Possible reasons MNKD is being walked down to $3.50?

[wmdhunt]

It's hard not to be shocked by the number of shares our CEO has sold this year. Wish my shares had a basis of $0 like his. Between short sellers and CEO's this has been a very rough road.

[prcgorman2]

I'm not shocked or dismayed.

[MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan]

I certainly am!!!

[prcgorman2]

Why? Is their compensation out of line with other executives of similar sized companies within the same industrial sector?

[cretin11]

Dismayed, yes. Shocked, no.

[MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan]

Nov 27, 2023 14:44:53 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

Why? Is their compensation out of line with other executives of similar sized companies within the same industrial sector?

I didn't say anything about anyone's compensation.

I'm not sure if you were responding to me or not, but I was responding to your critique of WMDHunt's well-reasoned and insightful post about the large number of shares that the MNKD CEO has sold practically (if not every) month so far this year.

You know, wmdhunt, the poster that you just accused of spreading FUD, when he didn't even call you names or say that you are spreading disinformation about the CEO.

Divorce, schmivorce. The haze has lifted and the picture is a little more clear now. Now that MC is probably (and conveniently) done selling his shares for over $4, they announce that their earnings will be around zero for several quarters, driving the share-price down to $3.50 and making all of our investments dead money for a year or so (or, maybe more).

Right, cretin, I probably shouldn't have been shocked, either. But, I was. Silly me. I was happily strung along by the CEO, thinking that MNKD has finally moved into profitability. And, I was certainly dismayed to learn that it has not.

And again, PRC, I have to counter the god-like picture that you persistently paint of the CEO. That is not factual. It is only your opinion.

My opinion is that Steven Binder is a great CFO, but MC is an average-to-less-than-average CEO ... but, a CEO that has sold many of his shares for over $4.00 and successfully (and probably proudly) met his goal for the year that was set forward by the board.

He is probably sitting in his office with his feet on the desk, and gloating as he adds another feather to his cap.

Meanwhile, the chair that us shareholders (the people that MC has been repeatedly claiming that he is so concerned about) just had our seats suddenly dropped from the recent $4.20 peg, down below $3.50, where it will remain … for the next several quarters. Ouch.

Yes, I'm shocked and dismayed, alright.

[standup]

A definite absence of buying pressure.

[Chris-C]

I was astounded that Binder announced that the company's performance would probably be tepid for several quarters. I've never heard a CFO do that. Generally, MNKD has never provided guidance (AFAIK) so this projection seemed very unusual to me. It was tailor-made for shorts adding to their position, and indeed it assured that MNKD will be a dead-in-the-water investment for at least the next year. To put it mildly, I'm not pleased, even though I've grown accustomed to disappointment from this company. WIthout a doubt, this is the worst investment I've ever made, and I've made some doozies.

[longliner]

It appears to me that UTHR owns the Danbury Facility, and we have parted ways with RLS, presumably because we need every inch of space in Danbury for UTHR products. We still have Afrezza, I would not be surprised to see it divested when the deal closes. There's not much in the way of a defense being put forward by the company to support the stock price. It looks surprisingly similar to the last diabetes company I owned that was bought out. (At one hell of a premium to the stock price!) 

In other words whiners...it may be time to put on your big girl panties......

[prcgorman2]

Whining about executive compensation is the sound of flatulence unless there is empirical data to back it up. Executives are humans and employees and are allowed to sell stock and in some cases are required to sell stock so I ignore it unless someone can provide evidence of egregious practices as compared to other executives and employees of other companies of similar size and composition within their industrial sector. I never see that evidence presented on ProBoards or anywhere else. What I see is investors whining about compensation (as though they have evidence it is bad or wrong) and performance (as though they could do better). I’m going to call it out for what it is everytime.

I wasn’t as surprised by Binder being forthright about EPS being flat and waffling between positive and negative values as I was about UTHR’s growth in sales being so limited. It’s been said here by ronw (IIRC) and others that earnings growth is constrained by Danbury manufacturing capacity. What a lovely problem to have as long as it doesn’t persist for too long. The reason I wasn’t surprised about Binder’s comments was because I believe Binder and Castagna and the MNKD Board have been conservative in their spending to preserve cash but they have also given themselves aggressive goals to accomplish and there is a chunk of debt coming due in the next 18 months (is my memory). Initiating and completing studies and trials is an expense MannKind was unable to afford when MC took over, and it is time consuming. I think the guidance is prudent and appropriate and I half suspect under promise and over deliver may be the experience.

Lastly, I believe those that were concerned about the large authorization to issue more shares were right that it would add an overhang, similar to debt, to the share price. I think most of us are tired of the opportunity to add to our position while share prices are cheap but our fatigue doesn’t mean the opportunity isn’t there.

