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Post by bthomas55ep on Apr 29, 2024 13:04:18 GMT -5
Just thinking about things that continue to add value (thus market valuation) to the enterprise:
* Just had the Clofazimine IND
* Expecting the Nintedinab IND momentarily
* Interim results from Peds trial imminently
* 1Q Earnings / Annual Shareholder Meeting
* Numerous Public Presentations leading into ADA in June
* CIPLA announcement of some kind
Lots of catalyst for positive momentum (and I suppose negative outcomes are also in the deck somewhere). Feeling pretty good about the next 6 weeks as the company tries to establish itself as a growth company once again. GLTA
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Post by ktim on Apr 30, 2024 15:17:03 GMT -5
Just thinking about things that continue to add value (thus market valuation) to the enterprise: * Just had the Clofazimine IND * Expecting the Nintedinab IND momentarily * Interim results from Peds trial imminently * 1Q Earnings / Annual Shareholder Meeting * Numerous Public Presentations leading into ADA in June * CIPLA announcement of some kind Lots of catalyst for positive momentum (and I suppose negative outcomes are also in the deck somewhere). Feeling pretty good about the next 6 weeks as the company tries to establish itself as a growth company once again. GLTA I'd be surprised if we had anything exciting that would truly be a catalyst for up or down movement. Seems everything coming up has expected results, probably fully priced in, and with little chance of disappointment. Doesn't everyone fully expect Afrezza works in children? Expect the INDs to get done? Expect India approval (for what little that will mean financially)? I guess from two earnings calls ago expectation for earnings were set pretty low for 1Q and 2Q, so possibility of a slight surprise there, but I'd doubt a penny or two extra earnings really would change anyone's opinion meaningfully. |
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Post by boytroy88 on Apr 30, 2024 19:24:22 GMT -5
Just thinking about things that continue to add value (thus market valuation) to the enterprise: * Just had the Clofazimine IND * Expecting the Nintedinab IND momentarily * Interim results from Peds trial imminently * 1Q Earnings / Annual Shareholder Meeting * Numerous Public Presentations leading into ADA in June * CIPLA announcement of some kind Lots of catalyst for positive momentum (and I suppose negative outcomes are also in the deck somewhere). Feeling pretty good about the next 6 weeks as the company tries to establish itself as a growth company once again. GLTA I'd be surprised if we had anything exciting that would truly be a catalyst for up or down movement. Seems everything coming up has expected results, probably fully priced in, and with little chance of disappointment. Doesn't everyone fully expect Afrezza works in children? Expect the INDs to get done? Expect India approval (for what little that will mean financially)? I guess from two earnings calls ago expectation for earnings were set pretty low for 1Q and 2Q, so possibility of a slight surprise there, but I'd doubt a penny or two extra earnings really would change anyone's opinion meaningfully. Why is it only with MNKD it's like that? Most other stocks that have a partial announcement of those listed would've spike their SP. Kind of makes you wonder about the conspiracies mentioned with MNKD. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 1, 2024 6:16:25 GMT -5
I have both the feeling we’re stuck in the doldrums and that as each of the items on bthomas55sep’s list progresses through their next steps that MNKD should finally break above and stay above $5. But my confidence is low that will actually happen because this stock has been stubbornly ungiving for buy-and-hold long-term shareholders such as myself.
One thing not on the list that I think will be a major catalyst is retirement of the $230M in convertible bond debt by late 2026, if not sooner. We know we expected the investors in the consortium of bond holders to short MNKD. ktim is of the opinion that the shorting happened and is no longer a consideration with respect to the slow improvement in share price. Yes, the share price has quintupled since the low of 80 cents post reverse split back in 2017, but few long-term shareholders enjoy a cost basis close to that low.
It’s not a catalyst per se, but I have to assume a profitable and debt-free MNKD with 20% CAGR or more, a giant amount of tax loss, and a promising pipeline will be a tempting target for acquisition. We may be in the doldrums at this point in time, but I don’t think it will last. mytakeonit’s consistent advice to “buy all the cheap shares you can” comes to mind.
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Post by cjm18 on May 1, 2024 8:09:47 GMT -5
June Ada could move needle if it causes an analyst upgrade. But that could be after q2 earnings.
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Post by celo on May 1, 2024 9:06:25 GMT -5
A great quarterly report should be a needle mover. It always amazes me when it is not. Uthr's report today will help.
