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Post by mytakeonit on May 9, 2024 12:51:18 GMT -5
The key to it all is ... MNKD's share price has to get above $5 and stay there.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by jkendra on May 9, 2024 12:53:37 GMT -5
how are you guys thinking about the path forward for MNKD-201? And have you considered potentially working with a partner there just considering how much interest there is in that market? Michael Castagna:And we feel that means if all works out, we should have a clear winner that can help a lot of people and deal with the No. 1 Achilles' heel of the market leader out there. And so if you think about a $3.9 billion drug that's almost $100 million a week out the door in revenue, would I much rather have that for our shareholders versus a partner? I don't think in these diseases, you need a ton of infrastructure that we haven't already built. Meaning specialty support services, pharmacy distribution, wholesalers, patient trainings, and things like that, we have all that.Wouldn't share price be responding very differently if the Street had any confidence in the bolded sentence above? We will need a partner, hopefully we get the right one. Are we considering the term 'Inefficient Market' ? I really can't think of a better example currently. |
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Post by hellodolly on May 9, 2024 12:58:10 GMT -5
Wouldn't share price be responding very differently if the Street had any confidence in the bolded sentence above? We will need a partner, hopefully we get the right one. Mike seems to disagree with you on needing a partner. As he pointed out, we have the infrastructure already in place to bring a drug to market solo. Why give up a large percentage of the profits to a partner when we are capable of doing it solo? The barriers to entry are very low in this particular market with very little competition. Our DPI version has the potential to be the preferred drug over Ofev, in terms of safety/side effect profile, efficacy and patient/physician preference. 100% accurate! |
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Post by jkendra on May 9, 2024 13:01:58 GMT -5
And what’s your issue with that statement? It was a factual statement but not a good way to open the call IMO. I was simply responding to mizzou's question. ? ? ? |
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Post by porkini on May 9, 2024 13:47:45 GMT -5
You would think the Q1 ER was bad the way sp is behaving. Easy there, I bought a small handful of shares yesterday morning before the ER, so it is only natural the SP goes down a bit.  Watch out below, I just picked up another small handful of shares!  |
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Post by cretin11 on May 9, 2024 14:24:53 GMT -5
We’re gonna have to rename it to “the porkini effect” if you keep that up! 😭
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Post by sayhey24 on May 9, 2024 14:28:15 GMT -5
I'm sorry but WTF is going on with the SP? What do you mean? Its MNKD. It usually sells off after the earnings call. It has traded in a $3.50 to $5.50 range for awhile now. The only revenue in the next year or two will be Tyvaso DPI. Maybe in 2 years we get insurance coverage for afrezza after the kids approval but based on yesterday that looks like its getting pushed out 6 months with the FDA 12 month request. The market is not excited about MNKD-101 nor MNKD-201 and they are years away from making money. On top of that V-Go turned out to be a loser after $20M+ invested. No new afrezza trials until we have solid Inhale-1 and Inhale-3 results so no GLP1/afrezza trial and no GLP1 TS announcement. There you go. |
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Post by cretin11 on May 9, 2024 14:36:21 GMT -5
Pretty good rundown sayhey. My point about Mike’s “no need to partner” comment is that the market is not inspired by that i.e. convinced by his stated reasoning.
I was encouraged by the apparent signaling that they’ve come to the same realization about VGo that some of us have had from the time it was purchased. The comment was a bit vague but I’m interpreting it as you did. Better late than never.
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 9, 2024 14:41:23 GMT -5
YE2023 Revenue = $199M
1Q2024 Revenue = $66M
Est. YE2024 Revenue = $265M ish
If I did the math right, that's a CAGR of 33.2%
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Post by sayhey24 on May 9, 2024 14:54:43 GMT -5
You are missing the points: Liraglutide/Saxenda DPI won't work because of pharmacology. It will hit the bloodstream, be degraded in minutes and have no noticeable affect. DPI has no way to get to subcutaneous tissue to bind for slow release The previous may not be true, albumin is also in the bloodstream. Despite that, the slow subcutaneous absorption is an advantage for this drug even when it's a disadvantage for insulin analogs Novo can't make enough Ozempic to satisfy demand. THEY have no reason to put it on Technosphere which will just slow production, and they have years of exclusivity left. Berating Mike for not getting a slice of that pie is like going after him for not getting a billion dollar grant from Mark Cuban. Molecule size is more about vaccines (and possibly other drugs), but I used it as an example of the limits of Technosphere that we don't regularly think about. Similar to how I was once excited about anti-migraine DPI. Then I saw how anti-migraine nasal sprays were coming out. The price of DPI vs aerosol would be a big problem. Technosphere is great, but it's great in a narrow band of drug types that insulin happens to be part of. What does Nova have to do with this? Victoza(liraglutide) came off patent and Saxenda (liraglutide) is coming off patent soon. What I keep saying is put liraglutide on Technosphere. Liraglutide is an analog which should address the issue Native GLP1 has in degrading. GLP-1 analogs such as liraglutide and exendin-4 are not rapidly degraded by DPP-4, allowing them to exert long therapeutic effects that would be impossible with endogenous GLP-1 due to their extremely short half-life in systemic circulation. GLP1 analogs do not work like insulin analogs. Its not based on subq absorption like insulin is. Here is a nice little tutorial www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10304636/Saxenda I think is the only GLP1 approved for kids. It doesn't have the same dramatic weight loss as Mounjaro nor Ozempic buts its pretty good and is the perfect fit for weight maintenance (after you come off Ozempic) and the kids market if offered at the right price. It would also check the box for "oral" delivery. What we learned from the P1 GLP1 trial we have already done and had great results from is TS was perfect for native GLP1. We just spent $20M+ on the V-Go boondoggle. How about we spend $10M to do a pilot which might makes a lot more than MNKD-101 and MNKD-201 combined in a much shorter timeframe? Maybe Saxenda DPI doesn't work but maybe it does. What I do know is there is a huge unmet market need in the weigh maintenance space for the adults and all the kids have today is injectable Saxenda plus it would be an "oral". Could you imagine what Mark Cuban could do with Saxenda DPI if it works nearly as great as Peter Richardson thought TS could do for GLP1s? |