[cretin11]

You can call it whining if you want, if it makes you feel better to put down longtime shareholders who are disappointed with events.

A few months ago we finally topped $5 and celebrated that, seemingly putting the $4s behind us as we approached CFBE. Some speculated we’d soon 5x that to $25, while you suggested we should be more cautious and accept a 2x to $10 by year end, with another 2x next year and the year after. Sounds good.

Since then we have ceo selling more shares, even when share price did go back into the $4s. Adding insult to injury was the public projection of tepid results to come, providing comfort to the shorts and pulling the rug from under longs (not the first time).

Will we get to that 2x ($10) by year end? It’s possible, but we’re closer to 1/2x than 2x now. I suspect no matter how low we go, how many shares our ceo sells, and how robust his comp package is (will we see another “125% of targets hit” this year?), you will still categorize any criticism as whining. I’ll defend your right to do that, after all it’s a message board and everyone’s entitled to their opinions, bizarre and otherwise.

[prcgorman2]

And you put down my rationalizations as bizarre and offer your own rationalizations for why it is OK to hate MNKD management and share price performance as though they haven’t done a heroic job of saving the company and putting it on even footing. Not saying every decision or news is good, but I’ve been privvy to corporate management and machinations long enough to not be so cynical of MNKD as cynical of views representing unreasonable expectations.

[cretin11]

You create a false narrative, fabricating that I say “it is OK to hate MNKD management” when I’ve never done that. If I have, please correct me with evidence, not your imagination.

I don’t hate anybody, much less MNKD management. I badly want them to succeed. I even voted for mc as “best ceo” in that bogus poll years ago, when I still had hopes for him. You’ve never seen me even advocate for the proposed lawsuit against management, so don’t invent that I support “hate” for them.

For you it appears to be emotional, you are “pulling for” your team and see any criticism as a personal attack. It’s like some fans of sports teams. I don’t doubt that mc has tried, maybe even given his best effort. Hard to say, because there are long periods of going dark where we don’t really know. But I’m willing to accept for the sake of argument that he’s given an honest and good faith effort. Well, now it’s been a lot of years, I’m entitled to my evaluation of the results and my belief that shareholders (and PWDs) deserve better. Hate does not enter the picture.

[Clement]

Here's what Binder actually said in the Q3 earnings call:
"Below the graph, I have plotted the earnings or loss per share for each quarter, and you can see the impact from the increasing revenues. In the third quarter, we've recognized earnings per share of $0.01. This is not a typo. We have hit a significant financial milestone. We have now entered a period where we expect to bounce back and forth between earnings and loss per share, I'll call it a breakeven period and then we expect to grow earnings per share assuming Tyvaso DPI continues its upward trajectory and the endocrine business unit increases its positive contribution."

finance.yahoo.com/news/mannkind-corporation-nasdaq-mnkd-q3-202735631.html

He was clearly talking about earnings.  He was not talking about revenues.

[MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan]

Thank you for posting that, Clement. It was good to read that again. I took a look at that link and I just wanted to post some other key info from the following paragraph (ie, the paragraph after Clement's above) from Steve ... which was his final paragraph.

As highlighted earlier, we expect to be plus or minus GAAP breakeven for a number of quarters before we expect to see net income growing on a continuous basis. I will conclude with some additional comments. In the third quarter, we started to pay down our senior secured debt based on our contractual obligation to pay the loan over 24 months beginning in September, and we expect to be able to pay off this debt over the next two years out of operating cash flow. We continue to tightly manage our cash flows and had a reduction in cash and investments of only $2 million in the third quarter as we expect to progress towards achieving positive operating cash flow in the near future.

Thank you and I'll now turn it back over to Mike.

This was still all not as bad as I recalled it. There is some good positive stuff in there, but I am still taken aback by the delay. I know, I know, there are a LOT of loans to be paid off, and I was often wondering how those would affect MNKD's future finances. I was still just the MNKD eternal, hopeful optimist.  So, it looks like they expect that delay to be somewhere between a number of quarters and 24 months, which would be December of 2025 (or, hopefully by Q3 2025).  

I sold all my non-core shares today at a loss.  My other stocks are doing very well in this nice bull run going on, so I will be putting those funds to good use.  I will decide if I want to start selling some of my core.  I'm really torn about that, but I'm not in my twenty's anymore, ya know what I mean?  

I also note that Yahoo Finance's posted 1-year target (I believe it is with 6 analysts) is $6.92. It was previously $7.50, but I doubt that many analysts updated their forecast post-Q3-EC.