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Post by cretin11 on May 1, 2024 9:43:58 GMT -5
A great quarterly report should be a needle mover. It always amazes me when it is not. As for our quarterly reports, I suspect it's not usually a needle mover because what we might consider "great" is different from what the street sees. We tend to be quite lenient with our assessments of quarterly results, while the street sees about what they expected. Ergo, the old "priced in" situation we've seen for years. Let's land a serious pipeline partnership and that could be our needle mover.... |
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 1, 2024 10:53:53 GMT -5
A great quarterly report should be a needle mover. It always amazes me when it is not. As for our quarterly reports, I suspect it's not usually a needle mover because what we might consider "great" is different from what the street sees. We tend to be quite lenient with our assessments of quarterly results, while the street sees about what they expected. Ergo, the old "priced in" situation we've seen for years. Let's land a serious pipeline partnership and that could be our needle mover.... Agree. Our pipeline partnership with UTHR started with a successful Treprostinil on TechnoSphere (TreT) Phase 1 clinical trial and is proof MannKind can move the needle and make good money with pipeline partners that aren't like Sanofi. It does make me wonder if nintedanib for IPF might be the now rarely mentioned "2nd molecule" that is an unknown part of the MNKD contract with UTHR. (Well, known to MNKD and UTHR, but unknown to most of us.) |
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Post by alethea on May 1, 2024 10:56:31 GMT -5
Last quarter (Q4 of 2023) was MNKD's best quarter by far in its history.
The 1st quarter of 2024 (very soon to be announced) will be much better yet thanks to the explosive growth of Tyvaso DPI revenue announced this morning by UTHR.
I suspect we will also see solid revenue growth in Afrezza.
And while the Street loves to "control" MNKD's stock price when positive news occurs, at some point that will cease when it becomes too unprofitable for them and they decide to start playing the game in the opposite direction.
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on May 1, 2024 11:50:36 GMT -5
I bought back in a little yesterday. 3.3% of my portfolio at $4.18. So, I had to stop in here to PB and see what's going on lately. Really, Cretin? We all know that Mike is not interested in the least with any partnerships. ;( Ha ha, Proboards is still the land of hopium and cool-aid ... two comforting drugs that I have been missing and feeling kinda strung-out without. My favorite stock in my portfolio now is AMZN, which has great fundamentals and forecast, and with earnings expected to grow over 50% in the next year. But, given it's huge size, I don't see it doubling anytime soon. Sure, it's safe, but it's also pretty boring, eh? I think I have been-strung out from the lack of hopium. And, would someone pass me that cool-aid already! I haven't seen any mention in what I have read here on PB so far today about double-digits, trajectory, or rocket-ships! I think Proboards is getting old like the rest of us. Seems more like a stage-coach now than a rocket-ship. And no mention of $20+. Just still trying to get back to $5.xx's, and stay out of the $3.xx's doldrums. Seems that as you get older, your dreams get less grandeur, but its still nice to dream. That wore me out. I need a nap.  |
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Post by cretin11 on May 1, 2024 14:02:18 GMT -5
LOL, good to see you back here MWMRP!
Yes I realize Mike has signaled a lack of interest in partnerships. It's my hope that he doesn't really mean what he said (it wouldn't be the first time). Surely he has learned the lessons from his attempts to commercialize Afrezza.
You may be able to cure your hopium jones, there's still a fair amount passed around here. You make an astute observation about less grandeur dreams, that is true. But hopefully more realistic ones than what used to be floated...