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Post by cjm18 on May 9, 2024 14:55:34 GMT -5
Peds approval more than year away. Same with mnkd 101 Revenue won’t go up much until then. I don’t believe this is accurate. TDPI revenues should more than double over the next 18-24 months Analysts estimates 2025 revenue around 19%to 25% above 2024. 18 to 24 months is more than a year anyway. finance.yahoo.com/quote/MNKD/analysis/Tyvaso dpi sales were up 6.3% last quarter. 4.4% the qtr before. Need 10.4 % to double in 7 quarters from here. |
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Post by sayhey24 on May 9, 2024 15:07:35 GMT -5
Pretty good rundown sayhey. My point about Mike’s “no need to partner” comment is that the market is not inspired by that i.e. convinced by his stated reasoning. I was encouraged by the apparent signaling that they’ve come to the same realization about VGo that some of us have had from the time it was purchased. The comment was a bit vague but I’m interpreting it as you did. Better late than never. Mike did not say V-Go was thrown in the dumpster but Steve basically said they are selling off inventory to try and make a profit with whats left. Day 1 I asked Mike what was he thinking. Thank God thats behind us. What I do know is that $20M+ could have been spent on better things. What we have learned is Mike likes to hire and fire sales teams. I think we have had 4 waves of about 100 reps come and go without fixing the underlying issues as to why these sales reps can't sell afrezza. For some reason Mike thinks he has what it takes to build a world class sales team. I would say the jury is still out on this one. I hope he is right. For now lets fix the three issues afrezza so it will sell; label; SoC; and cost. Now why we have future studies on hold until we have results from Inhale-1 and Inhale-3 makes no sense. We know why afrezza is not selling. We just need to fix them ASAP and get the afrezza/glp1 and gestational trials done ASAP. There is no need to what on either of these. Nope, we are in a holding pattern and it makes my head explode. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 9, 2024 15:14:03 GMT -5
In the 2nd to the last company (penultimate) I worked in, product development spending money, then evaluating performance results from spend to decide if to spend more, was called "success based".
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Post by ktim on May 9, 2024 15:31:44 GMT -5
For the most recent two quarters, MNKD revenues have increased by an average of $7.5M each quarter. If MNKD continues to increase revenues by $7.5M per quarter, the total for FY2024 will be $309M. That would be more than 54% increase yoy. I think one component of collaboration and services revenue may go down by the end of the year as the Tyvaso manufacturing expansion will be completed. That could break the trend you cite (or not). Though the Q1 revenue would seem to raise probability that MNKD will beat the previously estimated revenue for 2024 of something like $250 to $260M (hard to tell exactly since it was given in graph form). Analyst average estimate for 2024 is $260M while the high of the analyst estimates is $309M. Right now I'd expect us to fall somewhere between the average and the high. Will be interesting to see if we get any analyst increases for 2024 rev in response to Q1 earnings. |
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Post by celo on May 9, 2024 15:50:24 GMT -5
how are you guys thinking about the path forward for MNKD-201? And have you considered potentially working with a partner there just considering how much interest there is in that market? Michael Castagna:And we feel that means if all works out, we should have a clear winner that can help a lot of people and deal with the No. 1 Achilles' heel of the market leader out there. And so if you think about a $3.9 billion drug that's almost $100 million a week out the door in revenue, would I much rather have that for our shareholders versus a partner? I don't think in these diseases, you need a ton of infrastructure that we haven't already built. Meaning specialty support services, pharmacy distribution, wholesalers, patient trainings, and things like that, we have all that.Wouldn't share price be responding very differently if the Street had any confidence in the bolded sentence above? We will need a partner, hopefully we get the right one. So you would take moderate risk, moderate instead of small, because we have had bad (partner with afrezza) and good (UTHR) partners, gain a billion or two of market cap and call it a day. Or take a slightly larger risk, produce and sell on our own and possibly see a 10 fold in market cap? I guess when you have been here a long time you get antsy and need things to happen now. I see it the other way. I've been here a long time, Mannkind has been learning from their mistakes and I am willing to wait for them to do it right. The market will give them credit when they show they can perform. I understand, the risks of Mannkind not performing are real with MNKD-101. They have shown they can produce Tyvaso-DPI at high amounts. They have been able to move MNKD-101 to phase 3 rapidly. Maybe Mannkind are the only ones that know, MNKD-101 will crush it and basically sell it self. As it has been said so many times, the market for Diabetes and the market for NTM are COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. One has basically no competition. The other is swarming with long entrenched competitors in an extremely competitive market. STOP COMPARING THE TWO. |
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