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Post by prcgorman2 on May 1, 2024 15:31:22 GMT -5
LOL, good to see you back here MWMRP! Yes I realize Mike has signaled a lack of interest in partnerships. It's my hope that he doesn't really mean what he said (it wouldn't be the first time). Surely he has learned the lessons from his attempts to commercialize Afrezza. You may be able to cure your hopium jones, there's still a fair amount passed around here. You make an astute observation about less grandeur dreams, that is true. But hopefully more realistic ones than what used to be floated... I consider the UTHR deal a partnership and you may remember Mike was very interested. And don't try to sell me Dr. Rothblatt was throwing a bone. I don't believe it for a minute. She's a very shrewd CEO, doctor, and attorney. She partnered with Mike after the successful TreT Phase 1 trial. She bought another small company developing a treprostinil product, and tried to buy LQDA. After acquiring LQDA failed, she's sued their pants off and those moves have been a successful strategy for limiting and delaying competition.
Mike may have said he wasn't interested in a marketing partner for nintedanib, but I don't remember. It will make a great deal of sense if he did say that and it turns out nintedanib is the secret "2nd molecule" in the agreement with UTHR. A marketing agreement with UTHR could make sense since nintedanib DPI is being developed to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) for which the UTHR salesforce would be well suited.
I do recall Mike specifically saying he wasn't interested in a marketing partner for clofazimine, but I think he qualified that (as he has qualified marketing partners for Afrezza in the past) as not looking for a partner in the U.S. but would be open to considering a marketing partner internationally. NTM has a relatively small patient population which is one of the requirements for orphan drug designation. That may imply an outsourced marketing partner has less value and that the MannKind salesforce is sufficient. Mike indicated the reason for eschewing a partnership (in the U.S.) was because it would eat into profits. The good thing about having an active salesforce is it reduces the requirement to outsource marketing and so if nothing else, his stance could help ensure better terms for MannKind if they choose ultimately to outsource marketing of clofazimine. |
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Post by mango on May 1, 2024 15:46:33 GMT -5
A great quarterly report should be a needle mover. It always amazes me when it is not. As for our quarterly reports, I suspect it's not usually a needle mover because what we might consider "great" is different from what the street sees. We tend to be quite lenient with our assessments of quarterly results, while the street sees about what they expected. Ergo, the old "priced in" situation we've seen for years. Let's land a serious pipeline partnership and that could be our needle mover.... Why do we need another partnership? The UTHR partnership didn’t move the needle. Going solo and reaping all the profits is a needle mover. Even if we give away a small percentage to an international partner for Clofazimine to cover Asia Pacific region, we’d still be generating an enormous amount of revenue compared to giving it up for a partnership. |
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Post by mango on May 1, 2024 15:54:35 GMT -5
I bought back in a little yesterday. 3.3% of my portfolio at $4.18. So, I had to stop in here to PB and see what's going on lately. Really, Cretin? We all know that Mike is not interested in the least with any partnerships. ;( Ha ha, Proboards is still the land of hopium and cool-aid ... two comforting drugs that I have been missing and feeling kinda strung-out without. My favorite stock in my portfolio now is AMZN, which has great fundamentals and forecast, and with earnings expected to grow over 50% in the next year. But, given it's huge size, I don't see it doubling anytime soon. Sure, it's safe, but it's also pretty boring, eh? I think I have been-strung out from the lack of hopium. And, would someone pass me that cool-aid already! I haven't seen any mention in what I have read here on PB so far today about double-digits, trajectory, or rocket-ships! I think Proboards is getting old like the rest of us. Seems more like a stage-coach now than a rocket-ship. And no mention of $20+. Just still trying to get back to $5.xx's, and stay out of the $3.xx's doldrums. Seems that as you get older, your dreams get less grandeur, but its still nice to dream. That wore me out. I need a nap.  