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Post by ronw77077 on Nov 9, 2023 17:14:30 GMT -5
MNKD 2024 and 2025With the Q3 disappointment and gnashing of teeth this is a good moment to look at 2024 and 2025. UT has reiterated multiple times its projection of a $4 billion run rate by the end of 2025. As an aside, at the UBS Biopharma conference call today, the MNKD speaker stated that what UT means is a quarter with $1 billion revenue. The question I am trying to solve is “What will TDPI revenues have to be to reach the $4 billion?” If we can figure that out, we can deduce royalties to MNKD, and in turn, total MNKD revenues. Below is a revenue projection model. Key to the numbers is: • UT’s actual revenues reported for Q3. • UT reported its year over year growth percentage for each drug as shown in the Table 1. Table 1 shows those growth percentages and applies them by product for 2024 and 2025. Note that using those growth percentages for the two years results in revenue of just over $3 billion ($3,057) in 2025, well below $4 billion. Tyvaso is the only product with significant growth potential. Table 2 instead applies growth rates of 50% and 25% to TDPI and Nebulizer, respectfully. The split assumed is approximately 2/3rd and 1/3rd . UT has said the split is in that range and is expected to continue. Those rates result in 2025 revenue of about $4 billion. The resulting royalties are $123 M and $185 M in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Table 3 has actual MNKD results for Q1-Q3 and estimated Q4 revenues. I use a WAG of $25 M for Q4 royalties. As shown, I assume that in in 2024 and 2025 Afrezza grows by 16%, V-Go is flat and Coll & Svcs grows by 6% each year. These numbers result in ~30% total revenue growth in both 2024 and 2025. When adding royalties and Coll & Svcs revenue the total revenues from UT are $175 M and $240 M. These are below the $250- $300 M per 10,000 users Mike C has stated; this suggests that either the percentage growth is understated, Mike C’s broad statement is high, or the user number has not yet reached 10,000. What is not included is any revenue from PEDS, IPF, or Clofazimine. Based on comments made, while PEDS and IPF may be approved by 12/2025 it is unlikely that revenues will be recognized in 2025. On the other hand, it seems quite likely that Clofazimine will generate revenue in 2025, perhaps even in 2024; I have no basis to assume what such amounts may be. The foregoing statements and numbers below posit many assumptions which should be questioned. I invite all of you to do so. If the projections are reasonable, we should all be pleased with a company able to report 30% annual top line growth. 
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Nov 9, 2023 17:45:14 GMT -5
Thanks for the work you put into this post. Very well done.
Could we also project earnings per share in 2024 and 2025 because we had a one cent per share positive earnings this quarter.
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Post by ronw77077 on Nov 11, 2023 9:41:48 GMT -5
I don't have a model built to accomplish the EPS estimate. However, looking at Yahoo Finance I see the six analysts have the following:
Revenue EPS
Avg. 264 M .12
Low 210 -.05
High 343 .30
Remarkable to me that my revenue estimate of $258 closely aligns with their average.
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Post by ronw77077 on Nov 11, 2023 12:27:46 GMT -5
I have re-listened to the Nov. 8 UBS Biopharma conference call. It provides a great deal more detail about UT’s expectations than we hear on the usual UT conference calls. For those who want to hear it, it can be found on the UT website under Events & Presentations.
Among the comments made by UT’s VP of Tech Ops are:
Expected sales by product:
Tyvaso (both types) – strong double-digit growth
Remodulin (the second highest revenue) – will remain flat
Orenitram & Unituxin - will continue with single digit growth
My takeaway is that this bolsters their dependence and expectations on Tyvaso to get to $4 billion.
Sales between TDPI and the nebulizer are now split 60/40 – we keep hearing different comments from UT.
The MNKD production improvements and new equipment underway will come online in the next 4-6 months. And, be able to support 25,000 patients
That will have a “fairly immediate” effect on sales
Over 4,000 patients have been treated with TDPI
IPF could bring upwards of 160,000 patients using both forms of Tyvaso
IPF could cause UT’s revenue to grow to $8 billion
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Post by longliner on Nov 11, 2023 16:50:02 GMT -5
Thanks ron!
After listening to the presentation it's clear the future of DPI in UTHR's portfolio is in it's infancy and going to be a huge part going forward!
It's also apparent (at least to me) who owns the Danbury Facility we currently lease.
This is the most informative presentation I have heard regarding UTHR's large investment that they are placing in Danbury and North Carolina,
both specifically dedicated to DPI.