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Post by ktim on May 1, 2024 14:12:27 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if we had anything exciting that would truly be a catalyst for up or down movement. Seems everything coming up has expected results, probably fully priced in, and with little chance of disappointment. Doesn't everyone fully expect Afrezza works in children? Expect the INDs to get done? Expect India approval (for what little that will mean financially)? I guess from two earnings calls ago expectation for earnings were set pretty low for 1Q and 2Q, so possibility of a slight surprise there, but I'd doubt a penny or two extra earnings really would change anyone's opinion meaningfully. Why is it only with MNKD it's like that? Most other stocks that have a partial announcement of those listed would've spike their SP. Kind of makes you wonder about the conspiracies mentioned with MNKD. Can you provide some examples of other companies share price spiking on an IND submission or secondary drug approval in a market like Brazil or India? I've actually forgotten how much of a rise MNKD share price had when Brazil was approved, but it was probably more than other companies. I remember there was a ton of hype from people about how that was going to be a game changer for MNKD, where in reality it was approval in a market with pricing that just isn't going to move the needle much. With most companies a secondary approval in Brazil would have been totally ignored. MNKD certainly has catalysts to look forward to, just further out than the ones listed above. Though as it becomes clear, presuming it will, that Liquida isn't going to destroy Tyvaso DPI market, that is something that should drive shares higher. Not a one time catalyst, but playing out of the next year or so. I'd guess actual FDA approval for peds will help. |
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Post by cretin11 on May 1, 2024 14:26:35 GMT -5
Why is it only with MNKD it's like that? Most other stocks that have a partial announcement of those listed would've spike their SP. Kind of makes you wonder about the conspiracies mentioned with MNKD. I've actually forgotten how much of a rise MNKD share price had when Brazil was approved, but it was probably more than other companies. I remember there was a ton of hype from people about how that was going to be a game changer for MNKD, where in reality it was approval in a market with pricing that just isn't going to move the needle much. With most companies a secondary approval in Brazil would have been totally ignored. That sounds kinda like... manipulation! (But in the upward direction, so no complaints about those "crooks") |
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Post by sayhey24 on May 1, 2024 14:34:43 GMT -5
I bought back in a little yesterday. 3.3% of my portfolio at $4.18. So, I had to stop in here to PB and see what's going on lately. Really, Cretin? We all know that Mike is not interested in the least with any partnerships. ;( Ha ha, Proboards is still the land of hopium and cool-aid ... two comforting drugs that I have been missing and feeling kinda strung-out without. My favorite stock in my portfolio now is AMZN, which has great fundamentals and forecast, and with earnings expected to grow over 50% in the next year. But, given it's huge size, I don't see it doubling anytime soon. Sure, it's safe, but it's also pretty boring, eh? I think I have been-strung out from the lack of hopium. And, would someone pass me that cool-aid already! I haven't seen any mention in what I have read here on PB so far today about double-digits, trajectory, or rocket-ships! I think Proboards is getting old like the rest of us. Seems more like a stage-coach now than a rocket-ship. And no mention of $20+. Just still trying to get back to $5.xx's, and stay out of the $3.xx's doldrums. Seems that as you get older, your dreams get less grandeur, but its still nice to dream. That wore me out. I need a nap. I am not giving up on $20pps let alone $100. The way I see it, its really up to Mike. He has the greatest advance in diabetes care in over 100 years. As I have said for many years Tyvaso DPI will never make MNKD rich but it will pay the bills. For MNKD-101 and 201, he better get some partners. Lets hope for 101 its sooner than later and I would be OK with UTHR. We have ADA2024 happening next month. There seems to be some interesting movement in the industry toward afrezza. If you look at the Inhale-3 speaker lineup its an interesting list. Why after 10 years is this group coming forward and most likely going to say great things about afrezza? They have had 10 years. They are suppose to be experts. My guess is they are going to say nothing new to anyone who has been reading proboards. So why now? My guess is the kids study is going better than most expected. Once approved the moms will change the T1 market and these experts see it coming. We will see and I will keep dreaming. In fact I am going to dream tonight I see a PR tomorrow for a P1 study for Saxenda DPI. |
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Post by ktim on May 1, 2024 14:51:58 GMT -5
A great quarterly report should be a needle mover. It always amazes me when it is not. As for our quarterly reports, I suspect it's not usually a needle mover because what we might consider "great" is different from what the street sees. We tend to be quite lenient with our assessments of quarterly results, while the street sees about what they expected. Ergo, the old "priced in" situation we've seen for years. Let's land a serious pipeline partnership and that could be our needle mover.... MNKD released revenue projections, though in a format hard to discern quarterly numbers with any precision. Many here would interpret meeting those projections as "great" whereas in general meeting guidance is greeted as good, but the praise of truly great would be reserved to beating guidance and raising future guidance. If Afrezza and Tyvaso revenue were to be high enough that it is clearly outperforming the guidance that has been given, I would expect that to meaningfully boost share price. Currently I don't think the guidance is really fully priced in. I suspect because Tyvaso revenue is being discounted by a Liquida risk factor. So as quarters tick by, even meeting current guidance should see positive share price action, but not like it would be with guidance beats. |
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