I am not giving up on $20pps let alone $100. The way I see it, its really up to Mike. He has the greatest advance in diabetes care in over 100 years. As I have said for many years Tyvaso DPI will never make MNKD rich but it will pay the bills. For MNKD-101 and 201, he better get some partners. Lets hope for 101 its sooner than later and I would be OK with UTHR. We have ADA2024 happening next month. There seems to be some interesting movement in the industry toward afrezza. If you look at the Inhale-3 speaker lineup its an interesting list. Why after 10 years is this group coming forward and most likely going to say great things about afrezza? They have had 10 years. They are suppose to be experts. My guess is they are going to say nothing new to anyone who has been reading proboards. So why now? My guess is the kids study is going better than most expected. Once approved the moms will change the T1 market and these experts see it coming. We will see and I will keep dreaming. In fact I am going to dream tonight I see a PR tomorrow for a P1 study for Saxenda DPI. Why should Mike care to partner with Clofazimine (outside of an Asia Pacific region partner which is necessary)? Why should he partner for Nintedanib DPI (again, outside of any international partnership)? Why would you want Mike to give away huge percentages of revenue to partners from those two products when we have the capability to go solo and reap all, or majority, of the rewards? That’s how you move the needle. And before you or someone else mentions Afrezza as an example of why, let’s all remember that the SoC for NTM and IPF aren’t red taped like diabetes. There is very few effective treatments and they aren’t that great anyway, right? That’s why they’re in our pipeline. |
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Post by ktim on May 1, 2024 16:13:46 GMT -5
As for our quarterly reports, I suspect it's not usually a needle mover because what we might consider "great" is different from what the street sees. We tend to be quite lenient with our assessments of quarterly results, while the street sees about what they expected. Ergo, the old "priced in" situation we've seen for years. Let's land a serious pipeline partnership and that could be our needle mover.... Why do we need another partnership? The UTHR partnership didn’t move the needle. Going solo and reaping all the profits is a needle mover. Even if we give away a small percentage to an international partner for Clofazimine to cover Asia Pacific region, we’d still be generating an enormous amount of revenue compared to giving it up for a partnership. The share price jumped 89% the day UTHR deal was announced (how often does that happen with companies), and up considerably more as the partnership has played out and turned into revenue. I don't have any particular opinion about partnerships or not for pipeline, as I have no expertise in drug marketing. My perspective would be that MNKD is thankfully no longer in a desperate financial situation, so whatever route they take should be a decision being made by knowledgeable people to maximize long term shareholder value without need to factor near term survival into the decision. |
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Post by sayhey24 on May 1, 2024 16:40:02 GMT -5
As for our quarterly reports, I suspect it's not usually a needle mover because what we might consider "great" is different from what the street sees. We tend to be quite lenient with our assessments of quarterly results, while the street sees about what they expected. Ergo, the old "priced in" situation we've seen for years. Let's land a serious pipeline partnership and that could be our needle mover.... Why do we need another partnership? The UTHR partnership didn’t move the needle. Going solo and reaping all the profits is a needle mover. Even if we give away a small percentage to an international partner for Clofazimine to cover Asia Pacific region, we’d still be generating an enormous amount of revenue compared to giving it up for a partnership. Mike has a proven track record of not knowing how to sell. How many different "endocrine" sales teams have we had, four waves? Every time we heard how it was going to be different this time. Remember when we were going to put V-Go in the "reps bags" and that was going to do it? What happened? Just as predicted here, the key account doctors asked what we were doing and we went on an apology tour. Tyvaso DPI clearly moved the needle. Without it the pps would be $0. MNKD would be bankrupt. Could we have negotiated a better deal than 10%, maybe. Could we do better than 10% with MNKD-101? I would sure hope so but MNKD-101 is still small potatoes when compared to the potential of afrezza. Speaking of potential how about Technosphere? Albert Bourla was just on TV and is still struggling with his weight-loss glp1 pill. He said they have 3 molecules they are working on now. He wants an "oral" and keeps trying to make a pill but so far too many get belly aches. How about we put them on Technosphere and see if it helps with the nausea which Peter Richardson predicted it would. Maybe we could get 15% of one of those but I would take 10%. |
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Post by mango on May 1, 2024 16:40:02 GMT -5
