CRL and Sanofi debacle, if we didn’t “run” those times we already proved our stubbornness (some might say our bad judgement, some might say “acting like an owner”). 😆 Longliner speaks for themselves but I think it might be a reaction to a flurry of recent posts which try to cast the last several years and the current situation as bleak and miserable and the management as incompetent and which is a weird take. I doubt he meant darkest time for the company. What was said, was a general quote which applies to nature as transposed to everything in life. Someone here chose to misinterpret it and cause panic. That's what these people do, willingly or not. |
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Post by letitride on Jan 6, 2024 16:16:51 GMT -5
Optimism VS pessimism a point of view. To be an ism or not to be? Rise above it Lets go!
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