|
|
Post by stella on Nov 10, 2023 16:18:03 GMT -5
After the 3Q conference call, MNKD stock was walked down in a VERY orderly fashion to levels just below $3.50. The stock chart showed very little intraday volatility. Looks to me that 2 or more market-makers were playing catch with each other and slowly walking it down. Some have suggested that they're helping short-sellers exit/cover their short. I would submit that the damage is being done by whoever sold calls expiring on November 17. Look at the option chain. There are 11,609 contracts that strike at $3.50 or higher. Coincidence? I think the call writers are just getting a head-start at insuring those options expire worthless. By starting a week early, maybe they're hoping no one notices the manipulation. Is this legal? If it is, then it shouldn't be. Would be interested in other opinions.
|
|
|
|
Post by porkini on Nov 10, 2023 16:42:14 GMT -5
I don't have an answer for you, but welcome and thank you for your first contribution!  |
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Nov 10, 2023 17:45:36 GMT -5
Not illegal and unfortunately not unusual with MNKD. It is self-inflicted IMO. When the market has confidence in our ability to deliver results, the buyers will outnumber and overpower the sellers, share price will react accordingly. So the question is why the market’s (heck, our own insiders for that matter) lack of confidence?
|
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on Nov 10, 2023 18:29:25 GMT -5
After the 3Q conference call, MNKD stock was walked down in a VERY orderly fashion to levels just below $3.50. The stock chart showed very little intraday volatility. Looks to me that 2 or more market-makers were playing catch with each other and slowly walking it down. Some have suggested that they're helping short-sellers exit/cover their short. I would submit that the damage is being done by whoever sold calls expiring on November 17. Look at the option chain. There are 11,609 contracts that strike at $3.50 or higher. Coincidence? I think the call writers are just getting a head-start at insuring those options expire worthless. By starting a week early, maybe they're hoping no one notices the manipulation. Is this legal? If it is, then it shouldn't be. Would be interested in other opinions. If some have suggested that market makers are walking down the price then some have misconceptions about how the process works. Aside from that not being in the market makers interest, market makers don't care in the slightest about shorts or longs as they make their money on the spread and not the price action. It is illegal and the SEC monitor specifically for that which market makers know. As for the options - if you can tell what's motivating buyers and sellers you have a golden future ahead of you. At a guess though the 17th is a monthly option so those tend to be longer term positions. That being the case a fair number of those calls at $4.50, but definitely $5.00 and up are people writing covered calls and that is distorting your view. The battleground is $4.00 and $3.50. This is little to do with manipulation, and much more to do with UTHR giving an odd result on DPI, and there being no near term catalyst for MNKD. The price didn't start dropping after the MNKD call, it started dropping after the UTHR call. |
|
|
|
Post by JEvans on Nov 10, 2023 18:50:36 GMT -5
It had been going down weeks prior to the earnings call.
MCs and Binders little white lies about cash on hand and paying down debt along with poor Afrezza sales may really be the culprit and possible artificially manipulating the books to show .01 PPS positive earnings for the 1st time.
But, I've been a buyer at these levels for sure in small increments as it may go down even further, I'm holding off to buy more as it does.
Maybe then MC and Binder won't dilute shares and buy down debt with them. I'm not an expert on this allegation, but that's what I'm reading between the lines here on ProBoard, I hope I'm wrong.