Why do we need another partnership? The UTHR partnership didn’t move the needle. Going solo and reaping all the profits is a needle mover. Even if we give away a small percentage to an international partner for Clofazimine to cover Asia Pacific region, we’d still be generating an enormous amount of revenue compared to giving it up for a partnership. The share price jumped 89% the day UTHR deal was announced (how often does that happen with companies), and up considerably more as the partnership has played out and turned into revenue. I don't have any particular opinion about partnerships or not for pipeline, as I have no expertise in drug marketing. My perspective would be that MNKD is thankfully no longer in a desperate financial situation, so whatever route they take should be a decision being made by knowledgeable people to maximize long term shareholder value without need to factor near term survival into the decision. PPS is still under $5. It wasn’t really a needle mover. Sagard values the deal more than that, but alas, somehow “The Street” doesn’t. Our PPS is a true anomaly. |
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Post by awesomo on May 1, 2024 16:42:34 GMT -5
As for our quarterly reports, I suspect it's not usually a needle mover because what we might consider "great" is different from what the street sees. We tend to be quite lenient with our assessments of quarterly results, while the street sees about what they expected. Ergo, the old "priced in" situation we've seen for years. Let's land a serious pipeline partnership and that could be our needle mover.... Why do we need another partnership? The UTHR partnership didn’t move the needle. Going solo and reaping all the profits is a needle mover. Even if we give away a small percentage to an international partner for Clofazimine to cover Asia Pacific region, we’d still be generating an enormous amount of revenue compared to giving it up for a partnership. Without the UTHR partnership, MannKind would have been in a financial death spiral. |
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Post by cretin11 on May 1, 2024 16:43:20 GMT -5
The UTHR partnership absolutely moved the needle. Without it we'd likely have faced another reverse split to avoid delisting. With it, we are still floundering around the Mendoza $4.20 line but that's a heck of a lot better than reverse splits. More partnerships please, we do those better than we do sales forces and marketing.
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Post by mango on May 1, 2024 17:11:41 GMT -5
The UTHR partnership absolutely moved the needle. Without it we'd likely have faced another reverse split to avoid delisting. With it, we are still floundering around the Mendoza $4.20 line but that's a heck of a lot better than reverse splits. More partnerships please, we do those better than we do sales forces and marketing. I disagree. I think the PPS would have spiked a lot on positive Phase 3 and then FDA approval. Are you suggesting MannKind would not have been capable of selling Tyvaso DPI solo? I think we would have if it came down to it, but having the quick upfront cash from UTHR de risked a lot of uncertainty for us. I don’t think giving up majority of the $ to a partner is the way to go at this point considering we have the capability to do it ourselves and reap the rewards (which will really move the needle!). |
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Post by sayhey24 on May 1, 2024 17:20:00 GMT -5
The share price jumped 89% the day UTHR deal was announced (how often does that happen with companies), and up considerably more as the partnership has played out and turned into revenue. I don't have any particular opinion about partnerships or not for pipeline, as I have no expertise in drug marketing. My perspective would be that MNKD is thankfully no longer in a desperate financial situation, so whatever route they take should be a decision being made by knowledgeable people to maximize long term shareholder value without need to factor near term survival into the decision. PPS is still under $5. It wasn’t really a needle mover. Sagard values the deal more than that, but alas, somehow “The Street” doesn’t. Our PPS is a true anomaly. Mango - is the pps $0? Do you realize how close we were to putting the "Out of Business" sign up on the front door? Could the "Afrezza Cult" have saved something? Maybe but things were not good. Now, we are less than 2 months away from what should be our greatest ADA meeting. We have a line-up of experts who are going to being saying how great afrezza is. Ten years ago God only knows what they were saying about afrezza. We will also have whisper discussions on how great the kids are doing with afrezza. Next year we will have the kids approved and maybe with the new data these "experts" can help in supporting SoC and label changes. Without Tyvaso DPI this would not be happening and the pps would not be at $4.34 or 86cents pre-split. Maybe soon we can get above $1 and stay there. |
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Post by cretin11 on May 1, 2024 17:21:47 GMT -5
Thank goodness MNKD did not try to market and sell Tyvaso on its own. Hurts to even think about that. The VGo escapade was quite enough thank you!