The competitive advantage of Tyvaso DPI over their competitors was clearly articulated as well.
Huge things ahead for MNKD investors.
I encourage all MNKD investors to tune out the noise and listen for themselves.
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Post by tingtongtung on Nov 11, 2023 17:41:49 GMT -5
Thanks ron! .. It's also apparent (at least to me) who owns the Danbury Facility we currently lease.
.. You mean UTHR? |
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Post by tingtongtung on Nov 11, 2023 17:46:23 GMT -5
Dumb question.
How is MNKD handling their debt? Sorry - havent been current with all details. Debt is little too expensive now compared to last few years. Just wondering if there will be another Christmas massacre..
Didnt mean to start a fight. Just wanted to get some info.
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Post by bthomas55ep on Nov 11, 2023 19:04:13 GMT -5
Dumb question. How is MNKD handling their debt? Sorry - havent been current with all details. Debt is little too expensive now compared to last few years. Just wondering if there will be another Christmas massacre.. Didnt mean to start a fight. Just wanted to get some info. I certainly don't have the whole picture, however, the inference is being made that the company is currently (or has been very recently) using their ATM (at-the-market) facility to raise funds along with some cash (flow) to extinguish some of the nearer term maturities so as not to face a refinancing event in the current rate environment if possible. |
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Post by Clement on Nov 13, 2023 9:05:52 GMT -5
MNKD 2024 and 2025With the Q3 disappointment and gnashing of teeth this is a good moment to look at 2024 and 2025. UT has reiterated multiple times its projection of a $4 billion run rate by the end of 2025. As an aside, at the UBS Biopharma conference call today, the MNKD speaker stated that what UT means is a quarter with $1 billion revenue. The question I am trying to solve is “What will TDPI revenues have to be to reach the $4 billion?” If we can figure that out, we can deduce royalties to MNKD, and in turn, total MNKD revenues. Below is a revenue projection model. Key to the numbers is: • UT’s actual revenues reported for Q3. • UT reported its year over year growth percentage for each drug as shown in the Table 1. Table 1 shows those growth percentages and applies them by product for 2024 and 2025. Note that using those growth percentages for the two years results in revenue of just over $3 billion ($3,057) in 2025, well below $4 billion. Tyvaso is the only product with significant growth potential. Table 2 instead applies growth rates of 50% and 25% to TDPI and Nebulizer, respectfully. The split assumed is approximately 2/3rd and 1/3rd . UT has said the split is in that range and is expected to continue. Those rates result in 2025 revenue of about $4 billion. The resulting royalties are $123 M and $185 M in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Table 3 has actual MNKD results for Q1-Q3 and estimated Q4 revenues. I use a WAG of $25 M for Q4 royalties. As shown, I assume that in in 2024 and 2025 Afrezza grows by 16%, V-Go is flat and Coll & Svcs grows by 6% each year. These numbers result in ~30% total revenue growth in both 2024 and 2025. When adding royalties and Coll & Svcs revenue the total revenues from UT are $175 M and $240 M. These are below the $250- $300 M per 10,000 users Mike C has stated; this suggests that either the percentage growth is understated, Mike C’s broad statement is high, or the user number has not yet reached 10,000. What is not included is any revenue from PEDS, IPF, or Clofazimine. Based on comments made, while PEDS and IPF may be approved by 12/2025 it is unlikely that revenues will be recognized in 2025. On the other hand, it seems quite likely that Clofazimine will generate revenue in 2025, perhaps even in 2024; I have no basis to assume what such amounts may be. The foregoing statements and numbers below posit many assumptions which should be questioned. I invite all of you to do so. If the projections are reasonable, we should all be pleased with a company able to report 30% annual top line growth. I'd like to support Ron's proposal of 50% annual T-DPI growth for 2024 and 2025 by saying: if T-DPI grows by a modest 11% each quarter, the annual goal of 50% is achieved. (To verify, just run it on your calculator.) |
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Post by beardawg on Nov 13, 2023 11:29:04 GMT -5