|
|
|
|
Post by standup on Nov 10, 2023 18:52:41 GMT -5
After the 3Q conference call, MNKD stock was walked down in a VERY orderly fashion to levels just below $3.50. The stock chart showed very little intraday volatility. Looks to me that 2 or more market-makers were playing catch with each other and slowly walking it down. Some have suggested that they're helping short-sellers exit/cover their short. I would submit that the damage is being done by whoever sold calls expiring on November 17. Look at the option chain. There are 11,609 contracts that strike at $3.50 or higher. Coincidence? I think the call writers are just getting a head-start at insuring those options expire worthless. By starting a week early, maybe they're hoping no one notices the manipulation. Is this legal? If it is, then it shouldn't be. Would be interested in other opinions. If some have suggested that market makers are walking down the price then some have misconceptions about how the process works. Aside from that not being in the market makers interest, market makers don't care in the slightest about shorts or longs as they make their money on the spread and not the price action. It is illegal and the SEC monitor specifically for that which market makers know. As for the options - if you can tell what's motivating buyers and sellers you have a golden future ahead of you. At a guess though the 17th is a monthly option so those tend to be longer term positions. That being the case a fair number of those calls at $4.50, but definitely $5.00 and up are people writing covered calls and that is distorting your view. The battleground is $4.00 and $3.50. This is little to do with manipulation, and much more to do with UTHR giving an odd result on DPI, and there being no near term catalyst for MNKD. The price didn't start dropping after the MNKD call, it started dropping after the UTHR call. I'm interested to understand exactly how market makers walk down the share price. |
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Nov 10, 2023 19:11:01 GMT -5
After the 3Q conference call, MNKD stock was walked down in a VERY orderly fashion to levels just below $3.50. The stock chart showed very little intraday volatility. Looks to me that 2 or more market-makers were playing catch with each other and slowly walking it down. Some have suggested that they're helping short-sellers exit/cover their short. I would submit that the damage is being done by whoever sold calls expiring on November 17. Look at the option chain. There are 11,609 contracts that strike at $3.50 or higher. Coincidence? I think the call writers are just getting a head-start at insuring those options expire worthless. By starting a week early, maybe they're hoping no one notices the manipulation. Is this legal? If it is, then it shouldn't be. Would be interested in other opinions. If some have suggested that market makers are walking down the price then some have misconceptions about how the process works. Aside from that not being in the market makers interest, market makers don't care in the slightest about shorts or longs as they make their money on the spread and not the price action. It is illegal and the SEC monitor specifically for that which market makers know. As for the options - if you can tell what's motivating buyers and sellers you have a golden future ahead of you. At a guess though the 17th is a monthly option so those tend to be longer term positions. That being the case a fair number of those calls at $4.50, but definitely $5.00 and up are people writing covered calls and that is distorting your view. The battleground is $4.00 and $3.50. This is little to do with manipulation, and much more to do with UTHR giving an odd result on DPI, and there being no near term catalyst for MNKD. The price didn't start dropping after the MNKD call, it started dropping after the UTHR call. Exactly agedhippie I posted this is in another thread that got little notice but, you recognized the timing of the pressure as exactly on the same day as UTHRs CC., as I saw it. Overlay that on top of the sector performance with pressure on the XBI (down +5% Wed/THU) and LABU (down +20% as well) though LABU being an ETF is more reflective of the overall sector going out with the tide, as did MNKD getting caught up with it. Thing is, from what we learned a few weeks go regarding UTHR, royalties are paid as soon as the supply of DPI is dropped into their inventory and not at the point of sale? Did that change? Or, was the the C&S rebates "cost plus?" |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 19, 2023 15:03:22 GMT -5
If some have suggested that market makers are walking down the price then some have misconceptions about how the process works. Aside from that not being in the market makers interest, market makers don't care in the slightest about shorts or longs as they make their money on the spread and not the price action. It is illegal and the SEC monitor specifically for that which market makers know. As for the options - if you can tell what's motivating buyers and sellers you have a golden future ahead of you. At a guess though the 17th is a monthly option so those tend to be longer term positions. That being the case a fair number of those calls at $4.50, but definitely $5.00 and up are people writing covered calls and that is distorting your view. The battleground is $4.00 and $3.50. This is little to do with manipulation, and much more to do with UTHR giving an odd result on DPI, and there being no near term catalyst for MNKD. The price didn't start dropping after the MNKD call, it started dropping after the UTHR call. I'm interested to understand exactly how market makers walk down the share price. I cannot give you an exact answer but I’ve read before there is something called a “bid/ask widen spread” manipulation that I’ve seen described as market makers playing “pitch/catch” using a high volume of miniscule share price differences (e.g., hundredth or even thousandth of a cent). I’ve also read there are 300+ so-called market makers and that there is ample historical evidence of manipulative practices hence the laws and regulatory efforts to curtail such behavior. I used to be convinced this was wide-spread and a direct contributor to MNKD share price manipulation, and partly because of MNKD