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Post by cppoly on Dec 31, 2023 13:26:34 GMT -5
What is the biggest catalyst that MNKD has going for it in 2024?
Is it peds, clofazimine, Tyvaso DPI.... or something else?
Even if it's not one major event, many milestones are coming in 2024.
Just wanted to speculate on the biggest.
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Post by cjm18 on Dec 31, 2023 18:22:31 GMT -5
Inhale 1 results.
Inhale 3 results
Mnkd 101 trial starts
Mnkd 201 trial starts.
Near term tyvaso dpi sales are what matter most.
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Post by mymann on Dec 31, 2023 21:02:32 GMT -5
Sell the company for 2 billion would be a nice catalyst for 2024.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 1, 2024 11:02:03 GMT -5
Phase 2/3 trial for Clofazamine. It’s an orphan drug which is an important consideration for faster FDA approval and for marketing for treatment of Non-Tuberculosis Mycobacterium (NTM).
A close 2nd is the Pediatrics trial which may have the most significant effect on persuading prescribers, especially endocrinologists. But that won’t really be a catalyst until next year and even then it only solves (potentially) the prescriber reluctance issue but does not by itself solve for insurance coverage which is the other major hurdle for Afrezza. Until MannKind can solve both prescriber reluctance and puacity of insurance coverage, Afrezza (or any moderately expensive drug in such a situation) is unlikely to be as successful as it’s “life changing” benefits would suggest.
Tyvaso DPI is awesome and the single most important catalyst in the history of the current CEO, but to break out from being essentially a one (successful) drug manufacturer, MannKind needs another win and Clofazamine holds the most near-term potential.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 1, 2024 11:12:22 GMT -5
Sell the company for 2 billion would be a nice catalyst for 2024. The valuation you’ve suggested is interesting. I assume there are numerous reasons why there aren’t many (any?) buyers who wish to offer a greater than 100% premium on the existing market capitalization. Fast forward a couple of years where Afrezza may finally be seeing moderate growth in sales, clofazamine is adding to the coffers, and Tyvaso DPI is selling to expanded indications, and $2B may be the market capitalization for MNKD. Or will it? What does the market capitalization look like at the point where MNKD is substantially free of debt, profitable, and possibly on a trajectory for very profitable? Those extra shares may actually be a poison pill to thwart hostile takeover at that point. |
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Post by lennymnkd on Jan 1, 2024 13:55:48 GMT -5
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 1, 2024 14:59:03 GMT -5
He is 100% on the money with that. Stevil talked about it and why the $35 insulin cap is a killer in the Afrezza Medicare market. Until how the PBM could have Afrezza as a high tier drug and between the artificially high price making a high co-pay they made little or no loss. That has gone now as co-pays are capped at $35, but Afrezza's price has not dropped so with Medicare the PBM takes a big hit on anyone using Afrezza. The list price on Novolog is now around $72 for a vial if I remember correctly, the Afrezza equivalent (90x12u) lists for $535. At the moment MNKD doesn't have the volume to be able to reduce the price of Afrezza to where it would be competitive - they would make a major loss if they attempted to compete. Today's trick for those who are interested requires a VPN with an endpoint in the UK (I use NordVPN but that's not an endorsement, just a comment.) Go to this site using a VPN with the UK endpoint (https://bnf.nice.org.uk/drugs) and under the Medicinal Forms section for every drug it shows what the UK National Health System pays. At this point someone will say that the NHS covers an entire nation while US PBMs don't. The dirty little secret is that a PBM like Caremark is twice the number of members as the NHS so anything the NHS can do a PBM like Caremark should be able to as well. Case in point; since the video mentions GLP-1 drugs lets look at Trulicity for the UK vs. US cost. The NHS pays 92 GBP for a pack of 4 pens, in the US that lists at $1,113 for the same pack. Circling back to insulin. Even after the price reductions that come in after Jan 1st 2024 Novolog will cost $21 for a vial of Novolog, the US list is $72. This is before you realize that in the UK there is a zero co-pay to diabetics (actually it's a zero copay for all drugs if you are a diabetic, not just diabetes drugs.) I feel better for that little rant. And "death panels" exist in the US already, they are called PBMs. |
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