MNKD 2024 and 2025With the Q3 disappointment and gnashing of teeth this is a good moment to look at 2024 and 2025. UT has reiterated multiple times its projection of a $4 billion run rate by the end of 2025. As an aside, at the UBS Biopharma conference call today, the MNKD speaker stated that what UT means is a quarter with $1 billion revenue. The question I am trying to solve is “What will TDPI revenues have to be to reach the $4 billion?” If we can figure that out, we can deduce royalties to MNKD, and in turn, total MNKD revenues. Below is a revenue projection model. Key to the numbers is: • UT’s actual revenues reported for Q3. • UT reported its year over year growth percentage for each drug as shown in the Table 1. Table 1 shows those growth percentages and applies them by product for 2024 and 2025. Note that using those growth percentages for the two years results in revenue of just over $3 billion ($3,057) in 2025, well below $4 billion. Tyvaso is the only product with significant growth potential. Table 2 instead applies growth rates of 50% and 25% to TDPI and Nebulizer, respectfully. The split assumed is approximately 2/3rd and 1/3rd . UT has said the split is in that range and is expected to continue. Those rates result in 2025 revenue of about $4 billion. The resulting royalties are $123 M and $185 M in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Table 3 has actual MNKD results for Q1-Q3 and estimated Q4 revenues. I use a WAG of $25 M for Q4 royalties. As shown, I assume that in in 2024 and 2025 Afrezza grows by 16%, V-Go is flat and Coll & Svcs grows by 6% each year. These numbers result in ~30% total revenue growth in both 2024 and 2025. When adding royalties and Coll & Svcs revenue the total revenues from UT are $175 M and $240 M. These are below the $250- $300 M per 10,000 users Mike C has stated; this suggests that either the percentage growth is understated, Mike C’s broad statement is high, or the user number has not yet reached 10,000. What is not included is any revenue from PEDS, IPF, or Clofazimine. Based on comments made, while PEDS and IPF may be approved by 12/2025 it is unlikely that revenues will be recognized in 2025. On the other hand, it seems quite likely that Clofazimine will generate revenue in 2025, perhaps even in 2024; I have no basis to assume what such amounts may be. The foregoing statements and numbers below posit many assumptions which should be questioned. I invite all of you to do so. If the projections are reasonable, we should all be pleased with a company able to report 30% annual top line growth. Why do you feel Clofazimine may generate revenue in 2024? We haven't even done a Phase 3 trial on it. Does the trial take only a few weeks or something? Doesn't approval take about a year after submission? |
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Post by BD on Nov 13, 2023 13:41:11 GMT -5
OK, guys, really no reason to quote the entire post each time for 1-sentence comments. Just sayin'.
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Post by beardawg on Nov 13, 2023 14:46:50 GMT -5
Sorry about that. I had planned to cut it down originally, but I didn't actually finish my comment and post it until a few days later. By that time I was like "I thought I sent this" and just clicked send.
I am taking your avatar to be directed at me..
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Post by bullorbear on Nov 13, 2023 15:05:39 GMT -5
Maintaining revenue line growth rate is a concern (for me). Looking at Q3 vs Q2, Afrezza is flat, v-go is down and Ty royalties fell to 6%. 2024/25 having Afrezza back to 15% and Ty dpi back to 50% seems overly optomistic. The analyst that currently have 2024 revenue at $264M (range of $210m to $343m) also have a SP target of $7.50 (range of $5 to $10). I see a big risk that the analyst are going to lower their revenue outlook and downgrade their SP targets accordingly.
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Post by Clement on Nov 13, 2023 15:27:16 GMT -5
Maintaining revenue line growth rate is a concern (for me). Looking at Q3 vs Q2, Afrezza is flat, v-go is down and Ty royalties fell to 6%. 2024/25 having Afrezza back to 15% and Ty dpi back to 50% seems overly optomistic. The analyst that currently have 2024 revenue at $264M (range of $210m to $343m) also have a SP target of $7.50 (range of $5 to $10). I see a big risk that the analyst are going to lower their revenue outlook and downgrade their SP targets accordingly. There's a slide for the earnings call that shows there was a ~3M pull-forward in Q2 for T-DPI royalty due to stocking inventory at specialty pharmas. This is also discussed in a post by standup at mnkd.proboards.com/post/257748/threadTake a look at standup's numbers and you can interpret that T-DPI growth has been more than 20% quarter over quarter for the last 2 quarters. 20% growth per quarter corresponds to more than 100% growth per year. |
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Post by bullorbear on Nov 13, 2023 18:04:51 GMT -5
Thank you Clement and Thread for tracking down. This makes a much better story on Dpi growth continuing at a phenomenal rate. Related - I noticed that UTHR has started showing Dpi as a separate line item in their revenue recap.
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