appearing on the SEC’s SHO list (I think in 2015) and partly because that scumbag ex-con Martin Shkreli who hated Al Mann and MNKD and who was a protoge of Cramer who’s been flamboyant describing ways stocks are manipulated. And maybe back in 2015, all that, and more, was going on. More recently I’ve become somewhat sanguine about it and while I acknowledge manipulation no doubt continues, I am not convinced it is a major factor for MNKD shareprice movement. There’s a saying about following the “smart money” which I assume means pay attention to what the large investor funds are doing. MNKD was mostly owned by retail investors during the years where the share price dipped below $1 both pre and post the reverse split around late 2016 (IIRC), but that has changed and now large institutions are the majority shareholders. So now I assume the share price is mainly “manipulated” by ordinary market forces. I agree that the UTHR “surprise” on lackluster increase in sales of Tyvaso DPI in their most recent earnings report following a blow-out quarter, combined with Stephen Binder’s comments that MNKD may, or may not show positive earnings per share for the next “few” (or several?) quarters have labled MNKD “dead money” as far as traders are concerned and so the result was increased selling. None of what I’ve said accounts for the share price being manipulated around options expiry (which I do think does still happen) but its because I don’t understand how that works or what are the primary drivers of it. |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Nov 20, 2023 16:12:29 GMT -5
prcgorman2For long term trends the only real manipulation comes from bulk of buyers vs sellers. More buyers willing to put in money manipulates up and more people pulling money out (or actual addition to open short interest) manipulates price down. The significant caveat to this that has really bit MNKD in the past is when a company gets themselves in a situation where their ability to finance their operations is dependent on share price. Then they become susceptible to short term manipulators (traders), where the short term can actually influence the long term value of shares. Other than that, manipulation by traders (in either direction) will be negated over time by fundamentals of the company's earning potential. As for options expiry and manipulation, it's not as if receiving assignment of an option is the end of the world. If someone sells a $4 call, they make the full premium if the price is below $4 at expiration, but it's not as if the trade is a loss if the share price closes at $4.01. It's simply reduced their profit by a slight bit. It probably does happen that prices are pushed around when possible to avoid assignments, but it really isn't as big a deal as seems to be portrayed by many. In recent years I've been active in writing (selling short) a lot of puts. Many times I've arrived at expiry with the option in the money, but still having made money on the trade. If I don't fancy holding the stock, I simply get assigned and then immediately sell the shares. It really doesn't matter to me whether the price is a bit above or below the strike price.
|
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 20, 2023 16:19:16 GMT -5
I can't imagine ordinary traders are what drives share price to around an options expiry share price. But, it might just be I lack sufficient imagination.
|
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Nov 20, 2023 16:31:37 GMT -5
Many here have pretty vivid imaginations when it comes to market dynamics.
I know I lack imagination. I tend to be an Occam's Razor observer of the markets.
|
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Nov 20, 2023 17:06:50 GMT -5
ktim you totally nailed it with your several paragraph explanation above. That's an outstanding post I hope everyone reads. At least everyone who still believes manipulation is a major factor for MNKD share price movement. And kudos prcgorman for being openminded enough to change your view on it. I'm not judgmental towards those who still believe manipulation is a major factor in our price, because I once was in that camp. I get it. And who knows, as you said gorman maybe eight or so years ago there was something to it. However, anyone who is objective and allows their view to evolve will IMO come around to what ktim states (and some of us have been saying for a while).
To those who feel the urge to kneejerk react against my "bashing" here, it is not bashing and in fact is the opposite: because it means that IF we perform and deliver results, manipulation cannot and will not be able to hold our share price down. Now let's take care of that "IF"!
|
|
|
|
Post by awesomo on Nov 20, 2023 18:18:32 GMT -5
The biggest reason for the walkdown is our own management team stealth diluting shareholders 20%.
|
|
|
|
Post by cjm18 on Nov 20, 2023 22:01:09 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 20, 2023 23:53:14 GMT -5
The biggest reason for the walkdown is our own management team stealth diluting shareholders 20%. A “walk down” would be manipulation. A haircut because of dilution would not. Shareholders who pay attention are aware of the ATM facility, and by-and-large, MannKind has done a masterful job of managing debt and cash since Mike became CEO. If they hadn’t, MannKind wouldn’t be here. The “December surprise” is an arguable exception but even then there was no telling that the market would recover and MannKind was still funding operations with crippled share prices (thanks to pre-Mike reverse split), meager revenues, and “toxic” debt leftover from the Pfeffer CFO/CEO years. I don’t track the details but if memory serves, quite a bit of debt is coming due in the next 18 months or so and I assume Stephen Binder is busy doing what he can to manage through the situation given available revenues and high interest rates. The surprisingly flat sales growth of Tyvaso DPI from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter and Binder’s comments on a “few quarters” of near zero improvement in EPS is probably more responsible than anything else for the beat down on the share price. I assume traders put their money where they think it can grow and can re-initiate or add to their MNKD position if/when material growth is more or less assured. |
|