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Post by sayhey24 on May 1, 2024 17:36:35 GMT -5
Thank goodness MNKD did not try to market and sell Tyvaso on its own. Hurts to even think about that. The VGo escapade was quite enough thank you! WoW! Could you imagine? Maybe the best thing was we had no money and couldn't. UTHR would have partnered with Print and Mike would have had ZERO sales. The bad news is then we had money to buy V-Go and blow $20M. I guess we will hear next Wednesday if we have "stabilized" it yet or maybe put it back in the dumpster. Speaking of next Wednesday, what is the chance we get some info on Cipla and the plans there? I would sure like to see the study results. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 1, 2024 17:53:12 GMT -5
Just thinking about things that continue to add value (thus market valuation) to the enterprise: * Just had the Clofazimine IND * Expecting the Nintedinab IND momentarily * Interim results from Peds trial imminently * 1Q Earnings / Annual Shareholder Meeting * Numerous Public Presentations leading into ADA in June * CIPLA announcement of some kind Lots of catalyst for positive momentum (and I suppose negative outcomes are also in the deck somewhere). Feeling pretty good about the next 6 weeks as the company tries to establish itself as a growth company once again. GLTA Thank you for this post. I think the 2nd item on your list has also happened. A company that does what it says it will do and keeping the timelines it sets for itself builds investor confidence.
Even though Afrezza and V-Go are now modestly profitable, your 2nd to the last bullet is the one I'm most excited about.
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Post by ktim on May 1, 2024 18:00:11 GMT -5
The share price jumped 89% the day UTHR deal was announced (how often does that happen with companies), and up considerably more as the partnership has played out and turned into revenue. I don't have any particular opinion about partnerships or not for pipeline, as I have no expertise in drug marketing. My perspective would be that MNKD is thankfully no longer in a desperate financial situation, so whatever route they take should be a decision being made by knowledgeable people to maximize long term shareholder value without need to factor near term survival into the decision. PPS is still under $5. It wasn’t really a needle mover. Sagard values the deal more than that, but alas, somehow “The Street” doesn’t. Our PPS is a true anomaly. How far of a needle move should there have been? Obviously Tyvaso DPI wouldn't have some magical ability to return share price to it's split adjusted highs. It wouldn't remove any barriers to Afrezza adoption. It wouldn't reverse the horrendous dilution that has occurred. Viewing it on it's own, the deal with UTHR has made a huge difference. PPS is still under $5, but it was at $1.10 prior to UTHR deal... and that rise is really only on account of UTHR deal. If MNKD had gone it alone, best case we'd probably just now be hitting the market after spending lots of legal $ to get there just as Liquida did... and that would have meant tons more dilution if we made it to that point at all. The Sagard deal would imply about $5/share in profit from the royalty stream. Of course that doesn't factor in MNKD operating costs. Certainly Tyvaso DPI has potential that isn't fully recognized, likely due to discounting from risks of competition to UTHR Tyvaso franchise. I don't think that is unique to MNKD. I think UTHR shares have the same risk discount. Tyvaso DPI now arguably faces two sources of competition. If UTHR's projections for Tyvaso growth turn out to be accurate in the face of this competition, both their shares and ours will will do well in next couple of years. |
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Post by sayhey24 on May 1, 2024 18:01:22 GMT -5
Just thinking about things that continue to add value (thus market valuation) to the enterprise: * Just had the Clofazimine IND * Expecting the Nintedinab IND momentarily * Interim results from Peds trial imminently * 1Q Earnings / Annual Shareholder Meeting * Numerous Public Presentations leading into ADA in June * CIPLA announcement of some kind Lots of catalyst for positive momentum (and I suppose negative outcomes are also in the deck somewhere). Feeling pretty good about the next 6 weeks as the company tries to establish itself as a growth company once again. GLTA Thank you for this post. I think the 2nd item on your list has also happened. A company that does what it says it will do and keeping the timelines it sets for itself builds investor confidence.
Even though Afrezza and V-Go are now modestly profitable, your 2nd to the last bullet is the one I'm most excited about.
I guess we will hear next Wednesday if V-Go is even breakeven. The last update was we were still stabilizing it. In other words it was losing money. Since we have laid off the sales reps and are now focusing on the key accounts we should have significantly reduced sales expense. The key accounts are afrezza accounts. Its possible if we are selling out of inventory and cut manufacturing costs and the sales cost we could see a profit but as a dead product. |
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